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Jan 31st CAD event


BooneWX
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4 hours ago, wncsnow said:

I'm down to 20.8. May make a run at the teens. Can't hurt 

Man you ain’t kidding! 18.5/14.5 outside. Laying the groundwork! I will say first “fears” are present in my mind wrt seeing some of the models coming in drier with qpf distribution but overall with WSW of 4-8” for my county can’t complain. I’m going to be watching the temp today to see how warm we get. Forecasted high of 40.

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I Know What You Mean @strongwxnc I'm at 21 this morning just a little south of you. For once could we actually meet winter weather advisory criteria when we're under a winter weather advisory for our area. If we could squeeze out a 1/2 Inch of snow out of this one before changing over to rain I would call it a win for our area with our luck this year. Always hopeful. Hope everybody else can hold on to snow longer before the changeover.

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I’ll take an 1” please :)

 

GSP as of 650am

 

“Although there has been a trend towards an earlier onset time and ending time which could increase winter weather impacts somewhat. Thermal profiles indicate that sleet/freezing rain will be the primary precip types overnight into early Sunday before becoming rain by noon or so from the Blue Ridge mountains/escarpment northeast to the northwest NC piedmont. Further north within the deeper cold pool there will likely be a more prolonged period of sleet/snow which will transition to sleet/freezing rain later Sunday morning before becoming mostly rain during the afternoon. QPF around a half of an inch should support 2-5 inches of sleet/snow for the northern mountains/foothills with up to an inch, locally higher from the southern escarpment into southern NC foothills. Icing could be a greater impact as up to a tenth of an inch of freezing rain could be somewhat commonplace along the end of the wedge or from the southern escarpment northeast to the northwest NC Piedmont. We will probably see localized totals of two tenths of an inch.”

 

 

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1 minute ago, SouthWake33 said:

Surprised to wake up and see a winter weather advisory for Wake County.  Calling for up to half inch of snow and light ice glaze.

Yeah this is still a blown opportunity though. We needed a Miller A with ground now cold and everything primed.

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5 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

 What is the warning criteria for snow and freezing rain in you area? Those totals seem a little low for a warning.

I'm pretty sure it's 4" here for just snow , but with the combination of the heavy snow at the beginning changing to a long duration of ICE , I guess that's why they did a warning,  more so because of the significant ice

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Not sure what model/models WeatherUnderground uses for their hourly forecast but they don’t have Hickory getting below 34 tonight. Little concerning on how we’ll get any ZR accrual with that. I know it’s an app but the models are clearly not impressed with surface temps in this area and the temp forecasts are typically pretty spot on. These borderline events never pan out.

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13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Hoping since are are now within 24 hrs of the event that the models start catching on to the dry air and stronger CAD

Its been a long time since I posted ladies and gentlemen. Hopefully we all have some good surprises with this storm. I'm just south of you @BornAgain13 in Franklin County VA. Thank you all for the updates and the educational info. Let it snow! 

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1 minute ago, WestCentrlVA said:

Its been a long time since I posted ladies and gentlemen. Hopefully we all have some good surprises with this storm. I'm just south of you @BornAgain13 in Franklin County VA. Thank you all for the updates and the educational info. Let it snow! 

You are actually just south of me. Bornagain I believe is closer to like Stuart area. I’m up in Salem and my brother in law lives in Boones Mill. Should get some nice precip snd rates out of this. Have fun with it!

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