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Jan 31st CAD event


BooneWX
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4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Definitely on the low side of recent model runs, but they still have a day to adjust.

I mean the accrual is going to be a small fraction of what the models are showing with temps hovering around freezing. I'd be interested if there was some type of ZR accrual guide based on temps and precipitation rate.

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5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Definitely on the low side of recent model runs, but they still have a day to adjust.

Ehhh.

This setup is not like a typical Miller B fashion.

Imo the h5 ULL & energy kind of at a high latitude. Considering too the parent High(high latitude) and it's ridge axis entending south. Not much of a meso high into PA,MD,VA.

If you have noticed too the parent high doesn't really move. That indicates blocking up stream.

But considering all in all I'd said that's a reasonable call.

 

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16 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

I mean the accrual is going to be a small fraction of what the models are showing with temps hovering around freezing. I'd be interested if there was some type of ZR accrual guide based on temps and precipitation rate.

Yeah, I remember someone posting somewhere a map a while back (may have been weatherbell?), that attempted to calculate true accrual.

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9 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah, I remember someone posting somewhere a map a while back (may have been weatherbell?), that attempted to calculate true accrual.

I found some slides on FRAM which were mostly what I was looking for. One interesting thing is there wasn't much evidence of temps below -2C helping with ice accrual. At that point it seemed like rates and even wind were bigger factors. https://vlab.ncep.noaa.gov/documents/10157/137122/FRAM_VLAB_Presentation.pdf/50ff7877-c52d-80f4-1413-b294db7710e9

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13 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

I'm honestly surprised the NWS went with WSW 

It can either go to an Advisory or a Warning. Fairly typical. It's easier to do a watch first and then break the counties down by impact when it's time to upgrade.

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12 minutes ago, Disc said:

It can either go to an Advisory or a Warning. Fairly typical. It's easier to do a watch first and then break the counties down by impact when it's time to upgrade.

It will be interesting to see how it's delineated. I figure McDowell mountains will be warning and eastern McDowell will be advisory. 

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59 minutes ago, Dunkman said:

I mean the accrual is going to be a small fraction of what the models are showing with temps hovering around freezing. I'd be interested if there was some type of ZR accrual guide based on temps and precipitation rate.

One would think they could program models to account for that, but what do I know?  :D

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My NWS forecast for Sunday. With the amount of liquid forecasted I hope they have the temp correct.  Any colder and it is lights out.

Sunday
Rain. High near 34. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between three quarters and one inch possible.
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