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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD


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1 minute ago, Ji said:
3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:
They're covering the envelope because it's on the table. Imo- some sleet is prob a lock for everyone near the cities. Can you name any hybrid coastal tracking under us that produced a legit ice storm? I cant either. 

Feb 2007?

That was a sleet bomb tho no? And very very rare honestly. But you're right, that was a coastal gone wrong in incredibly rare fashion. Personally, i love that storm for what it was. I mean our area was a legitimate glacier for days. 

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Should I still be worried about suppression? 

I'm totally good with the euro's progression. Surface and mid level low placement def keeps my yard in the game. CCB won't be locked in for nearly 48 hours. Dont run yourself ragged tracking red schlongs. It will move around, grow, and shrink like it has a mind of it's own every 6 hours.

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Euro is 10”+ for DC and points north. Pretty uniform evolution among the guidance back to a close tuck near OCMD and stall or slow movement for 24hrs or so from Monday through early Tuesday. Given that, I think the Ukie and Euro are still fairly dry...not that I think the RGEM is right, but that position for that much time would argue for a moister flow off the ocean. May come down to small differences in the LLJ orientation. We want it with a bit more fetch off the ocean vs fetch off New Jersey and Philly lol. Either way, fun long duration storm. I’m ready. 

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You’ve gotta like the trends with the low sitting right off Lewes/OC for 24 hours basically. Based on the UL features today across all the models I’m starting to get pretty optimistic about the CCB portion of the storm. 
 

That evolution really starts to bring the huge totals into play and we’ve seen a trend in that direction. Might continue into game time and finally deliver us the jack we’ve been waiting for. 

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The transfer was clean and very similar to the overnight runs of the Euro. One of the things that would make this better is if the 700mb low were to be about 25-50 miles further south. The deformation axis still gets down efficiently into the northern and northeast portion of the sub-forum with heavy snow for several hours north of I-70 and further NE. Even to the south, there would be high ratio fluff that would fall for hours, slowly accumulating with a final storm total of 8-12" from I-66 to Howard Co. Then 10-15" with local to 20" to the north. It was a great run for @mappy and @psuhoffman as it held serve from previous runs, and was in line with the GFS/CMC. One of the biggest differences from previous runs is it actually upped total precip within the deformation zone, so amounts are a touch higher north of I-70. It was closer to a bigger run for the whole sub-forum so chalk another up to a slight positive trend. 

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Should I still be worried about suppression? 

I'm totally good with the euro's progression. Surface and mid level low placement def keeps my yard in the game. CCB won't be locked in for nearly 48 hours. Dont run yourself ragged tracking red schlongs. It will move around, grow, and shrink like it has a mind of it's own every 6 hours.

There's really not much to hate on the Euro.  I know my area/climo, you have a better chance at the CCB than I do, but I don't care how I get there, if I get 10 as shown on the Euro, I'm fine.  I suspect it will be less.  But then again, I never brought into double digits for my backyard, so I'm going to enjoy 5 or 10.

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Just now, LeesburgWx said:

The precip shield seems a bit odd on this run with that track, no?

As mentioned above with that depiction maybe the Euro will trend wetter during the next 12 to 24 hours for Southern sections,  even a bit has significant implications.  

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P.S. nice agreement as well in the WAA precip tomorrow. A couple euro and 3k NAM runs were a bit dry, but now showing 0.4-0.6” of liquid. Nice uniform 3-5”/4-6” type deal that’s going to be falling onto a cold surface. That alone will be really nice. 

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