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Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD


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3 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

It already has worked well.  Analogs. That’s why I asked snippy.

Every storm is unique. Analogs give you goalposts but yesterday for instance the top 4 analogs included 2 storms that dropped less then 3” on the DC metro and 2 storms that dropped over 20” so you gonna forecast 2-25”?  

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Just now, yoda said:

I added the first group just after you quoted my original post which only had the 2nd fyi

Man. That was a solid EPS to end the night. Anybody else pumped for 6z? Alright. I need to sleep a little bit. Can’t wait to track some more with y’all in a few hours. T minus 30 hours until snow!!!!

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

MDZ001-VAZ025>027-029-036>039-503-504-507-508-WVZ055-501>503-505-
506-301600-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T0300Z-210201T0300Z/
Garrett-Augusta-Rockingham-Shenandoah-Page-Nelson-Albemarle-
Greene-Madison-Western Highland-Eastern Highland-
Northern Virginia Blue Ridge-Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Hardy-
Western Grant-Eastern Grant-Western Mineral-Western Pendleton-
Eastern Pendleton-
257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 5 to 7 inches and ice accumulations of up to
  one tenth of an inch possible.

* WHERE...Portions of central and western Virginia and eastern
  West Virginia.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Sunday evening.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

MDZ006-008-011-507-508-301600-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T1100Z-210201T1100Z/
Northern Baltimore-Cecil-Southern Baltimore-Northwest Harford-
Southeast Harford-
257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING
THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 6 inches and ice accumulations of around
  one tenth of an inch possible. Winds could gust as high as 35
  mph.

* WHERE...Northern Baltimore, Cecil, Southeast Harford, Southern
  Baltimore and Northwest Harford Counties.

* WHEN...From Sunday morning through late Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.
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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

DCZ001-MDZ003>005-013-014-016>018-501>506-VAZ028-030-031-040-
050>057-501-502-505-506-WVZ050>053-504-301600-
/O.CON.KLWX.WS.A.0002.210131T0600Z-210201T0600Z/
District of Columbia-Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-
Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert-
Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany-
Northwest Montgomery-Central and Southeast Montgomery-
Northwest Howard-Central and Southeast Howard-Frederick VA-Warren-
Clarke-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper-
Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park-Fairfax-
Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria-Stafford-Spotsylvania-
King George-Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun-
Eastern Loudoun-Hampshire-Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-
Eastern Mineral-
257 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...

* WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow
  accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and ice accumulations of a
  light glaze possible.

* WHERE...Portions of north central and western Maryland and
  eastern and panhandle West Virginia.

* WHEN...From late Saturday night through late Sunday night.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions.

 

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LWX morning disco on part 1

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
350 AM EST Sat Jan 30 2021

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build overhead today. Low pressure will
approach from the west Sunday and transfer off the coast on
Monday. High pressure will build back in by the middle of the
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
High pressure will build overhead today. Dry conditions expected
with plenty of sunshine through much of the day. High clouds
will begin to increase ahead of the next low pressure system
that will arrive from the west later today into tonight. Highs
will top out in the 30s to near 40.

The low pressure system will move along the Ohio Valley tonight.
A surge of warm advection aloft in advance of the surface
low/closed upper low tracking into the Ohio Valley will start to
overspread the area from southwest to northeast over the course
of the nighttime hours. Snow should move into the central
Shenandoah Valley and western parts of the Virginia Piedmont
around midnight, before onward into D.C. around or just after
daybreak on Sunday. A steady period of snow is expected across
the entire area Sunday in association with this push of warm
advection. A general 4-6 inches of snow is expected across the
area with this round of snow. A Winter Storm Watch remains in
effect for most of the forecast area. Once we have observed the
latest guidance and tweaked our forecast to account for snow
accumulations and any ice accumulation, we will decide which
zones would be the most impacted by snow and/or ice, then we
will issue advisories or warnings during this upcoming dayshift.

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Have to keep an eye on the location and timing of the area of heavier precip that develops to the west of the 850 low as it tracks off the coast. This is close over here with p-type as the cold is just wrapping back in at this time. Verbatim probably heavy rain/sleet flipping to snow.

1612202400-JQsPsJNjVEo.png

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