Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Jan 31 - Feb 1 Event - STORM MODE THREAD


stormtracker
 Share

Recommended Posts

23 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Surprised the snow map looked that good here given the lack of precip for several hours, with the banding just to the NW. That has been the trend though the last 2-3 runs, as I told you it would be last night when you were sure this was on the road to suppression lol.

BTW I think you can still do pretty good with a more amped solution...I think a decent front end is likely and then so long as the storm exits more east then north (likely given the blocking) that deform axis will be shifting southeast as it exits and can clip you on the way out.  March 2018 was a good example of that.  

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

Hurts when it happens!  In 1/25/2000, I got stuck between heavy bands to the east and west, and even had sun peaking out.  I measured about 7" while areas all around got double or more.

image.png.89836baeb0fe58deab9da8f68bcc3b9d.png

 

Ironically the same happened to me where I was up in PA that year.  Got about 8" but all around got like 10-12...was stuck between meso bands all afternoon.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

I can't decide if it's filthy or Stimpy after hitting the top shelf indica.

Check this out. Definite west cluster that are likely a clobbering with the costal. Would explain why the 12 inch probabilities went up a fair bit (for reference, the larger L is the op Euro, the rest are the EPS low pressure cluster)

c1992b68dd310e478487ac65f9053996.thumb.png.0a8bc1bb44a687deda621f46dc5d1a13.png

I'd imagine the numbers PSU referenced for the ratio of SE to tucked has drastically changed. 

  • Like 8
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nothing not to like about the EPS.  More amplified less positively tilted trough.  H5 cuts off in a better spot.   Low is less progressive after being captured leading to the bump up in the snow mean.  Most significantly a BIG expansion and ramping up of the precip shield across the members.  Snowfall expanded on BOTH sides of the max stripe!  That is a good sign heading into the home stretch.  

  • Like 23
  • Thanks 2
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

43 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That hole is an area that got unlucky twice. Ended up between bands during the WAA then again during the deform. Subsidence can be cruel. Btw euro started to pick up on that duel banding structure on the NW side that happens EVERY time. There will always, in EVERY storm, be unlucky little pockets like that. I actually ended up in one in 2016. I got 28”, and no I’m not complaining one bit I’m not crazy, but all around me got 30-36”. I ended up in a couple dead zones between banding and oh well. But no model can get either the meso banding or the associated screw zones between them right from 24 hours let alone 72 so I wouldn’t sweat it.  That’s something for the now cast. 

The 1/25/2000 did that to me in Sterling. Huge long lull over top of me with heavy stuff west and east of there! 

Edit: Ninjad

Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Check this out. Definite west cluster that are likely a clobbering with the costal. Would explain why the 12 inch probabilities went up a fair bit (for reference, the larger L is the op Euro, the rest are the EPS low pressure cluster)

c1992b68dd310e478487ac65f9053996.thumb.png.0a8bc1bb44a687deda621f46dc5d1a13.png

I'd imagine the numbers PSU referenced for the ratio of SE to tucked has drastically changed. 

Seems like a pretty wide spread at such short range. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

BTW I think you can still do pretty good with a more amped solution...I think a decent front end is likely and then so long as the storm exits more east then north (likely given the blocking) that deform axis will be shifting southeast as it exits and can clip you on the way out.  March 2018 was a good example of that.  

It will be interesting to see how the mesos roll as we get more into their wheelhouse. The Fgen banding area will make all the difference for some. As long as the front end stays good and there isn't too much warming, a modest back end is fine. GFS is the one model that still annoys me.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned and locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...