Pascy619 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 33 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: RGEM similar to NAM. Most of us are above freezing, but the snowpack melting should be countered by any new additional snow at least. FInally a hit for the northwoods. We need it so bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 12z GFS with a 985 at south tip of lake michigan at 87 hours a step in the right direction nice hit for northwestern areas 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 12z GFS with a 985 at south tip of lake michigan at 87 hours a step in the right direction nice hit for northwestern areas On the range of possible outcomes, certainly an interesting solution to add into the mix. That run has a sharper digging northern s/w able to phase with more southern routed energy and the whole thing quickly goes neutral to negative tilt. I'd place it on the lower probability end of the spectrum to get that well timed phase, though we'll see shortly on the rest of the incoming 12z operational and ensemble cycle if that idea gets any more than minor member support. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, RCNYILWX said: On the range of possible outcomes, certainly an interesting solution to add into the mix. That run has a sharper digging northern s/w able to phase with more southern routed energy and the whole thing quickly goes neutral to negative tilt. I'd place it on the lower probability end of the spectrum to get that well timed phase, though we'll see shortly on the rest of the incoming 12z operational and ensemble cycle if that idea gets any more than minor member support. Sent from my SM-G965U using Tapatalk Just need it a bit further east and game is on. An awful lot to ask for, though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Im good for a quick burst of 1-3" followed by some rain that doesnt destroy the snow pack followed by extreme cold. It would create a glacier that would be tough to melt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I’m heading back to Boone County on Thursday evening. If that low tracks over Chicago as shown on the 12z GFS, gonna be a pretty snowy return. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 12z GEM coming on board also 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 looking more and more likely we will get a solid advisory level snow with this. If the low tracks south of here, there's no chance we'll have enough warm air to keep it as rain 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 if we can pull a 3" snow before the Cold hits we really have flipped the script for this winter. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 It's a pretty interesting scenario on the newer guidance for this storm, but as others have mentioned its still on the lower confidence side given so many huge changes that are still ongoing. It looks like the north Atlantic block is slowing down the remnants of our storm off the East Coast, which doesn't allow the ridge to build as much. The trough out west is now splitting on most guidance, with a cut off developing west of Baja and the northern stream trying to dig in. All of this essentially could allow for a more southern track to the low. There are subtle timing differences with all the waves that are important to exactly how this evolves. From a pattern recognition perspective, having a strong 500mb jet exit region (left front quad) going by to the south, with a passing surface low and steep mid-level lapse rates is all a good recipe for thunderstorms in the cold season. 12Z GFS jet below: 12Z NAM Chicago area average sounding valid midday Thursday (7.2 mid-level lapse rates and some modest CAPE, with an isothermal sounding just below freezing in the lowest 3km would = giant wet aggregate snowflakes): 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 See the GEFS 500mb height trends for the changes mentioned above. Notice the Rex block off the West Coast (cut off upper low under the ridge), block north of Alaska that is delivering the frigid air, heights trending higher in eastern Canada and lower in the Southeast US. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Interesting setup. Not everyday that you are able to snow right out ahead of a deepening sub 1000 mb surface low, and it's not like we'll be coming out of a partucularly cold airmass. Does raise concerns about the magnitude of boundary layer warming and how much snow could be junky in the "warm" sector. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 don't care as much about snow with this as much as preserving snowpack 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: It's a pretty interesting scenario on the newer guidance for this storm, but as others have mentioned its still on the lower confidence side given so many huge changes that are still ongoing. It looks like the north Atlantic block is slowing down the remnants of our storm off the East Coast, which doesn't allow the ridge to build as much. The trough out west is now splitting on most guidance, with a cut off developing west of Baja and the northern stream trying to dig in. All of this essentially could allow for a more southern track to the low. There are subtle timing differences with all the waves that are important to exactly how this evolves. From a pattern recognition perspective, having a strong 500mb jet exit region (left front quad) going by to the south, with a passing surface low and steep mid-level lapse rates is all a good recipe for thunderstorms in the cold season. 12Z GFS jet below: 12Z NAM Chicago area average sounding valid midday Thursday (7.2 mid-level lapse rates and some modest CAPE, with an isothermal sounding just below freezing in the lowest 3km would = giant wet aggregate snowflakes): The plume of steep mid level lapse rates shares some overlap with the arctic front/cold sector immediately behind the low as well. Pretty nice soundings for snow all and all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Decent agreement on a 1-3” event along/north of I-88 in the area.We’ll see how things trend.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I wonder what percentage of 986 mb lows over Chicago lead to snow in Ohio. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 25 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I wonder what percentage of 986 mb lows over Chicago lead to snow in Ohio. Happens all the time, duh. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 972 Low at hour 90 on the 18z. Pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 28 minutes ago, Hoosier said: I wonder what percentage of 986 mb lows over Chicago lead to snow in Ohio. What a trash system. So much potential and garbage looking results. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pascy619 Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 Just now, RyanDe680 said: What a trash system. So much potential and garbage looking results. Don't say that. This is the perfect track for me..lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted February 1, 2021 Share Posted February 1, 2021 I'm hoping for a quick front-end snow, followed by dry slot, then a heavy west-flow lake effect event behind the occluded front as the system pivots away to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 The idea of some snow from this before the arctic blast was nice while it lasted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: The idea of some snow from this before the arctic blast was nice while it lasted. looks good for areas up north. Can't over react too much too any one model run. Seen these set ups surprise many times as the front races in and squeezes out any residual moisture. And yes, were talking an inch or two in a flash freeze type set up and not a large scale moderate event. But I like those type events as a winter weather fan. They can't all be 10" snowstorms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 11 minutes ago, Baum said: looks good for areas up north. Can't over react too much too any one model run. Seen these set ups surprise many times as the front races in and squeezes out any residual moisture. And yes, were talking an inch or two in a flash freeze type set up and not a large scale moderate event. But I like those type events as a winter weather fan. They can't all be 10" snowstorms. None of them have been here. I wasn't expecting a snowstorm and was happy when guidance strayed from the mega cutter idea. Even if the low passes overhead, it's better than going through Iowa and we get to save most of the snow cover. I just hope we can squeeze an inch or two out to freshen things up for the bitter cold to follow. We'll see how it turns out. Went above freezing today actually, so definitely ready for the cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 1 minute ago, McHenrySnow said: None of them have been here. I wasn't expecting a snowstorm and was happy when guidance strayed from the mega cutter idea. Even if the low passes overhead, it's better than going through Iowa and we get to save most of the snow cover. I just hope we can squeeze an inch or two out to freshen things up for the bitter cold to follow. We'll see how it turns out. Went above freezing today actually, so definitely read for the cold. Didn't you just get several inches of fresh snow? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 Dudes, worst comes to worst we miss this first one and we'll catch the clipper swinging through like two days later. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McHenrySnow Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 The RGEM run looks nice if you just look at the snow map. Conceptually, it doesn't make a lot of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AWMT30 Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 RGEM came in nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said: The RGEM run looks nice if you just look at the snow map. Conceptually, it doesn't make a lot of sense. It does because there is a wide expanse of a snow pack to the south and there is a pretty cold air in place ahead of the system. The WAA will produce precip and a good portion will be snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted February 2, 2021 Share Posted February 2, 2021 0z GEFS Mean. Several ENS have 3-6” around here, with a few 6”+. Even one with 12”+ across N IL.. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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