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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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6 minutes ago, caviman2201 said:

Ukie qpf slug bounced back north so hopefully the south trend has had it's fun and the jack has returned to it's rightful place in Manchester/Hereford 

Look at the icon and Ukmet...even the gfs somewhat. We can ALL win with a more amplified solution so long as we can stomach a few hours of sleet or drizzle.

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at the icon and Ukmet...even the gfs somewhat. We can ALL win with a more amplified solution so long as we can stomach a few hours of sleet or drizzle.

Dc loses 850s for 6-10 hours on the uk with some decent rain/mix. Euro had dc below freezing for the most part for the entire column during this time. Hopefully the euro thermals are right. 

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@yoda

on the 10-1 map DC is 12” but the first part of the waa and the deform world be high ratios so that looks like 12-15” to me 

These are all 10-1 and I would adjust up.  Deform will have high ratios as depicted so would the first part of the WAA

IAD 16” 

Leesburg 17”

BWI 13”

winchester 13”

Westninster 17”

Mappy 20”

EZF 11”

Frederick 13”

Towson 17”

Columbia 15”

 

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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ukmet is a great run.

DC about 5” from the WAA thump them dryslot and some light mix then about .7 qpf as snow from the deform. That would probably be another 8-10” or so.  N VA through Central MD jacks. Likely some 20” totals there. 

Agreed. Guidance is kind of converging on central to northern MD for the jack. I mean I probably end up with a measly 15 inches while someone else gets 22 :). I really want DC to get double digits with this one. If we can have a subforum wide double digit event we all end up happy.

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58 minutes ago, LP08 said:

I’m not as smart as most here but here is the CMC at 500.  Seems like a  suspicious Max vorticity  that draws everything further north comparing to 12z.  Maybe someone smarter can chime in.

5D483E8F-C1DC-4E10-A688-2E5E54FF238B.png

16429C03-2221-440D-920A-0DF15223BD88.png

 

 

That is odd but I am not convinced that is the issue.  You can see differences in the 200mb winds at hr 90 before the vortex

NINxcOX.gif

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19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Look at the icon and Ukmet...even the gfs somewhat. We can ALL win with a more amplified solution so long as we can stomach a few hours of sleet or drizzle.

DC always mixes during the big ones. And by always I don't mean usually, I mean nearly 100 percent of the time.  Places like Loudoun, Frederick/Carroll do best often when DC mixes.

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15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@yoda

on the 10-1 map DC is 12” but the first part of the waa and the deform world be high ratios so that looks like 12-15” to me 

These are all 10-1 and I would adjust up.  Deform will have high ratios as depicted so would the first part of the WAA

IAD 16” 

Leesburg 17”

BWI 13”

winchester 13”

Westninster 17”

Mappy 20”

EZF 11”

Frederick 13”

Towson 17”

Columbia 15”

 

I can live with that Leesburg total. Was hoping for 20+ but I will survive.

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18 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

@MillvilleWx totally agree on the WAA providing a widespread low-end warning deal with the coastal being the wildcard. Big dogs always mix, so I’ll accept my sleet if and when it comes Monday in advance of hopefully puking dendrites in the CCB. 
 

I liked seeing the euro come into agreement with the other guidance on start time Sunday. Looks like mid-late morning. I’m stoked for a couple @Jebman Jebwalks in daylight with mod snow.

You'll get those Jebman Jebwalks in daylight with moderate snow. You'll get outright heavy snow too! Then, it will happen at night, and you'll be treated to huge snowflakes blowing by the streetlights! It'll be an EPIC jebwalk!

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