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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Gefs improved again. Honestly the gefs is slightly better then the eps now imo. Lol. CCBs the whole region Monday into Monday Night. 

ETA: if you adjust for their atrocious thermals. But that’s a given. 

The progression/trend gif you’ve been showing today was great to see.  And this just continues that.  Although this run is probably the last we look at the ensembles?

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5 minutes ago, hobbes9 said:

Para only really shows the WAA with no coastal?

ETA: some backside, perhaps .1-.2" QPF? Decent WAA QPF though.

It's been doing that for awhile now. It'll either score a coup or be way out to lunch. Any love on the backend is probably a step in the right direction from its previous runs.

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5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Gefs mean temps are quite warm. Over 1.2” of precip but barely 6” on the snow mean.

 

I know we shouldn’t use mean temps but its something.

This is the gfs, not the ensembles, but this panel shows how much rain falls. Around an inch of rain in the dc metro. 

7A562B97-7F07-4B2F-87A6-FB111AE7648E.jpeg

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1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

It's been doing that for awhile now. It'll either score a coup or be way out to lunch. Any love on the backend is probably a step in the right direction from its previous runs.

FWIW, there are definitely GEFS members that do this. Any member that is mostly blue - that's (WAA only) what happened.

1612342800-mh7gO2UjEoM.png 

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1 minute ago, Negnao said:

This is the gfs, not the ensembles, but this panel shows how much rain falls. Around an inch of rain in the dc metro. 

7A562B97-7F07-4B2F-87A6-FB111AE7648E.jpeg

Would be nice if the qpf was accurate the thermals really are way to high.  Riding that weenie logic to pass the time before the Ukie and Euro run.

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