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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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32 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Which is not so private anymore.  Banter thread?  
 

over or under?  2 minutes before Mappy disappears this post.

eta:  Here at 1550’ in Augusta County nw of Staunton I am rooting for the models with a heavier waa front end thump.  The coastal is sketchy for those of us south and west and counting on 6” over 30 hours doesn’t inspire much confidence.

Over, but you included relevant weather stuff so I left it ;)

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North of Baltimore needs the coastal. I’m pretty convinced most of the heavy WAA wave will get suppressed. It’s the same situation we’ve seen all year... that wave is weakening as it gets suppressed by the blocking. It’s got enough juice to get VA DC and lower MD good but up here I doubt we get more then a few inches from that. It’s coastal or bust. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Not sure I like the 18z euro. It’s dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping 

I’m ok right now. Need this to start ticking back N. Big ones almost always tick north as we get closer so we’ll see. It’s a fragile setup but idk I got good vibes rollin. Worst case I storm chase Lewis de lmao

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not sure I like the 18z euro. It’s dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping 

Looks like best case for dc proper to get a fairly clean 6-12. Maybe it takes the biggest numbers and broadest area off the table but still a great run, right? 

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Just now, Negnao said:

Looks like best case for dc proper to get a fairly clean 6-12. Maybe it takes the biggest numbers and broadest area off the table but still a great run, right? 

EPS should give us a good idea of this is a blip or a bigger concern.  But that front end thump sure is solid 

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6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Not sure I like the 18z euro. It’s dangerously close to missing the capture and escaping 

The developing 850 mb low is just a touch south of 12z at the end of the run. Not sure it would end up that much different overall. Probably a little better for here with temps/p-type.

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1 minute ago, Negnao said:

Looks like best case for dc proper to get a fairly clean 6-12. Maybe it takes the biggest numbers and broadest area off the table but still a great run, right? 

This run would crush DC. The CCB is developing right over them at 90 and pivoting. But I fear that run if continued was going to be disappointing for places north of Baltimore compared to last run.  The low was suppressed pretty far SE this run.  But I’d also be concerned with any further south shifts. I am not worried about north. Never have been. Never thought given the setup this could miss us north. Imo we’re either getting a big snow or it’s getting suppressed. 

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8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

North of Baltimore needs the coastal. I’m pretty convinced most of the heavy WAA wave will get suppressed. It’s the same situation we’ve seen all year... that wave is weakening as it gets suppressed by the blocking. It’s got enough juice to get VA DC and lower MD good but up here I doubt we get more then a few inches from that. It’s coastal or bust. 

It's funny that you always tend to completely unravel as we get close to an event, yet end up being the one who gets absolutely destroyed. :lol:

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Just now, CAPE said:

The developing 850 mb low is just a touch south of 12z at the end of the run. Not sure it would end up that much different overall. Probably a little better for here with temps/p-type.

Maybe...but up here the coastal is even more critical because I doubt the WAA ends up being much this far north. I need that deform band to set to north because south will do a lot better from part 1. I suspect Sunday night DC could have 6-8” and I’ll be sitting on 2” of pixie dust up here waiting impatiently for that deform band to come north. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This run would crush DC. The CCB is developing right over them at 90 and pivoting. But I fear that run if continued was going to be disappointing for places north of Baltimore compared to last run.  The low was suppressed pretty far SE this run.  But I’d also be concerned with any further south shifts. I am not worried about north. Never have been. Never thought given the setup this could miss us north. Imo we’re either getting a big snow or it’s getting suppressed. 

Dude, you know the CCB almost always forms further nw than progged. We have seen that countless times.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This run would crush DC. The CCB is developing right over them at 90 and pivoting. But I fear that run if continued was going to be disappointing for places north of Baltimore compared to last run.  The low was suppressed pretty far SE this run.  But I’d also be concerned with any further south shifts. I am not worried about north. Never have been. Never thought given the setup this could miss us north. Imo we’re either getting a big snow or it’s getting suppressed. 

Do you think the Richmond area is still squarely in the game? I appreciate all your detailed analysis!

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

This run would crush DC. The CCB is developing right over them at 90 and pivoting. But I fear that run if continued was going to be disappointing for places north of Baltimore compared to last run.  The low was suppressed pretty far SE this run.  But I’d also be concerned with any further south shifts. I am not worried about north. Never have been. Never thought given the setup this could miss us north. Imo we’re either getting a big snow or it’s getting suppressed. 

Suppressed south of NOVA even?  You have been saying suppression for a while now.  I am not going to discount anything you think.  

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