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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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@Cashtown_Coop I am pretty sure State College will be well northwest of any bullseye.  You are in the game...but I am even SLIGHTLY nervous about a suppressed outcome here.  As usual, the GFS is adding more noise then it is helping.  We would probably have a more accurate perception of what this storm is likely to do if the GFS simply didn't exist at all.  

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6 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

GFS torches again overnight Sun into Monday.  38 at the surface at DCA.

we are going to have some takers for the 93 hour panel, though.  

Kinda similar to the Feb 2014 storm in that regard.  There was a really awful lull waiting for the upper level energy to catch up and spark the deform banding.  

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17 minutes ago, nj2va said:

And take into account GFS’ whack thermals and its even better.

Verbatim that’s a lot of 33-34F rain for me with an isothermal profile from the surface to 800-850mb. If that’s a smidge colder with a euro or GGEM like temp profile...

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Just now, BristowWx said:

Seems fairly far off shore.  Yes?

Seems to be heading towards a little less tucked in, kinda like the 12z EPS today. It's not really that far to the E, members jump around a lot from frame to frame. it's a smidge further west but more consolidated.

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11 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

Seems to be heading towards a little less tucked in, kinda like the 12z EPS today. It's not really that far to the E, members jump around a lot from frame to frame. it's a smidge further west but more consolidated.

It will likely adjust to the euro more tucked solution thankfully 

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16 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Seems fairly far off shore.  Yes?

It’s west of the 12z gefs. Slightly better ccb into N VA. Also...often with a capture the slp elongates with a double barrel or inverted trough type feature towards the coast. The lowest pressure might be to the east but the Max to the west is typically the one that matters. The mean can be misleading. 

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