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Jan 31 - Feb 2 Storm


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From NWS Sterling:

 

Warm advection envelops the region Saturday night as the storm
presently along the West Coast gathers Gulf Moisture and sends
it our way. With cold air mass in place, precip likely begins as
snow region-wide by late Saturday night. Temps stay a little
milder with the clouds, with lows in the 20s.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A potent upper level low will move east along the Ohio Valley
Sunday and Sunday night, prior to moving into the mid-Atlantic
region Monday. As it reaches our CWA, the development and
intensification of a coastal low is expected. Helping in feeding
this rapid development will be additional upper level energy
that will move inside a deepening trough of low pressure across
the eastern third of the U.S. The deepening trough and energy
that will be intensifying the coastal low will perhaps slow its
forward eastward progress early next week. A cold wedge east of
the Appalachians will set up the atmosphere in which a large
part of our CWA should see, at least, some accumulating snowfall
late Saturday night through Monday. The slow forward progress
could allow for some places to see a continual snowfall or
perhaps some constant bands of light snow.
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EPS is basically locked in. Has been for 36 hours it seems to me. GEFS and GEPS are clearly moving into agreement with it more and more each run. Now just comes down to whether the coastal ends up tucked more NW along the Delmarva coast or farther out east of OCMD. 
 

As far as the WAA precip, locations farther south in VA and southern MD probably get better precip out of that then folks farther north. But then of course they probably miss out on the coastal...

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2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

FYI, not sure that's the best image he posted. It was the OP, not ENS and the WAA snow was still ongoing. I'd add another 1" - 3" to what the graphic shows.

Sounds good.  Biggest concern out this way is that the precip with the WAA fades as the primary dies and then the coastal is too far east.  So far, models haven't been hinting at that so good to see that nice moisture on Sunday continue on the ECMWF.

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Just now, WVclimo said:

Sounds good.  Biggest concern out this way is that the precip with the WAA fades as the primary dies and then the coastal is too far east.  So far, models haven't been hinting at that so good to see that nice moisture on Sunday continue on the ECMWF.

Logically it would seem that a later transfer would imply a longer WAA. But I want both the WAA and the coastal. I want this as tucked as we can get it without changing our eastern friends to rain. Seems like a quicker transfer to draw in cold quicker and then a wobble back to the west is the ticket. I’m hoping for the total 2 day complete stall with the low sitting jus north of OC. Obliteration is my game

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As expected also, the guidance is losing the 72hr long snow event looks. Pretty uniform timing now on the front and back end. Snow starts early to late morning Sunday west to east. WAA tapers off by 0z Monday. Then for 6-12 hours there’s light precip (euro and GGEM) or dry slot (GFS). Then by 12z Monday or so the coastal starts to crank, CCB develops, and hopefully we get powder bombed for another 12-18 hours, wrapping up around 6z Tuesday. Sounds awesome to me.

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3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Deform band signature right through our region clear as day. Definitely Jan ‘16 vibes.

Careful...this is a family-friendly discussion board! :lol:

But seriously, that is a nice signature and a nice amount of QPF for the mean.  The thermals seem a bit tough for DC east/south at least for a time (as always??), but the progression of the 06Z EPS sure looks great.

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