January 27th-28th Boom or Bust Snow Event/Obs

[Icy Hot]

The whole system is moving very fast. Not looking good for sustained period of snow. Down to 42 here at 6:24.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

40 here and some very wet snow mixing in. I'm actually pretty surprised we've even got that. 

[PowellVolz]

The way this is headed, it might not even rain in Knoxville


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[Shocker0]

Big flakes now! Quick dusting forming

[Greyhound]

The way this is headed, it might not even rain in Knoxville


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I know!!! And what’s even more surprising is all the local people I know that are making a big deal of this “non-event”. Schools delaying/closing, etc. for basic a bunch of nothing!!


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[PowellVolz]

I know!!! And what’s even more surprising is all the local people I know that are making a big deal of this “non-event”. Schools delaying/closing, etc. for basic a bunch of nothing!!


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Knox Co is delayed 2 hours


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[Shocker0]

[Shocker0]

And just like that I think the system is out of here lol.

[Wintersnow888]

Same here, Shocker0, and temp dropped quickly from 33-34 to exactly 30 when it started snowing

[fountainguy97]

.15 per hr rates right now. 45.4 and rain. 

[Jed33]

41 and light rain. Dewpoint 40. Don’t see this happening here. Judging by the radar, looks like we need to be in central/Eastern KY for this one. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

We shall live vicariously through twitter:

 

[PowellVolz]

I believe it’s sleeting at my house


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[PowellVolz]

Definitely some bright banding




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[Holston_River_Rambler]

This is also the way:

 

One of those strikes looks close to Carver's Gap. I would love to be up there, (in a decent shelter of course, lol). 

[PowellVolz]

Beach Mt looks purdy





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[John1122]

Snowing but its gonna be brief unless there's some kind of redevelopment coming. Looking like the GFS is in absolutely screaming megabust territory here at this point. Thought that was possible. 

[Greyhound]

In other news......I heard UT hired a new football coach.

[Icy Hot]

MRX has pulled the plug. It's over. Disco: 

Frustrating but also interesting how this system evolved this
evening. The dynamics that the synoptic models where depicting
across the region, especially southwest Virginia and northeast
Tennessee quickly translated across the Carolinas and eventually
Virginia. One clue of this quick translation was the strong
pressure rises over the Tennessee valley. Currently strong
pressure rises are occuring across much of area with deep cold/dry
air advection limiting precipitation development.

End result, snowfall will be less and limited to southwest
Virginia and far east Tennessee Mountains. Have canceled the
winter weather advisories for the northern Plateau and much of
northeast Tennessee valley locations.

[Jed33]

Seems that there are a few flakes mixing in now, but it’s over here.

[1234snow]

Still rain and 37. Precip will be over soon. Quirky system that pretty much skipped right over this area. The warm starting temps made it the nail in the coffin for this event.

[Daniel Boone]

Began snowing here at 8:35. Big flakes early that dusted grass a little then went to rather small flakes. Temps down to 33. A bust so far. Kind of was afraid precip might get pulled across mountains close to and within lp . Mentioned that earlier. Parts of KY doing pretty decent . It's the weakened gap between the two, the great valley.

[John1122]

Much to my surprise, its snowing very hard and its very windy.  Actually hard to see a couple of times driving up the mountain. Almost like a snow squall. 

[John1122]

Not showing up on radar at all, but have steady nickels falling right now. NW flow stuff I assume, since it often isn't picked up by radar. 30 degrees.

[fountainguy97]

Could be worse. Honestly not bad considering I hit 60 yesterday afternoon.  29 now. Going to be a cold day today.

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Dusting on elevated surfaces with flurries under a full moon, peeking through the clouds. 

[Jed33]

Flurries and a slight dusting in the eves of rooftops and car windshields this AM. Actually getting more this morning than yesterday evening when we had a WWA. 

[Icy Hot]

Kingsport got zilch, other than a few crystals on the back porch. Just goes to prove, doesn't matter how much experience anyone has, or how much money they invest in hi-tech models, no one can accurately predict what the weather will do except the good Lord and He's not telling! Lol

[nrgjeff]

Well that was interesting. First John is right the tail end was mostly under radar. Interesting system had a deep DGZ (dendrite growth zone, on sounding) which was closer to the ground late. 

Speaking of that rich DGZ, it was ideal across Kentucky and northwest Tenn. Sounding was nearly saturated at temps between -10 and -20 from around 700 mb up through 500 mb IIRC; I just remember it was rich. Didn't look too hard since Chatty was out, but I quickly double checked after seeing those half-dollar flakes out west. 850/700 mb were the cold side but still ideal. 500 mb was that -23C maximum production temp. It was a textbook DGZ beautiful...

Until what started out looking like an over-achiever outran the low level cold air. Low level CAA had surprised me into Nashville. Of course it could not make it over the Plateau. Of course downslope was fierce in the Great Valley. DGZ followed the wave aloft, but was wasted on a warm boundary layer. Oh Kingsport, welcome to Chattanooga pain! 

I'm guessing Johnson City on the other side did a little better overnight, unless moisture departed too quickly. Any JC reports?

MRX discussion says it well. So the CAA was great west of the Plateau but pressure rises (wind direction too) hurt east. So it's always a zero sum game in the South? Be nice to get a region wide win.

[Daniel Boone]

14 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Well that was interesting. First John is right the tail end was mostly under radar. Interesting system had a deep DGZ (dendrite growth zone, on sounding) which was closer to the ground late. 

Speaking of that rich DGZ, it was ideal across Kentucky and northwest Tenn. Sounding was nearly saturated at temps between -10 and -20 from around 700 mb up through 500 mb IIRC; I just remember it was rich. Didn't look too hard since Chatty was out, but I quickly double checked after seeing those half-dollar flakes out west. 850/700 mb were the cold side but still ideal. 500 mb was that -23C maximum production temp. It was a textbook DGZ beautiful...

Until what started out looking like an over-achiever outran the low level cold air. Low level CAA had surprised me into Nashville. Of course it could not make it over the Plateau. Of course downslope was fierce in the Great Valley. DGZ followed the wave aloft, but was wasted on a warm boundary layer. Oh Kingsport, welcome to Chattanooga pain! 

I'm guessing Johnson City on the other side did a little better overnight, unless moisture departed too quickly. Any JC reports?

MRX discussion says it well. So the CAA was great west of the Plateau but pressure rises (wind direction too) hurt east. So it's always a zero sum game in the South? Be nice to get a region wide win.

Got a Lt. dusting in JC. . Dusting at my home in Jonesville, Lee Co. VA but, just a couple miles north, 2 to 3" across Northern Lee as they got in somewhat on that south end of the large synoptic area that moved through KY. A shot from my home looking North . Stone Mtn. along Ky border snow covered.