• Member Statistics

    16,623
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    friday
    Newest Member
    friday
    Joined
CntrTim85

January 28th Snow Threat

Recommended Posts

Just now, Tealsnowball said:

Hello all!  I've been lurking about on the Southeast forums for a bit and decided to make a post.  I hope we all see a decent brush of snow tomorrow night! :snowing: I'm liking what I am seeing from the HRRR, but is lack of moisture from the NAM something to be concerned about?  Which of the two is usually more reliable in the short range?

great question; frankly i've seen every short range model (3km nam, hrrr, etc) have their moment in the sun and I think it's hard to discount any solution. It would be hard to deliver an objective "this one is better" answer. the lack of moisture from the NAM is something to be concerned about; and i think thats why a lot of mets/media are hesitant in sounding the alarm over this. if the 00z name swings wetter and colder, we're likely to see the "levee breaking" tonight and tomorrow morning.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Tim Buckley:  

For weather model folks, here is the new kid on the block, the IBM GRAF model for our Wed PM / Thu AM system. 

It's still new, so don't have a lot of track record on how it has performed but it actually did alright a few weeks ago with our snow bust.  #ncwx https://t.co/X1HC722Azs

Not easy to tell but that doesn’t look like much snow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

NAM used to have a huge QPF bias.  I'm glad they fixed it because it always did well with thermals.  Now it is an all around decent model in the short range.  especially 3K.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Speaking of the 3K nam

snku_acc.us_ma (1) (27).png

Yeah, this is gonna stop almost everyone in their tracks.  It is so much the outlier at the moment yet you have to consider it given the favorable track record.  Until the 3K brings the wet, this event is on pause.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

IMO I think 12k actually took a step in the right direction with a band traversing at least part of the region. It was literally bone dry previous runs before this. It’s actually progressing in the right direction if any.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

You need the NAM at least somewhat on your side.  This is not good

We would’ve been just fine if it got precip here. It seems like an outlier for 24 hours worth of better runs for virtually every other model. Could be wrong though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BullCityWx said:

We would’ve been just fine if it got precip here. It seems like an outlier for 24 hours worth of better runs for virtually every other model. Could be wrong though.

Could move more wet on next two runs as well

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
19 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Tim Buckley:  

For weather model folks, here is the new kid on the block, the IBM GRAF model for our Wed PM / Thu AM system. 

It's still new, so don't have a lot of track record on how it has performed but it actually did alright a few weeks ago with our snow bust.  #ncwx https://t.co/X1HC722Azs

Looks pretty similar to what I think will happen, but we’ll see 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

the 00z nam fam and the 18z gfs (and 00z hrrr) are still very apart in how it handles the shortwave and that's basically driving every difference you see- it has implications on where the cyclone forms, which as implications on the warm/cold conveyor belt, etc. 

gfs at 6z thursday:

image.thumb.png.72c2a3b277b64a8c9f792539130c9932.pngnam at 6z thursday:

image.thumb.png.25c5202b8bbae94e38f72dc159fae2da.png

the gfs is stronger, digging more, while the nam is much weaker (compare that 552 decameter line). and that controls everything else.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

the 00z nam fam and the 18z gfs (and 00z hrrr) are still very apart in how it handles the shortwave and that's basically driving every difference you see- it has implications on where the cyclone forms, which as implications on the warm/cold conveyor belt, etc. 

gfs at 6z thursday:

image.thumb.png.72c2a3b277b64a8c9f792539130c9932.pngnam at 6z thursday:

image.thumb.png.25c5202b8bbae94e38f72dc159fae2da.png

the gfs is stronger, digging more, while the nam is much weaker (compare that 552 decameter line). and that controls everything else.

Do you believe the NAM is right with the weaker solution?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, BornAgain13 said:

Do you believe the NAM is right with the weaker solution?

in my experience the nam is usually the model to be stronger/more amplified with its shortwave depiction (it's why its so warm and wet so often); so to see it tack the other way is surprising. i don't really have a solid answer on whether it will be right or not though. i'm looking into it.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
17 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

in my experience the nam is usually the model to be stronger/more amplified with its shortwave depiction (it's why its so warm and wet so often); so to see it tack the other way is surprising. i don't really have a solid answer on whether it will be right or not though. i'm looking into it.

You can tell me if I’m wrong but I’m pretty sure Nam went through an upgrade more recently than not and since then it’s typical too amped and north solutions are the opposite now. Really has made you scratch your heads at times recently. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Strait from the Fish mans mouth, His words he just posted:

"I WONT HAVE TO EAT THE ENTIRE CROW, BUT I MAY HAVE TO EAT PART OF IT!
Just wanted to alert you that my thinking may have to be altered for parts of the area. No, there won’t be a foot of snow anywhere, not even close, but there may be more than the light coating I spoke of earlier. The upper level system associated with this precipitation event tomorrow night is so strong that it may literally manufacture enough cold air to produce accumulating snow for a few hours. When air is lifted, it cools, and stable air cools more than unstable air. So vigorous upward motion in a stable air mass can produce significant cooling over a deep layer. That will be the key tomorrow night. We can’t rely on cold air damming, and the true arctic air is west of the mountains and unavailable. So the only hope for snow lovers is to manufacture the cold air via strong upward motion. Stay tuned!"
-Greg Fishel 
 
 
 
 
 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
36 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

the 00z nam fam and the 18z gfs (and 00z hrrr) are still very apart in how it handles the shortwave and that's basically driving every difference you see- it has implications on where the cyclone forms, which as implications on the warm/cold conveyor belt, etc. 

gfs at 6z thursday:

image.thumb.png.72c2a3b277b64a8c9f792539130c9932.pngnam at 6z thursday:

image.thumb.png.25c5202b8bbae94e38f72dc159fae2da.png

the gfs is stronger, digging more, while the nam is much weaker (compare that 552 decameter line). and that controls everything else.

Great post 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, Avdave said:

Strait from the Fish mans mouth, His words he just posted:

"I WONT HAVE TO EAT THE ENTIRE CROW, BUT I MAY HAVE TO EAT PART OF IT!
Just wanted to alert you that my thinking may have to be altered for parts of the area. No, there won’t be a foot of snow anywhere, not even close, but there may be more than the light coating I spoke of earlier. The upper level system associated with this precipitation event tomorrow night is so strong that it may literally manufacture enough cold air to produce accumulating snow for a few hours. When air is lifted, it cools, and stable air cools more than unstable air. So vigorous upward motion in a stable air mass can produce significant cooling over a deep layer. That will be the key tomorrow night. We can’t rely on cold air damming, and the true arctic air is west of the mountains and unavailable. So the only hope for snow lovers is to manufacture the cold air via strong upward motion. Stay tuned!"
-Greg Fishel 
 
 
He is the GOAT IMO. I never heard what his issue was leaving?
 
 
 

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Setup is different so I don't wanna imply that it'll turn out the same for you guys, but the HRRR strung us along all the way up to game time with the bust a couple weeks ago, even got GSP to bite and raise totals that evening. NAM may not be the end all be all when it comes to short range modeling but I definitely could never be comfortable without it in my corner. Pulling for you guys though, hopefully the weekend threat works out better back this way.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.