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CntrTim85

January 28th Snow Threat

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7 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

21z HRRR  a small step back from 20z. Noticed it took longer to change to snow in Southern VA/  northern NC,  just something to monitor 

It actually upped the totals in the southern triangle. I am thinking temperatures will be cold enough for a quicker change in N NC and S VA.

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scattered clouds are starting to creep in in N. Durham.  High called for 52 and I think the highest i saw it get was 51.  Down to 45 right now.  Hopefully it keeps cooling down before the clouds really get in

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Do I stay at home in Raleigh or go spend the night at the farm in Louisburg? Very conflicted, love watching it snow at home, but Louisburg appears to be in a great spot and it would be awesome to wake up to the farm in snow

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18 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

21z HRRR  a small step back from 20z. Noticed it took longer to change to snow in Southern VA/  northern NC,  just something to monitor 

Hmmm... nitpicking. Looks the same to me 

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52 minutes ago, StantonParkHoya said:

Am I mistaken in thinking the old GFS actually showed this first?

You’re correct.  I mentioned the possibility of this storm after seeing it pop on the GFS I think around January 17 or so.  It disappeared in the meantime.

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Local mets mentioning the clearing and sunshine we saw across the area raised the road/soil temperatures.   I feel like this is so nitpicky at this point.  It isn't like it was in the 60s or 70s.  

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4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Local mets mentioning the clearing and sunshine we saw across the area raised the road/soil temperatures.   I feel like this is so nitpicky at this point.  It isn't like it was in the 60s or 70s.  

Yeah I have seen 60s followed by 6+ inches of snow in NC. The rates are a big factor

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13 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

This might be nit picking , but if u trend the HRRR  the last 3 runs , the totals decrease...

They are just getting more realistic..  I highly doubt anyone in Wake sees over 2-3 inches.
Although if you look at that entire map, all the snow decreases...even way up north near Great Lakes

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4 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

They are just getting more realistic..  I highly doubt anyone in Wake sees over 2-3 inches.
Although if you look at that entire map, all the snow decreases...even way up north near Great Lakes

Something about that looks fishy 

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16 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

This might be nit picking , but if u trend the HRRR  the last 3 runs , the totals decrease...

It’s just less QPF. 

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If it helps alleviate any fears for all of you down east, the heavy rain rates just started about half an hour ago and we dropped five degrees in 25 min. I’m in Burke, so I’m not expecting anything but if you guys already dipped into the 40s, I’d imagine you’ll make quick work of the temps when heavier rates swing through. 

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5 minutes ago, PantherJustin said:

Is it just me Or does this thing look pretty far N with initial Precipitation field ? I’m driving and don’t have time to compare it to latest HRRR

It does to me but I didn’t compare to model. 

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Just now, magpiemaniac said:

That cutoff of snow on the western side of the Triad is creeping eastward with every passing run of the HRRR.  :unsure:

Been noticing that. I’d be a little concerned if I was in Forsyth.

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