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CntrTim85

January 28th Snow Threat

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3 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

why are people scared of the nam? I thought it looked fine.

People are having pre-storm depression. It’s easily diagnosed by frequent trips to the whining thread, jumping on one run of a model that hasn’t had two consistent runs in a row this week, and lining up at the cliff edge because it got sunny at their house this afternoon 

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Just now, DC2Winston said:

Ditto. Already on the fringe here. 

Who really wants to be in the bullseye 12hrs out anyway :rolleyes:

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Just now, CntrTim85 said:

Want to talk about a jinx? I just went and bought a sled! 

If it ends up cold enough to sled on this stuff you really are gonna be a hero for this thread.

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HRRR shows temperatures getting to freezing across central NC by 4-5AM and dropping to 29.  That's low compared to earlier forecasts.  How good is HRRR with temps?

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10 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

HRRR shows temperatures getting to freezing across central NC by 4-5AM and dropping to 29.  That's low compared to earlier forecasts.  How good is HRRR with temps?

Gamechanger if that verifies.  I never thought we even had a shot at that, but is it possible thats post precip here in the Triad?  (cold chasing moisture)

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Wakefield nudging totals up in their lastest AFD: 

"Overall, 12z/27 model trends have nudged towards a heavier QPF
solution overnight. CAMs are nearly unanimous with depicting
decent axis of frontogenetic/adiabatic omega pushing across the
area after midnight. Hv accordingly nudged snow accumulations
up along and south of US-40, with a general 1-3" across the area
away from the coast, w/up to 2 inches farther east from Isle of
Wight over to VA Beach/Back Bay area. Light snow or just
flurries expected over most central/nrn portions of the FA. As
previously noted, majority of accums will occur on grassy and
elevated surfaces and car tops. Given the sfc temps and amount
of strong dynamic cooling that will be required to realize the
GFS Para numbers, have tempered that a bit and stayed closer to
NAM/ECMWF."

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GSP on tonight's winter weather:

Quote
As of 230 PM: No changes to the winter weather headlines with the
afternoon package. But will issue a Wind Advisory for the French
Broad Valley and the eastern NC escarpment zones from midnight
tonight to 4 PM Thursday.

The major concern heading into tonight`s winter wx event is
the fact that skies cleared out and temps are running as much
as 10 degrees warmer than expected. And low and mid clouds will
spread in just in time for when we would like some radiational
cooling this evening. Meanwhile, radar returns over northern
MS/AL associated with an approaching vigorous shortwave are not
as impressive as the CAMs have been advertising. This is where
precip is expected to expand and spread east into the forecast
area this evening. This may portend PoPs being overdone east of
the mountains this evening. But assuming the PoPs pan out, temps
will likely start out a little warmer in the high terrain, and
this cuts into snow totals a tad. Still, think elevations above
3500 ft near the TN border should see 2-5", with locally higher
amounts thru late Thursday morning.

Otherwise, no major changes to the 12z model guidance and to our
overall thinking for tonight thru Thursday. Strong DPVA associated
with a passing upper trough will cross right over the forecast
area tonight, with peak forcing in the 03z-09z time frame. Moist
upglide should spread an area of rain across the area this evening,
shifting east during the pre-dawn hours. A sfc low is progged to
develop over the Carolina Piedmont and strengthen as it shifts
east to south of the Outer Banks by 12z Thu. A deformation zone
precip shield is still expected to develop, while strengthening
NLY CAA flow brings low-level thicknesses down across western
NC. As dynamical cooling and CAA peak during the pre-dawn hours,
rain should mixed with and/or change over to snow across the
NC Piedmont. QPF has perhaps ticked up a tad from previous model
runs, but sfc temps will be on the warm side, and should limit snow
accums. Even if we get toward advisory-level snow of 1-2", impacts
on roads should be limited due to warm surfaces. So with all that
in mind, have opted not to expand the advisory beyond the current
Davie County at this time. But Iredell and Rowan do still stand a
chance of those 1-2" amounts if things line up right. Meanwhile,
NW flow should continue to force some snow activity along the TN
border, with snow showers tapering off by noon Thursday. With the
low deepening off the coast and high pressure building in from the
west, should see windy conditions across the forecast area Thursday
morning, with winds beginning to weaken in the aftn. A NAM cross
section shows a mountain wave signature, and so will could see
40-50 mph gusts along the escarpment and in the high terrain. Winds
are being mentioned in the WSW as well. Temps are expected to drop
into the 20s across the mountains and low to mid 30s across most
of the Piedmont by daybreak Thursday. It will be sunny Thursday,
except lingering clouds along the TN line, with temps ranging from
the 20s above 3500 ft, to the lower 50s in the Lakelands.

This winter weather discussion related to the NC Piedmont is only for the areas on the NE fringe of GSP CWA, but it may have some bearing on the western portions of the RAH CWA.

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Quick question. Are we going to have a separate OBS thread for tonight  or use this thread or regular OBS? Preference?  Reminders as you began your cliff diving you can really let loose in whiners thread. I use it and it’s helpful 

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1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

GSP on tonight's winter weather:

This winter weather discussion related to the NC Piedmont is only for the areas on the NE fringe of GSP CWA, but it may have some bearing on the western portions of the RAH CWA.

Thanks and well said. Exactly how I was viewing it in Forsyth county next to Davie...

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1 hour ago, kvegas-wx said:

Not me....but you have no idea.  I'm not entirely sure, but we may have witnessed a few capital crimes on this board over the years.

RAP looks good! 

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Sun is setting to clear skies here in Raleigh. Let’s see how fast we cool. Already down to 48 from a high earlier of 54.

We may actually have lucked out with the clouds dispersing this afternoon. It may have warmed up 5 degrees extra but it’s already fallen past that and will continue to do so before clouds move in. If we start in the 30’s with cold 850’s this changeover will happen much faster. Every minute we can get as snow matters when event duration is short. 

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I will give the v16 major MAJOR props if this pans out. Things been rock solid for days. Good to know with the coming change up of the gfs 

Am I mistaken in thinking the old GFS actually showed this first?

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Sun is setting to clear skies here in Raleigh. Let’s see how fast we cool. Already down to 48 from a high earlier of 54.

Yep, ditto. 

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Sun is setting to clear skies here in Raleigh. Let’s see how fast we cool. Already down to 48 from a high earlier of 54.

Not that we were ever in the game over here .... but it got up to 57 here In Lake Norman/Mooresville area it’s cloudy now still 53 lmao 

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8 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Sun is setting to clear skies here in Raleigh. Let’s see how fast we cool. Already down to 48 from a high earlier of 54.

47 here. Think we got up to 52.

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