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CntrTim85

January 28th Snow Threat

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Just now, rowjimmy73 said:

mainly ice melt cause ive got a tile porch and steps that get crazy slippery. with two new hips and a neck needing surgery id rather not take any chances. 

 

Fair enough, salt away my friend.  And may the snow gods unleash the white powder in abundance upon you.

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1 hour ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Precisely. And persistent cloudiness has definitely kept soil temps from escalating 

Best chance at an accumulating snow in years and people argue over nothing!   Be happy with Nothing to a half inch!

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Skies have cleared and it is beautiful in my neck of the woods.  Temperature already 51 here and they say the high is 52, but I think we get 55-56.

Was just noticing that myself. It’s 53 just south of GSO. Any concerns all the precip could be wasted on cooling?


.

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Just now, jjwxman said:


Was just noticing that myself. It’s 53 just south of GSO. Any concerns all the precip could be wasted on cooling?


.

Absolutely. I'm at 53, forecast high was 48, HRRR showed 48 for me currently. Think a lot of folks expecting snow are going to be in the whining thread, myself included, tonight!

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1 minute ago, jjwxman said:


Was just noticing that myself. It’s 53 just south of GSO. Any concerns all the precip could be wasted on cooling?


.

The fly in the ointment has always been how quick the changeover occurs.  I think this will be the #1 factor limiting amounts, especially south of 64.  So the warmer it gets, the longer it takes to cool down.

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With it having cleared out and looking at visible imagery it wouldn’t be impossible that we get some radiational cooling before the clouds and precip arrive later at night. It is definitely a concern as we’re nearing the mid 50’s at my house now. That’s a lot of cooling that will need to occur n the next 12 hours 

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Just now, BullCityWx said:

We are not going to do this bust before the storm things happen. Period.

Too late I think.  I'm looking at the cliffs east of GSO and I see a lot of forum members standing up there.  :thumbsdown:

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1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

Too late I think.  I'm looking at the cliffs east of GSO and I see a lot of forum members standing up there.  :thumbsdown:

I’m surprised you can see from down there. From your posts on this storm I figured you never climbed the cliff to begin with so not sure how you could see the divers 

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1 minute ago, NorthHillsWx said:

I’m surprised you can see from down there. From your posts on this storm I figured you never climbed the cliff to begin with so not sure how you could see the divers 

I'm standing on Widerman's shoulders.  :lmao:

I really don't want to be a downer on this, I hope it snows bigtime.  I'm just not feeling this one at all and the deja vu is real.

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Just now, kvegas-wx said:

I'm standing on Widerman's shoulders.  :lmao:

I really don't want to be a downer on this, I hope it snows bigtime.  I'm just not feeling this one at all and the deja vu is real.

Miss that guy, he was funny.

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Just now, frazdaddy said:

Miss that guy, he was funny.

Funny thing is...he was often right with being cynical and negative 

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Just now, kvegas-wx said:

I'm standing on Widerman's shoulders.  :lmao:

I really don't want to be a downer on this, I hope it snows bigtime.  I'm just not feeling this one at all and the deja vu is real.

Nope, I’m in total agreement with many of your concerns. All warranted. I do think this storm has major low end bust potential (as they all do here) but after model watching and declaring this storm having as much chance to be a major southeast snowstorm as South Carolina had to win a football national title, I’m staying extremely consistent (or maybe inconsistent) (or maybe South Carolina will win a title?) and thinking this is a good snowstorm incoming for a large path of the state. Model agreement is excellent and the only indication this will fail is experience and current temps. If every model trended to a good storm after being in the dumps for days then we still fail, we may never win 

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1 minute ago, Brick Tamland said:

This is what I am thinking.

 

403358287_1-28-21snowmap.gif.edff9e7c23e754462ac9874e62a76dec.gif

Pretty much in line with my call. I’m sure you’ll let you know how we do a little south of you

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My "yardstick" for quick hitters is January 2011, where Wilmington got about 4 inches in 3 hours. Hampstead, a little town about 10 miles north, got 9 inches. We basically sat on a frontogenesis band that overperformed. not a complete analogy, it was ultra cold that week and we started that event at like 27 degrees.

I personally think that someone in a line between henderson and edenton could wind up with 8+ inches, but that changeover needs to be fast and swift for that to happen, and that's an extreme call. 

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15 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I'm standing on Widerman's shoulders.  :lmao:

I really don't want to be a downer on this, I hope it snows bigtime.  I'm just not feeling this one at all and the deja vu is real.

Forecast has already busted.  Was supposed to be raining right now and I am  bright sun and 54

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25 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

With it having cleared out and looking at visible imagery it wouldn’t be impossible that we get some radiational cooling before the clouds and precip arrive later at night. It is definitely a concern as we’re nearing the mid 50’s at my house now. That’s a lot of cooling that will need to occur n the next 12 hours 

we're gambling here- getting a couple of hours of rad cooling would be killer, but the flipside is that if clouds roll in before sundown, it keeps those higher temperatures nestled in a little longer.

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4 minutes ago, strongwxnc said:

So your saying I have a chance :)

 

That’s what I was thinking!  I’m near Shelby..  Not going to snow for us tonight but still fun to see on that map!

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