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CntrTim85

January 28th Snow Threat

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22 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said:

It had to be done. GFS is all in! 

^ Where it all went wrong. 

Anyways, should be a fun feature to watch, several models show some pretty heavy precip bands forming as eluded to in the main thread. Kinda surprised how the models have went for this today, 0z runs will be fun to watch tonight. 

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I'm in Virginia Beach and we haven't had a good snow in 3 years. I'll take anything to get my littles out of the house. Good luck to all! 

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32 minutes ago, CntrTim85 said:

I'm in Virginia Beach and we haven't had a good snow in 3 years. I'll take anything to get my littles out of the house. Good luck to all! 

I moved to Norfolk last January (from Macon, Georgia), so I'm definitely hoping we something decent! 

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I'm not buying the high totals to the west on the GFS.  I think most of the precip will have ended by the time the cold air reaches that part of the state.  Talking about triad region.

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3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'm not buying the high totals to the west on the GFS.  I think most of the precip will have ended by the time the cold air reaches that part of the state.  Talking about triad region.

So you are saying the Triad will be too warm?

 

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6 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I'm not buying the high totals to the west on the GFS.  I think most of the precip will have ended by the time the cold air reaches that part of the state.  Talking about triad region.

I would agree with you. Think we are a hair west here for the transition. Would love to post up around Mebane and the outlets. Wouldn’t be weird at all around 2am on a Thursday...

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24 minutes ago, eyewall said:

image.thumb.png.7044aefe35ef36d8844dbd3df28c4f4f.png

image.thumb.png.6057ccf53c0ed2e750b74ef26e332f22.png

Trying to learn here so bear with me. Is this where we stand with global and Short term model the area outlined?

 

GFs para, Gfs , and long range HRR showing pretty big events 

CMC and RGEM snow but modest 

euro and NAm very little to none .

 

I talking north central, eastern NC . 

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I could be wrong but I feel like the reason that central/eastern stands the best chance is because the low will get cranking off the coast and the CAA from the north will coincide with banding on the west side of the storm.....  I think triad is too far west for this dynamic process....

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My final call is as follows:

Triad: 2-3 inches

RDU: 4-6 inches

Fayetteville: 2-3 inches

Wilmington: Trace-1 inch

Greenville NC: 2-3 inches

Eastern coastal plain North of Greenville: 5-7 inches (Jack pot)

Virgina Beach: 2-3 inches

 

My final, amateur call. Good luck to all!

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My call is most of Wake will see dusting to 1".  

That EPS map is assuming a 10:1 ratio and it sticking.  Warm surface temps for much of the storm will greatly reduce ratio and accumulation.  
I still feel the other maps are way overdone..   

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