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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


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22 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is getting even more and more exciting!! Just did an update to my forecast. I hate to go so high given the band doesn't seem to pivot but I think when accounting for the ratios (which I think could be 15:1 - 18:1 during height) and QPF being forecast...these higher end totals are doable. 

I do have the concerns in the CT River Valley but didn't incorporate that onto the map but did so in discussion mentioning totals maybe closer to 12''.

snow map update social.png

If I get 18-24:  

 

I PROMISE to come to your house and play a Free 30 Minute Concert.  Promise.  
 

That ain’t happening.  But I sure hope do.  

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Just now, TheSnowman said:

If I get 18-24:  

 

I PROMISE to come to your house and play a Free 30 Minute Concert.  Promise.  
 

That ain’t happening.  But I sure hope do.  

do you take requests? 

(and do you know how to play any Taylor Swift songs) on the accordion? That would be sick

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24 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

This is getting even more and more exciting!! Just did an update to my forecast. I hate to go so high given the band doesn't seem to pivot but I think when accounting for the ratios (which I think could be 15:1 - 18:1 during height) and QPF being forecast...these higher end totals are doable. 

I do have the concerns in the CT River Valley but didn't incorporate that onto the map but did so in discussion mentioning totals maybe closer to 12''.

snow map update social.png

Big balls bro. I like it. More aggressive that my weenie arse which is crazy so GL. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

do you take requests? 

(and do you know how to play any Taylor Swift songs) on the accordion? That would be sick

I don’t play Easy crap like Taylor Swift.  I’m a World Champion.  You want Chopin, Oscar Peterson, Balkan, Klezmer, Italian, Jobim, or even Rock or 80’s Pops hits yes.  Swift?  I could do Swift half asleep with 2 fingers.  

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Big balls bro. I like it. More aggressive that my weenie arse which is crazy so GL. 

The only reasons why I'm doing so is;

1) I think snow ratios easily approach 15:1 - 18:1 during the height...could even argue as high as 20:1

2) QPF...these are juicy numbers 

3) Looking at max omega within the DGZ...certainly enough to result in 2-3'' per hour rates and I would think those happen for a good 4-6 hours. 

The non-pivot factor is a flag but I think what I mentioned above should outweigh that

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I feel like every model run here is the same...they all have that 495 to ORH belt in the 12-18” range regardless of what is going on east or west of here. 

If the entire thing ticks a little more east then maybe s could go higher as it would likely increase our residence time in the WCB/firehose combo, but really only a difference of a couple hours or so. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I feel like every model run here is the same...they all have that 495 to ORH belt in the 12-18” range regardless of what is going on east or west of here. 

If the entire thing ticks a little more east then maybe s could go higher as it would likely increase our residence time in the WCB/firehose combo, but really only a difference of a couple hours or so. 

It's been like 5 days now of E.MA high-confidence in the firehose of moisture.  It has been remarkably steady.  Temp concerns aside, the moisture has been locked in for days there.  You are going to get smoked in southern Middlesex Cnty.

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2 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

The only reasons why I'm doing so is;

1) I think snow ratios easily approach 15:1 - 18:1 during the height...could even argue as high as 20:1

2) QPF...these are juicy numbers 

3) Looking at max omega within the DGZ...certainly enough to result in 2-3'' per hour rates and I would think those happen for a good 4-6 hours. 

The non-pivot factor is a flag but I think what I mentioned above should outweigh that

If I get 20” I’ll come over and setup my dj equipment to spin Taylor Swift songs for you for as long as you want. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I have low confidence here. 

Just go 2-14” for Weymouth and leave it to next shift. 

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It's been like 5 days now of E.MA high-confidence in the firehose of moisture.  It has been remarkably steady.  Temp concerns aside, the moisture has been locked in for days there.  You are going to get smoked in southern Middlesex Cnty.

Yep, firehose out of the east is usually very good over interior E and C MA. Don’t think we have any real temp issues this far west..maybe closer to 128/95 they do, though my gut says they are ok there as well.

We might change over to a few pellets or even some DZ/FZDZ in the dryslot but that is immaterial to the snowfall forecast. Might cost us an inch or so. 

And as we thought...you are going to get 30 to 1 fluff up there with ML deformation (even if it’s semi-weak) with upslope assist. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Just go 2-14” for Weymouth and leave it to next shift. 

Yep, firehose out of the east is usually very good over interior E and C MA. Don’t think we have any real temp issues this far west..maybe closer to 128/95 they do, though my gut says they are ok there as well.

We might change over to a few pellets or even some DZ/FZDZ in the dryslot but that is immaterial to the snowfall forecast. Might cost us an inch or so. 

And as we thought...you are going to get 30 to 1 fluff up there with ML deformation (even if it’s semi-weak) with upslope assist. 

I have a feeling the meat of the firehose will be south of me, like March 2013...I know its progressive, but I feel like it will be better south me, then the H7 low will curl around  north of me.

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