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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


Typhoon Tip
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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

 

download - 2021-01-30T193109.916.png

download - 2021-01-30T193134.953.png

 

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think it will be as bad as that map implies, but one or two more tics, and it could be.

I still expect a tic or two se at the end.

 

Just now, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The melts would be literal all timer stuff.

Ants squad car buried up to the mirrors while Ray bails out the foot of rainwater in his basement.

There seems to be some bad information out there.  

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3 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

He knows , he’s the king of setting the bar so low you can only be pleasantly surprised .  :)

It’s all about reasonable expectations, no need to go wild with everything in flux, ha.  I’m always optimistically hopeful for better outcomes but you gotta be reasonable.  Everyone also expects some SE ticks, it’s the EURO.  We just like to get a little snow here and there and not whiff totally.

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2 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

The melts would be literal all timer stuff.

Ants squad car buried up to the mirrors while Ray bails out the foot of rainwater in his basement.

I was trying to find where everyone jumps into the black hole to add to this but i didn't have it on my laptop.....lol

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Just now, IowaStorm05 said:

Usually not much of a valley curse area like CT River valley and other places, but my town is in a small scale valley and river and I like how the models remind me of it often: 

 

You can't fight topography.  I have had storms here where I could walk 20 minutes up the hill to more snow.

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8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If you can convince everyone in your life that 3” is a pleasant surprise , I gotta give you props 

Do you not see how many obs and photos (car topper! radar!) I take of a surprise 3-inch snowfall?  How is this news?  Everyone knows it lol.  I love snow, I’m in my glory wandering around with the dog in a few inches of fresh.  Folks and their jackpot fetishes... just need a few inches every few days.

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I’m still convinced this front end thump is for real and it’ll be mostly snow for a lot of the forum.  Models seem to be struggling a bit on the low level temps a bit and determining where that changeover occurs.  The levels above there look plenty cold.   1-2C in the 925mb level are making all the difference in models right now.  

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32 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Looks great. Flirt with the taint, win the prize:

image.png

precip is also long gone by that time , it wraps up 6 or so hours earlier, here are the temps when heavy stuff is winding down.. surface is a bit warm yes, 925s and up plenty cold during steady precip, temps just off the deck don't warm until things shut off.  I will be watching surface temp trends though. 

ecmwf-deterministic-hartford-t850-2234800.png

ecmwf-deterministic-hartford-precip_1hr_inch-2245600.png

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I’m still convinced this front end thump is for real and it’ll be mostly snow for a lot of the forum.  Models seem to be struggling a bit on the low level temps a bit and determining where that changeover occurs.  The levels above there look plenty cold.   1-2C in the 925mb level are making all the difference in models right now.  

I mean, that’s a pretty good look.  The thermals are at the end of the panel obviously, so that snow has already fallen even if it warms up after.

3103169B-97A6-4A73-8BCF-576B5EAA3AEE.thumb.png.cabb5b65e9e1e009addc886533876df6.png

E5BF79A6-0EC1-4ACA-BA6F-D2FBFADA3904.thumb.png.2d7824e161e513c492205c0dae505e14.png

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