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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


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Just now, dryslot said:

My point is the trend is NW, And Nam continues it since 18z at 00z, Nothing more, And Nam at the end of its range, Wouldn't be writing a forecast based on it.

You seemed to imply it was bad for eastern areas....not at this point IMO. We all needed things to trend back.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You seemed to imply it was bad for eastern areas....not at this point IMO. We all needed things to trend back.

I didn’t read it as an implication about anywhere else.  He just said what it showed.  Eastern areas are a lock for big snows from the NNE standpoint.  A NW run is not bad at all when it was threatening full on suppression depression for most of the forum.

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

The NAM seems a little more "thumpy" though? Still looks with the quick occlusion b/c the inflow shuts off pretty quickly. Not a total fan of how quickly that fronto lifts north...really was hoping it would pivot. But...if it can sit and slowly rot somewhere...someone pulls a 16-18

Yea, I wasn't crazy about that, either.

NAM is usually pretty good with that, as well as mid level warming.

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Just now, powderfreak said:

I didn’t read it as an implication about anywhere else.  He just said what it showed.  Eastern areas are a lock from the NNE standpoint.  West is not bad at all when it was threatening full on suppression depression for the forum.

He just said eastern areas may not like it...no specification. But he elaborated that he meant CC, which I get.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

It’s gonna be all about the initial thump here, and maybe we get some CCB love if the low redevelops as it scoots East.

You see it time and time again....everyone talks up how slowly it moves...capture this, and cut off that....crawl over there....then as we get near the event...."nice thump".....

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5 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I guess we can live with it..........:)

I was saying earlier...this is akin to one of the post ERC hurricanes.....as it approaches, the cat 4-5 winds go "poof", as the circulation becomes large and ragged, and the weenies start to focus on the areal coverage of surge and cat 1-2 winds.

Same thing here.....

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Just now, dryslot said:

Not thinking were going to see it here with this.

Nope.  Shitstreak halts this bowling ball in its tracks and the main s/w than has to undercut it while the backside energy has no where to go but carve itself underneath the main s/w, which than elongates the entire system.

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Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

Nope.  Shitstreak halts this bowling ball in its tracks and the main s/w than has to undercut it while the backside energy has no where to go but carve itself underneath the main s/w, which than elongates the entire system.

Yeah, At this point, Just keep it close by, Obviously we would like this to close and stack east of here, But not going to happen so we play the hand that's dealt, Still a nice event for many in this crap winter.

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Can always do remote learning for sure.  The public has been trained.  Use technology on bad weather days.  Didn’t have that option or infrastructure in the past for sure.

It’s more complicated than it seems...is every school going to continue to buy computers for every student when the federal government isn’t picking up the tab? And while it’s no difference to have a remote learning day when you are already fully remote, for schools that are in person, having to suddenly go remote on a couple hours notice after a 5:30 am phone call, it a huge pain in the ass.
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