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Watching closely .. February 1-3rd for moderate to major coastal event


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3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

This could end up being congrats DC with the first qpf max before it dumbbells into ENE with the second max.

I honestly think this is the usual midrange goofy BS that always seems to happen with every system at this range.
 

12/17 did this BS Too..it was looking great, then it went haywire for a couple/few days too.  Still lots of time to go here.  Personally I think this will come back by mid weekend. 

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Just now, WinterWolf said:

I honestly think this is the usual midrange goofy BS that always seems to happen with every system at this range.
 

12/17 did this BS Too..it was looking great, then it went haywire for a couple/few days too.  Still lots of time to go here.  Personally I think this will come back by mid weekend. 

It's not even gone yet. LOL

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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I honestly think this is the usual midrange goofy BS that always seems to happen with every system at this range.
 

12/17 did this BS Too..it was looking great, then it went haywire for a couple/few days too.  Still lots of time to go here.  Personally I think this will come back by mid weekend. 

But it’s not just one run or even one cycle of runs. Past several cycles with practically everything but the gfs69 is pushing the intial occlusion south. 

I’m not mailing anything in...just stating what I see. 

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

But it’s not just one run or even one cycle of runs. Past several cycles with practically everything but the gfs69 is pushing the intial occlusion south. 

I’m not mailing anything in...just stating what I see. 

12/17/20 did the same thing, 1/27/15 was gone too, then came back 2-3 days before go time.  Feb 13 shit the bed for a while too...they/most all go awry it seems at some point is my feeling.  
 

That’s my thought/feeling on this.  I don’t think they(models) know yet?  That’s why we’re seeing this now.  And it could slip east/south but I’m not thinking that currently. 

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14 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Eh, We probably have a better idea by 0z tomorrow night where this is heading.

The ull traversing over Jimmy’s head keeps trending further west and pushing the initial occlusion further sw. It doesn’t matter much for you as you’ll get the secondary swing but down here, we need that trending further east or weaker. 

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The thing that makes the Pope look really bad is he was so adamant he was going to be right.. was very smug about it. Then when he was 110% wrong... he didn’t own up to and admit his mistake. He just stopped posting. Everyone makes mistakes and busts. But own  up to it @jbenedet. Learn and understand why it happened and where you went wrong. Your’re fresh out of college and young. Don’t just run away with the deflated football. It’s a really bad look 

ill just leave this here:

   On 1/16/2021 at 1:53 PM,  Damage In Tolland said: 

4”+ is a lock OTG by this time next Sat

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

The ull traversing over Jimmy’s head keeps trending further west and pushing the initial occlusion further sw. It doesn’t matter much for you as you’ll get the secondary swing but down here, we need that trending further east or weaker. 

It is lowering the heights over my head but it also sends the slp further SE as depicted by the GFS, Doesn't get much precip here as it swings it out pretty far to the east to clip DE Maine but i'm not going to sweat the fine details yet, A lot going on in the flow.

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3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

We desperately need some met input because folks are gone 

My opinion isn’t it’s gone at all...I just think it’s the mid range goofy BS that always seems to happen.  We knew there’d be changes..some are real and some seem to wash out over time so to speak.  We still don’t know where, and exactly how this all evolves yet.  So everything is still on the table with this.  

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