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January 30-February 1 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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I'm back tonight with MTF so we'll both be diving into stuff. Can't say much about the slight drop in forecast totals since I recently woke up lol. I'll defer to those who have been closely following the data all day for now and probably chime in later when I've looked at more stuff.

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4 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Here’s the 18z Euro 10:1. I refuse to post the weenie kuchera in order to avoid mass hysteria in LOT

 

image.png

Not gonna complain but hope some of the better banding can survive a little longer.  Quite a tease around here on multiple models.

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4 minutes ago, pondo1000 said:

ILN dropping what watches? I didn’t see any watches from them?

Quote

Winter Storm Watch


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
331 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

INZ050-OHZ026-034-035-042>045-051-052-301000-
/O.CON.KILN.WS.A.0001.210131T0000Z-210201T1200Z/
Wayne-Hardin-Mercer-Auglaize-Darke-Shelby-Logan-Union OH-Miami-
Champaign-
Including the cities of Richmond, Kenton, Ada, Celina, Coldwater,
Wapakoneta, St. Marys, Greenville, Sidney, Bellefontaine,
Marysville, Troy, Piqua, Tipp City, and Urbana
331 PM EST Fri Jan 29 2021

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY EVENING
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...

* WHAT...Heavy wet snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5
  to 8 inches possible.

* WHERE...Portions of East Central Indiana and Central and West
  Central Ohio.

* WHEN...From Saturday evening through Monday morning.

* IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... The heaviest snow will fall on Saturday
  night into Sunday morning.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation.

 

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2 hours ago, Gino27 said:

ILN backtracking with totals. Looks like my 741 day no WSW streak will survive. 

I think I may beat that. The likelihood of any WSW down here is extremely low, unlike our chances at going more than 741 days with no more than 2.5” of snow in a 24 hour period.

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The 18z Euro is the first Euro run to move Cedar Rapids out of the 6+" 10:1 snowfall.  On top of that, the 00z HRRR is even warmer once again and, like the NAMs, brings plain rain up into Cedar Rapids.  This formerly "locked-in" snow event is fading fast over here.  Perfect low track, strong storm, but not enough cold air.

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3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The 18z Euro is the first Euro run to move Cedar Rapids out of the 6+" 10:1 snowfall.  On top of that, the 00z HRRR is even warmer once again and, like the NAMs, brings plain rain up into Cedar Rapids.  This formerly "locked-in" snow even is fading fast over here.  Perfect low track, strong storm, not enough cold air.

Even though what's going on Canada is helping keep the track rather flat, the antecedent airmass just isn't that great.

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0z HRRR says areas south of I-80 in NE Illinois gets 9-10 inches of cement based off of the kuchera ratio, whereas areas north of I-80 have a slightly drier snow.  That's going to cause some damage.  At least for here the 0z HRRR shows just under 4 inches of cement via kuchera ratio.  I'd gladly take 4 inches of extremely wet snow over 10 inches of extremely wet snow because I like having the power on.

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