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January 30-February 1 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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The Euro is very close to the UK over here, but the UK takes the snow band east while the Euro east-southeast.
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Much less clownish Kuchera map. Nice spread the wealth as modeled on this run, with some lake enhancement into southeast WI and northeast IL. f7e6102f038b6144cabba91d30cd3e45.jpg

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1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Nice shift north from the UKIE.  Again, not expecting the brunt of this but even a 2-4" deal would be welcomed.  Weak LES signals showing up but would like less dry air, higher inversion heights and colder air at 850 before I really got excited about that.

I agree. But there's still room for it to shift further north. A lot of moving parts for complete consensus. Like our recent storm which came surprisingly further north overtime. The two things we must monitor if we want a shift further north is the massive trough to our east and the piece of energy near Hudson Bay and its downstream impacts on our storm. The massive NAO block near Baffin Island will likely rip apart our storm, should it progress further north, limiting how much snow we can get. But I'd be okay with another 2-4" storm. Like how we nickeled and dimed our way to average last winter. 

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10 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

I agree. But there's still room for it to shift further north. A lot of moving parts for complete consensus. Like our recent storm which came surprisingly further north overtime. The two things we must monitor if we want a shift further north is the massive trough to our east and the piece of energy near Hudson Bay and its downstream impacts on our storm. The massive NAO block near Baffin Island will likely rip apart our storm, should it progress further north, limiting how much snow we can get. But I'd be okay with another 2-4" storm. Like how we nickeled and dimed our way to average last winter. 

Whats interesting regarding the general public is generally numerous 2-4" events plus some sustained cold/snow cover will make a lot assume it was a harsh winter. 

The average Joe commuting to work or walking his dog won't really notice the difference between a 3" snow that slowed down his commute substantially compared to a 4-6" event that would have done the same thing and left the ground looking just as white. 

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Euro looks somewhat similar to what happened with the last storm in N IL. There will be a large area that gets less snow while the lake helps others out. That's of course taking the run verbatim and there's no reason to do that, but if that run transpired, I'd be in a bad mood. lol

I really prefer a more east-west orientation. 

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51 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Much less clownish Kuchera map. Nice spread the wealth as modeled on this run, with some lake enhancement into southeast WI and northeast IL. f7e6102f038b6144cabba91d30cd3e45.jpg

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May be some heart attack stuff in the main band.

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2 minutes ago, McHenrySnow said:

Euro looks somewhat similar to what happened with the last storm in N IL. There will be a large area that gets less snow while the lake helps others out. That's of course taking the run verbatim and there's no reason to do that, but if that run transpired, I'd be in a bad mood. lol

On this past storm you were worried about a miss south until 24 hours out. The best banding ended up NORTH OF MADISON. You should like where you sit with this one. Besides, doesn't the lake help out in lakeshore counties in most mid-winter snowstorms around here?

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1 hour ago, StormChaser4Life said:

UKMET trying to crush my hopes and dreams. I want to believe I have a shot with this but definitely have the I80 north special vibes as usual.

Weren't you worried about a miss south yesterday?  :lol:

What is your biggest snow so far this season?

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5 minutes ago, tuanis said:

On this past storm you were worried about a miss south until 24 hours out. The best banding ended up NORTH OF MADISON. You should like where you sit with this one. Besides, doesn't the lake help out in lakeshore counties in most mid-winter snowstorms around here?

That's a baldface lie but whatever. 

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Obviously the lake can enhance totals, that's not my point, My point is areas in NE IL that end up north of the main band have that as a cushion while inland areas don't. Hence why I'd prefer not to have the E/SE track of the Euro. I'm not worried one way or the other at this point. It's still quite a ways out and I'm not planning on riding every model run like last time. 

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5 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Maybe it was the guy in Cary.

I was worried on Thursday when models were still trending south. Both Cary and I did make final guesses that were low (4 and 5" respectively). Mine panned out as we got 4" (though, that may be a slightly rounded up version of the actual total from averaging multiple measurements, lots of drifting). He busted a bit high. The LOT snow map shows the painful bullseye of lower totals across Winnebego-Boone-McHenry Counties, which, aside from the megaband that blasted Wisconsin, I was prepared for. 

Honestly, it was Madison getting 6-8" that was the real kick in the balls. 

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27 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Weren't you worried about a miss south yesterday?  :lol:

What is your biggest snow so far this season?

I was! I was on the northern fringe yesterday of the heaviest swath. Now back to the southern fringe. I can't win this winter man. Feel like north shifts aren't done either. My earlier call of another I80 north special will probably be right. Euro still good here but a little too close for comfort. Biggest snow so far here was like 2.5-3in after the ice storm on New Year's Day. Forever riding the gradient here. It always seems to ride along I74 bisecting my county. 

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