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January 30-February 1 Winter Storm


Hoosier
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The players on the field here are mostly the same as for the last system. Big block over hudson bay and some confluent flow out east. If I had to stab, I would say that this is rather unlikely to be a big rainer for the sub, especially east of the Mississippi and that even if it does rain, a front end thump looks likely.

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

The players on the field here are mostly the same as for the last system. Big block over hudson bay and some confluent flow out east. If I had to stab, I would say that this is rather unlikely to be a big rainer for the sub, especially east of the Mississippi and that even if it does rain, a front end thump looks likely.

Maybe, just MAYBE the confluence will back off just a tad and this system can be what we all thought tonight's was going to be.

Hey, at least we've gone from complaining about a zzzzz pattern with no systems to complaining about how the systems always downtrend from the medium range. That's progress...right?

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I figure with this system that while it could certainly be something decent, since we're skipping the 20" totals phase of modeling that our expectations will be more easy to meet this time around. 

That's not to say that I wouldn't want the models to go bonkers, but...

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Definitely another system to track but considering Sunday is 5 days away, I'd snooze it til Saturday night. 

 

Jokes aside it has that look like it starts as a wave of WAA snow then gets squashed a bit by the block? Those WAA snows often produce good thumps then dryslot or turn to rain. Or am I totally seeing the modeled evolution wrong lol. Maybe the block will help? Stormfanaticind?

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No to a slop fest here, maybe it ends as slop if we dry slot, though those details still too early, as we saw with how current event totally changed evolution from a few days before it. The non-GFS guidance is cold enough aloft for most of it. It's another beggars can't be choosers event lol. Without the Hudson Bay block, not a chance we'd get snow with that antecedent setup.

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6 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

No to a slop fest here, maybe it ends as slop if we dry slot, though those details still too early, as we saw with how current event totally changed evolution from a few days before it. The non-GFS guidance is cold enough aloft for most of it. It's another beggars can't be choosers event lol. Without the Hudson Bay block, not a chance we'd get snow with that antecedent setup.

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As long as the block doesn't pull a stormfanaticind and repel all the precip, id definitely imagine we are good for all or mostly snow here. What kills me is I can't believe how model consensus is meaning nothing this year. I mean it's not like this event is on one or two models. There's lots of consensus on some sort of storm this weekend. What will happen? Who the hell knows.

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