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Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm


LVblizzard
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We have the euro and almost every other model still not giving up on SE PA while the NAM seems to be lost in space. I dont trust the hrrr and haven't given it an ounce of weight in this type of situation. Yes the NAM shows a way we could fail but with so much other data insisting on a big E and SE PA hit it is just hard to think the NAM is correct. The hits are getting stronger yet the NAM miss is getting wider.  Either setting up a massive massive fail by every other model or the NAM is just having a tough time here. Guess we find out in about 15 hrs.

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6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

NAM has to be wrong this isn’t possible this close to a storm right? 

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Not only is it the OP, but ALL 51 members average a foot of Snow for Philadelphia. Who wants to bet the NAM against that? Obviously the NAM could be right but I would not be willing to bet on it lol 

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4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

@Wentzadelphia...come home!!

I knew this would happen. I’m in dover nj right now. My best shot would be tomorrow during the break but I doubt it. Could you imagine if 00z euro and NAM give northeast Philly more than me out here? I swear im the biggest jinx in the world it makes absolutely no sense

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5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

I knew this would happen. I’m in dover nj right now. My best shot would be tomorrow during the break but I doubt it. Could you imagine if 00z euro and NAM give northeast Philly more than me out here? I swear im the biggest jinx in the world it makes absolutely no sense

In a "worse case" scenario Dover gets the same as NE PHL.  Odds would favor Dover getting more, stay put.  

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2 minutes ago, bpjones595 said:

Fwiw 00z HRRR looks better through hour 12. Looks like it may actually fill the dry slot back in early Monday am


.

Was just going to post this lol. Indeed the latest run is “leaning” more towards pushing the banding back into pa. We shall see how it trends 

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5 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

If you're south of 422 the HRRR screws you. Best snows are in the Poconos and northern NJ.

Is it normal for the SLP to move west and the precip shield to move east? That’s what I’m seeing on the HRRR. 
 

Low jumps west and precip retreats. Curious because I’m truly an idiot and want to learn. Thanks.

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