Mikeymac5306 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Do we still have the winds with this? Haven't seen much talk about the gusts since yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 whoa a MacChump sighting.... this threat may actually be legit what's next, allman15 making an appearance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 If this holds it could be a Southern Monmouth Special........ 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Winter Storm Watch issued here for accumulations of over 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, The Iceman said: whoa a MacChump sighting.... this threat may actually be legit what's next, allman15 making an appearance? lol...feel OK about this one down here... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, The Iceman said: I agree to disagree. There is still a fair amount of spread and mt holly has done that in the past and been burned. Better to start conservative and increase as we get closer. Remember watches haven't even been hoisted yet, we are still a good 60 hours out from first snow. Things can change. Plus that map is from this morning when things were even more uncertain. I bet it increases in the afternoon update. Mt holly is one of the best, I trust them. For north and west yes there is huge spread. For CNJ pretty much every model shows a foot plus. If people are expecting 4” and get over a foot that is a huge difference on impact that people need to prepare for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, Rtd208 said: Winter Storm Watch issued here for accumulations of over 7" Same for SE PA.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Do we still have the winds with this? Haven't seen much talk about the gusts since yesterday. Do you think the coast could see a blizzard warning? The watch says winds to 50mph. I imagine that might meet blizzard conditions. I haven’t been looking at the winds on the models myself but that’s something to keep an eye on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 6 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said: Do we still have the winds with this? Haven't seen much talk about the gusts since yesterday. From the WSW posted for SE PA: Winds could gust as high as 50 mph creating significant blowing and drifting of snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 yu need sustained winds of over 35 mph for an extended period for bliz warning I believe. Possible, but not likely 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Just now, hazwoper said: yu need sustained winds of over 35 mph for an extended period for bliz warning I believe. Possible, but not likely It could happen??? The National Weather Service defines a blizzard as a storm with large amounts of snow or blowing snow, winds greater than 35 mph (56 kph), and visibility of less than ¼ mile (0.4 km) for at least three hours. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 minute ago, hazwoper said: yu need sustained winds of over 35 mph for an extended period for bliz warning I believe. Possible, but not likely To declare its a blizzard you need rates of 2" per hour for at least 4 hours, I think there has to be at least 2hours of 2" per hour that are consecutive as well. To declare a warning I think it has to be in cards along with the wind requirement but i'm not positive about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: To declare its a blizzard you need rates of 2" per hour for at least 4 hours, I think there has to be at least 2hours of 2" per hour that are consecutive as well. To declare a warning I think it has to be in cards along with the wind requirement but i'm not positive about that. Check my post above you...that's from NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: To declare its a blizzard you need rates of 2" per hour for at least 4 hours, I think there has to be at least 2hours of 2" per hour that are consecutive as well. To declare a warning I think it has to be in cards along with the wind requirement but i'm not positive about that. That is "Heavy Snow warning" criteria. Blizzard is sustained winds of 35 mph for 3 hours or more with heavy snow A blizzard warning (SAME code: BZW) is an advisory issued by the National Weather Service of the United States which means sustained winds or frequent gusts of 35 mph / 15 m/s or greater with heavy snow is forecast for a period of 3 hours or more. https://www.weather.gov/phi/WinterWx#:~:text=A Winter Storm Warning is,sleet is expected to occur.&text=A Blizzard Warning is issued,for at least three hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted January 29, 2021 Author Share Posted January 29, 2021 NAM looks like it’s a tick south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcane21 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 11 minutes ago, zenmsav6810 said: To declare its a blizzard you need rates of 2" per hour for at least 4 hours, I think there has to be at least 2hours of 2" per hour that are consecutive as well. To declare a warning I think it has to be in cards along with the wind requirement but i'm not positive about that. There is No Precipitation or temperature requirement to meet Blizzard Criteria. Winds/visibility are the only two criteria 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 looking at the 18Z NAM, as I have said all day, I like where I site here in extreme SEPA EDIT with the above being said, I think the NAM made some errors here and the precip shield will push back NW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, hazwoper said: looking at the 18Z NAM, as I have said all day, I like where I site here in extreme SEPA EDIT with the above being said, I think the NAM made some errors here and the precip shield will push back NW where are you, your location says wrightstown? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 29 minutes ago, Birds~69 said: Same for SE PA.... Just wait for the nw ticks.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 5 minutes ago, MacChump said: where are you, your location says wrightstown? yep, Wrightstown, PA. Just North of Newtown. Bucks County 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 We have an awesome HWO for 5", works for me says 1-3 by Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 4 minutes ago, hazwoper said: yep, Wrightstown, PA. Just North of Newtown. Bucks County I'm sort of like extreme SE PA -where is that? Bucks is north to me, not south, but yes definitely east of me. Will see what differences we get, if any. Beautiful country up there. I'm almost in the Mid Atlantic forum-LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, Lady Di said: I'm sort of like extreme SE PA -where is that? Bucks is north to me, not south, but yes definitely east of me. Will see what differences we get, if any. Beautiful country up there. I'm almost in the Mid Atlantic forum-LOL yes, you most certainly are extreme SEPA Basically the lower portion of the 5 counties is what I consider extreme SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Birds~69 said: If you're thinking 4-6" is a good total and the duration is 36+hrs....that's like light snow/heavy flurries? Or are you thinking sleet...breaks in action etc? Breaks and light/moderate ... for now. Has room for upside. Learned from the past better to start conservative and tick up than go balls deep at 12" to start and have to keep shaving. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 3k NAM is better...much weaker/flatter with that vort.over New England around 54 I mentioned earlier....looks tucked into VA Beach. SLP depiction at 60 is actually inland. Fairly far S too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Icon is more tucked and north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Icon is more tucked and north That is very misleading S of the mason-dixon. There is ALOT of mixing this run. DC is actually mostly sleet per soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Steve D going 10-20+ for philly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 Didn't see the RGEM posted but that ticked NW too. Still snowing at end of run. Sharp cutoff tho to the left of that deform band. Someone is going to get majorly shafted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted January 29, 2021 Share Posted January 29, 2021 1 hour ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said: I have to disagree. I think this map is comically low and is supported by no model. It's straight up misleading. Especially for I-95. Solid model consensus on 10-16". The map pushing 24 hours old, I wouldn't be too hard on their first call. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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