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Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm


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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Sounds good. Euro op in its wheelhouse right now. When do you feel it is wise to start putting more weight in the op and phase out the ens for forecasting this one?

Euro is also too close for us because itd a broad low pressure. Need it to tighten up. 

Still some timing differences between the Euro and the other models. Euro has this starting mostly on Monday while others have it on Sunday.

Op runs should be used 2-3 days out

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12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Euro is also too close for us because itd a broad low pressure. Need it to tighten up. 

Still some timing differences between the Euro and the other models. Euro has this starting mostly on Monday while others have it on Sunday.

Op runs should be used 2-3 days out

EPS looked good...just took a peek. Lost the Lancaster 993mb low from 18z so tightening up in clustering near our benchmark spot off the DelMarVa.

Still curious why the subsidence zone or area with lighter total qpf amounts continue to be shown in SE PA? That has been showing up consistently for the past 36 hrs of runs. Dry slot?? Or some other atmospheric divergence thingy going on as the storm occludes?

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

6Z EPS are really nice. Deform band hangs over SE PA. Storm tucked into the benchmark. The means is slowly drifting that snow max that some guidance has over NYC down more and more to the SW closer to parts of PA now. Snowfall mean here was around 8". Suffice to say the 'general' idea this run is a 6-12"er. We take.

6-12 is a good bet for alot of people which is awesome. Whoever is in the banding will get more.

Pattern looks good after the cutter 

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1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

6-12 is a good bet for alot of people which is awesome. Whoever is in the banding will get more.

Pattern looks good after the cutter 

Yes. I think the broad range of possibilities is narrowing here in Central Bucks....anywhere from 4" up to 18" seems like the goalposts. That will narrow as we get closer. Right around a foot is the middle ground and if u blend the big models for this area, seems about right for now. I would sign on the dotted line for that. Who knows....maybe this is a rare time we can trend better?

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10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yes. I think the broad range of possibilities is narrowing here in Central Bucks....anywhere from 4" up to 18" seems like the goalposts. That will narrow as we get closer. Right around a foot is the middle ground and if u blend the big models for this area, seems about right for now. I would sign on the dotted line for that. Who knows....maybe this is a rare time we can trend better?

Miller Bs tend to slip east as we get closer. Philly usually does a little worse than my area in NYC  with these systems but I think we will all do well.  Hopefully the models start consolidating the low more.

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1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yes. I think the broad range of possibilities is narrowing here in Central Bucks....anywhere from 4" up to 18" seems like the goalposts. That will narrow as we get closer. Right around a foot is the middle ground and if u blend the big models for this area, seems about right for now. I would sign on the dotted line for that. Who knows....maybe this is a rare time we can trend better?

I hope the euro trends towards the gfs. Any more ticks north and this one is probably worse than the December storm here. Already very close with the mix line in my backyard. Verbatim the 00z euro is actually a lot like the December storm with the ccb ripping in central pa. We definitely want to see some ticks east if we don't want to get dry slotted. Today's a big day imo we ll have a much better idea whether this will be just an okay storm like December or something special.

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15 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

I hope the euro trends towards the gfs. Any more ticks north and this one is probably worse than the December storm here. Already very close with the mix line in my backyard. Verbatim the 00z euro is actually a lot like the December storm with the ccb ripping in central pa. We definitely want to see some ticks east if we don't want to get dry slotted. Today's a big day imo we ll have a much better idea whether this will be just an okay storm like December or something special.

6z eps alot better. Gotta smell the rain for the best snows. Eps is also ticking that snow max SW from NYC. Clustering over our BM spot. I think we start to see the windshield wiper effect now. Everything lining up for a SECS/MECS west of the Del River at very worst.

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1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Miller Bs tend to slip east as we get closer. Philly usually does a little worse than my area in NYC  with these systems but I think we will all do well.  Hopefully the models start consolidating the low more.

NYC is in such a good spot for Miller B storms, anything south of Bucks County - Philadelphia County Pa misses out on intensification. And there is always the dryslot. 

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Gfs doesn't just get in line, it stalls the storm right off the cape may coast. Don't believe other models are doing that. Verbatim philly up to the turnpike change over for a time but it may be over doing the low level warmth. I'd expect a change to pingers though for a time probably even up to red sky. Still great run!! Almost 48 hours straight of precip! 

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8 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Gfs doesn't just get in line, it stalls the storm right off the cape may coast. Don't believe other models are doing that. Verbatim philly up to the turnpike change over for a time but it may be over doing the low level warmth. I'd expect a change to pingers though for a time probably even up to red sky. Still great run!! Almost 48 hours straight of precip! 

My only complaint is 36hrs of snow with this track should do better than 12-18" snow. PD2 was that long a storm and when it was done I felt the storm was slow and boring.

 

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