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Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm


LVblizzard
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Just now, Redmorninglight said:

Good luck up there inland peeps. I just can’t see a way we win down here with this one. That’s why I reeling over losing tomorrow. That one felt like ours. “Southern slider” for south coastal snow weenies. Have not had an inch of snow in almost 48 months. 

That's just brutal, I would have moved by now. On the bright side at least you get some T-storms....

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11 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

The JV models (JMA and NAVGEM) are complete misses from DC to Boston. Not even a flake or drop of rain. 

It may be right too??  These models may be showing the block breaking down the flow too progressive and the storm develops too late and gets whisked out to sea.  It is plausible.  

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Hahaha I get it guys, this place sucks for snow. We average 15”/yr so this drought is pretty bad. I grew up in Morris Co but have been down here since ‘95. So basically I grew up in the snow drought years of the 80s and 90s up there and moved here where it’s worse. I love it here tho. Surfing, fishing, kayaking and hunting. It’s pretty sweet. I normally head to Vermont and Colorado every winter to snowboard but can’t due to Covid. I think 95 and N &W look good for this one. Wish I could chase up north with my family but you know. 

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5 minutes ago, hazwoper said:

I had a feeling you come in with the ICON.  Please stop with that nonsense 

It's a sloppy phase and slow transfer like the GFS, CMC, and UKMET. Its not an impossible solution considering it has some support. You do realize the euro is essentially alone and the extreme solution attm right? And most other guidance is signaling a SECS/MECS but a messy way of going around it. We don't do messy or complicated well.

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6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

It's a sloppy phase and slow transfer like the GFS, CMC, and UKMET. Its not an impossible solution considering it has some support. You do realize the euro is essentially alone and the extreme solution attm right? And most other guidance is signaling a SECS/MECS but a messy way of going around it. We don't do messy or complicated well.

The ICON is awful.  Period

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25 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

O for 1 at 0z. ICON was a disaster. Brief thump to rain to dryslot. 

This is what I said at 10 on another site:

I hate Miller B storms I have seen us get screwed many times!!! I’m still concerned about a progressive flow that doesn’t slow the storm down to develop or a combo progressive flat zonal flow it can still happen.  I think IF this were to happen we start seeing a backwards trend starting at 0z into 12z tomorrow.   The big runs start Friday IMO. 

sounds like the primary is too far north and block doesn’t hold the warming off the ocean and south welp it’s probably the likely out come now.  I never trust storms rolling off the Pacific and cruising across the country towards a block that’s lifting out.  Opens the door to the warm surge!! 

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Remember what Newman and I have been saying for days. This is typical Niña storm at play here. Keeps ticking N and eventually is a New England bomb. This is trending no different. The stall look now has moved from off VA Beach to off OC, MD, to off AC, and now the best stuff is trending to happen closer to the benchmark for New England. 

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5 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

0 for 2...GFS is brief thump to rain then dryslot SE PA. SECS. GFS has been consistent asf

90% that the Euro will follow suit. All these models vs the King no it’s not going to work out.  I’m not staying up for the Euro.  Those poor souls in the Mid Atlantic Forum are probably standing on the ledge of the bridge looking down at the Potomac!!    I mean did anyone seriously think 20”+ was going to happen. 

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Remember what Newman and I have been saying for days. This is typical Niña storm at play here. Keeps ticking N and eventually is a New England bomb. This is trending no different. The stall look now has moved from off VA Beach to off OC, MD, to off AC, and now the best stuff is trending to happen closer to the benchmark for New England. 

Until the Euro shows this, I won’t buy the GFS completely. GFS never great with thermals either. To its credit, though, the GFS has kept showing this slop.

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Remember what Newman and I have been saying for days. This is typical Niña storm at play here. Keeps ticking N and eventually is a New England bomb. This is trending no different. The stall look now has moved from off VA Beach to off OC, MD, to off AC, and now the best stuff is trending to happen closer to the benchmark for New England. 

Mid Atlantic fairs better then we do on gfs

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7 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

90% that the Euro will follow suit. All these models vs the King no it’s not going to work out.  I’m not staying up for the Euro.  Those poor souls in the Mid Atlantic Forum are probably standing on the ledge of the bridge looking down at the Potomac!!    I mean did anyone seriously think 20”+ was going to happen. 

Tom Brady is starting the drive on his own 20 to start the 4th qtr down 24-17. Never count  Brady out even when the Euro is steadfast on HECS/BECS .

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