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Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm


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3 minutes ago, RedSky said:

If it goes down like the euro it's going to be rough in the early going take xtra xanax, snows in DC for like 24hrs before it makes it up here lots of Virga, then the mix line flirts with I95 not too long after that. 

 

 

You paint a sour picture.

I'm happy with it. Can it screw up, yes. Can it get better, yes. At least we're dealing with a real storm at this point and getting closer....

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2 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Nuked. Verbatim probably some mixing issues but I can deal with it and also not much room for error. Can't hug the coast too much closer or we see a lot of mixing and rain. The clown map sure is pretty though with that foot maximum over Ralph and I's houses.

 

sn10_acc.us_ne.png

I mean, a foot is no joke but the way h5 played out would have assumed higher amts more widespread. I wonder what made 96 and 2016 such big events? Even this one looks to stall and has an excellent moisture feed 

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Too norther too fast. I didt like that large a jump but we don't control what's going to happen. Knew it was coming tho based off 6z eps.

Shhhh we gotta be positive here about all except the east crowd in the bullseye day 5 go to your happy place

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Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

I mean, a foot is no joke but the way h5 played out would have assumed higher amts more widespread. I wonder what made 96 and 2016 such big events? Even this one looks to stall and has an excellent moisture feed 

If I remember correctly, Jan 16 was like this, I don't think the models started printing out insane totals, like 20" plus, until we got inside 96 hours. I could be misremembering though. 

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5 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

It's so hard to get snow on the coast.  This storm sits for 48 hrs an we get 2" lol

After spending some stints in east Monmouth I keep having to stop myself from saying "we" bullseye knowing the perils of the east crowd. I feel your pain. 

 

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Need a more consolidated h500 signature. Also, a tighter closed upper low. Would help to eliminate this "blotchy" precip distribution we're seeing. Even with a messier look, models still show the potential for 12"+. If we can get pieces to come together crisper...

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.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

The big story in the long term remains the low pressure system
Sunday into late Monday, which could be a classic

What has changed: No major changes with this forecast update.
Guidance came in to some better agreement with the track of the
low, but even with the minor differences, could result in
significant changes as far as impacts to our region. Thus, for
the latest forecast update, stayed close to the previous
forecast and a blend of guidance.

Timing: There are still some large differences between models
with the timing of this system. Precipitation could come in as
early as Sunday afternoon, and could linger as late as Tuesday,
depending on how progressive the system is.

Precipitation type: As mentioned above, the track will be a big
factor in the ultimate impacts for our region, especially with
regards to precipitation type. The closer the low gets to our
region, the more likely we are see wintry mix across the region.
If the track is further south, as some of the operational models
are trending, it could be more snow.

Precipitation amounts: We won`t have a better idea on
precipitation amounts through this event until at least
Saturday.
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Hoping to see maybe one flake down in south Jersey with this one. If that did happene we would beat the December storm by..... you guessed  it 1 flake :) On the real I know thermals and precip are the last to get figured out but I’m at odds to what even root for to get a decent storm down here. Quicker phase? Earlier capture? Or just stronger WAA snows and accept the rain from any coastal. Regardless should be a great storm for most of the area! 

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6 minutes ago, coastal front said:

Hoping to see maybe one flake down in south Jersey with this one. If that did happene we would beat the December storm by..... you guessed  it 1 flake :) On the real I know thermals and precip are the last to get figured out but I’m at odds to what even root for to get a decent storm down here. Quicker phase? Earlier capture? Or just stronger WAA snows and accept the rain from any coastal. Regardless should be a great storm for most of the area! 

At ACY your best bet is the initial WAA probably... but there are still some transfer scenarios further south with a slightly later capture that could put you inline for some CCB snow. Note I am personally a bit skeptical of the ULL-driven post backside snows, but that could be another option (although any WAA snow would probably be rained out by that point).

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Just now, Redmorninglight said:

Good luck up there inland peeps. I just can’t see a way we win down here with this one. That’s why I reeling over losing tomorrow. That one felt like ours. “Southern slider” for south coastal snow weenies. Have not had an inch of snow in almost 48 months. 

I feel your pain man! I’d take an inch and run at this point. Still a ways out but I do think even we will see at least some flakes at the onset 

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