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Jan. 31-Feb. 2 Miller B storm


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15 minutes ago, RedSky said:

Ukie is suppressed and a disorganized mess like the CMC lol

Not a flake through 144hr

 

I would hold off on calling the ukie a miss...haven't seen precip panels but through 144 that's a decent low track. 

 

Edit: verbatim it's a "miss" but I think the coastal is gearing up to rock us if there was a 150 panel. I think that's a decent run since it's at the end of it's range.

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38 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Welcome to the board!

 

Here are the 2 free sites I use to model watch. I also have a subscription though for the euro and eps.

Tropical tidbits:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=neus&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2021012612&fh=162

 

Pivotal weather:

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ecmwf_full&p=sn10_acc&rh=2021012612&fh=6&r=conus&dpdt=&mc=

 

Feel free to ask questions whenever! I know I'm a bit down on these threats but I still enjoy tracking them :lol:

 

 

 

 

 

Thank you! I’ll bookmark them! Somehow by staying in my literature & languages niche, I never learned the underpinnings of the science of weather.  I did attempt to learn on my own but found it wasn’t easy like learning a language. I needed a teacher. I just discovered the class yesterday.  A sad example of my lack of knowledge - I knew cold air is heavier than warm air, but I only learned yesterday it’s called buoyancy:D My goal is to be able to read the  posts here and fully understand everything said. 

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1 minute ago, Furrawn said:

Thank you! I’ll bookmark them! Somehow by staying in my literature & languages niche, I never learned the underpinnings of the science of weather.  I did attempt to learn on my own but found it wasn’t easy like learning a language. I needed a teacher. I just discovered the class yesterday.  A sad example of my lack of knowledge - I knew cold air is heavier than warm air, but I only learned yesterday it’s called buoyancy:D My goal is to be able to read the  posts here and fully understand everything said. 

I'm 20 years into this hobby and still learning! If you ever have questions about any posts here, definitely feel free to ask. I'll be glad to explain the best I can. It's always good to see new "weenies" in the making :)

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Looks like we get fringed on this run through 162... coastal is definitely a bit further south. Mid atlantic is in the bullseye... What could go wrong for them 6 days out :lol: I was negative at first but honestly I like where we stand at 12z. A compromise between the euro and gfs is a great solution for us. We don't want to be in the jackpot area right now.

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Just now, The Iceman said:

Looks like we get fringed on this run through 162... coastal is definitely a bit further south. Mid atlantic is in the bullseye... What could go wrong for them 6 days out :lol: I was negative at first but honestly I like where we stand at 12z. A compromise between the euro and gfs is a great solution for us. We don't want to be in the jackpot area right now.

Same here....I would be more worried if I lived in the Mid Atlantic.

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15 minutes ago, The Iceman said:

Looks like we get fringed on this run through 162... coastal is definitely a bit further south. Mid atlantic is in the bullseye... What could go wrong for them 6 days out :lol: I was negative at first but honestly I like where we stand at 12z. A compromise between the euro and gfs is a great solution for us. We don't want to be in the jackpot area right now.

I'm willing to bet that IF guidance is correct in weakening the block and drifting it away from the NAO region,  these Southern hits will begin to shift N. This isn't like the past 2 weeks or so with the shred machine under the block. Like I said a few mins ago and as Iceman has noted, the GFS thump to rain idea is a very valid concern attm. Im less worried about a miss S than I am this tracking too far N or developing too close to the coast. I would NOT want to be in the bullseye at 6 days....period. I dont EVER recall a time (not that it hasn't happened) where a bullseye held up until storm time. Whatever happens will happen tho, I'm not losing sleep over it. I do like where we stand attm.

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3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm willing to bet that IF guidance is correct in weakening the block and drifting it away from the NAO region,  these Southern hits will begin to shift N. This isn't like the past 2 weeks or so with the shred machine under the block. Like I said a few mins ago and as Iceman has noted, the GFS thump to rain idea is a very valid concern attm. Im less worried about a miss S than I am this tracking too far N or developing too close to the coast. I would NOT want to be in the bullseye at 6 days....period. I dont EVER recall a time (not that it hasn't happened) where a bullseye held up until storm time. Whatever happens will happen tho, I'm not losing sleep over it. I do like where we stand attm.

Don't post this in the mid atlantic thread ...they've spiked the football and are doing a full team celebration in the end zone already :lol:

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