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Jan 25-26th Potential Something Part 3


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Will be curious to see what LOT does coming up.  Do they pull the trigger on an advisory for lake snow or punt for the evening shift to look at.

It seems pretty clear the band will become semi-stationary or wobble around the same corridor of Lake county IN and parts of Cook county later on.  Quite likely to see advisory criteria amounts imo.

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34 minutes ago, tuanis said:

Visibility still reduced and still accumulating, albeit much more slowly. Have about an inch and a half of fresh on the driveway since I cleared it this morning. Imagine we've seen about 7"-7.5" so far, but hard to get an accurate measurement with the blowing and drifting. Rates picking up again as I type this. It's not really a packing snow. More dense and powdery.

as mentioned by others above it looks like the LE is starting 

 

also light snow showers are now falling over SE Cook county per radar

There is chance this area could see snow , at various intensities,  the next 24 hours per Nam nest (until 21z weds) which is rather rare on the IL side of the lake

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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not very bullish on LE 1-3

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
300 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2021  
  
   
SHORT TERM  
  
259 PM CST  
  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...  
  
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL  
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND ON  
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR THESE SHOWERS,  
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE WILL SEE THESE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME  
BETTER FOCUSED INTO PORTIONS OF COOK COUNTY AND LAKE COUNTY IN   
TONIGHT AS A LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN   
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY KEEP THE MAIN  
FOCUS FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COOK   
COUNTY (AND ADJACENT AREAS OF LAKE IN) THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY   
MORNING BEFORE THIS FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO LAKE AND   
PORTER COUNTIES IN IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
  
LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OVERLY IMPRESSIVE  
FROM A THERMODYAMICS PERSPECTIVE. IN FACT, A RECENT AMDAR   
SOUNDING OUT OF MDW SUGGESTS THAT LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS  
ARE RIGHT AT THE -12C LEVEL, WHICH IS ONLY ABOUT 5-6,000 FEET   
AGL. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THIS WILL IMPROVE MUCH, IF AT ALL,   
OVERNIGHT. THIS DOES ADD SOME CONCERN TO THE QUALITY OF SNOW IN   
THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. HOWEVER, WITH A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL  
FOR A GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE  
ZONE, THIS MAY ACT TO COMPENSATE FOR THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC   
PARAMETERS. FOR THIS REASON, WHILE THIS IS UNLIKELY TO TURN INTO A  
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR COOK OR LAKE COUNTY IN, WE COULD  
SEE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPORT A BAND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE   
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COOK/PARTS OF LAKE   
IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUR CURRENT FORECAST  
MENTIONS ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST  
AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE IN SOUTHERN COOK AND FAR NORTHWESTERN IN.  
  
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS  
TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN LAKE IN AND PORTER WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO  
BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END ALTOGETHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.   
  

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This is how to handle lake effect snow forecasting:

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF CHICAGO, CICERO, OAK LAWN, OAK PARK,   
AND LA GRANGE  
314 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2021  
   
TONIGHT  
CLOUDY WITH NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW  
ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. LOWS 17 TO 21 IN THE SUBURBS...BUT IN  
THE LOWER 20S DOWNTOWN. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. NEAR THE LAKE,  
GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH IN THE EVENING. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION  
60 PERCENT.    
WEDNESDAY  
MOSTLY CLOUDY. NUMEROUS LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE  
MORNING, THEN SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW  
ACCUMULATION UP TO 1 INCH. TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION UP TO  
4 INCHES.
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 20 MPH.  
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION 60 PERCENT. 

 

Brilliant. :snowing:

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36 minutes ago, janetjanet998 said:

not very bullish on LE 1-3

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE, IL  
300 PM CST TUE JAN 26 2021  
  
   
SHORT TERM  
  
259 PM CST  
  
THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...  
  
FORECAST CHALLENGES CONTINUE TO FOCUS ON ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL  
ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND ON  
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THERE IS NOT MUCH OF A FOCUS FOR THESE SHOWERS,  
THE EXPECTATION IS THAT WE WILL SEE THESE SNOW SHOWERS BECOME  
BETTER FOCUSED INTO PORTIONS OF COOK COUNTY AND LAKE COUNTY IN   
TONIGHT AS A LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE SETS UP OVER SOUTHERN   
LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS LAND BREEZE CONVERGENCE ZONE MAY KEEP THE MAIN  
FOCUS FOR THESE SNOW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COOK   
COUNTY (AND ADJACENT AREAS OF LAKE IN) THROUGH MUCH OF WEDNESDAY   
MORNING BEFORE THIS FOCUS GRADUALLY SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO LAKE AND   
PORTER COUNTIES IN IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  
  
LAKE EFFECT PARAMETERS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO GET OVERLY IMPRESSIVE  
FROM A THERMODYAMICS PERSPECTIVE. IN FACT, A RECENT AMDAR   
SOUNDING OUT OF MDW SUGGESTS THAT LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS  
ARE RIGHT AT THE -12C LEVEL, WHICH IS ONLY ABOUT 5-6,000 FEET   
AGL. IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT THIS WILL IMPROVE MUCH, IF AT ALL,   
OVERNIGHT. THIS DOES ADD SOME CONCERN TO THE QUALITY OF SNOW IN   
THESE LAKE EFFECT BANDS. HOWEVER, WITH A FAIRLY CONSISTENT SIGNAL  
FOR A GOOD BOUNDARY LAYER FOCUS ALONG THE LAKE BREEZE CONVERGENCE  
ZONE, THIS MAY ACT TO COMPENSATE FOR THE MODEST THERMODYNAMIC   
PARAMETERS. FOR THIS REASON, WHILE THIS IS UNLIKELY TO TURN INTO A  
MAJOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW EVENT FOR COOK OR LAKE COUNTY IN, WE COULD  
SEE ENOUGH OF A FOCUS TO SUPPORT A BAND OF ACCUMULATING LAKE   
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COOK/PARTS OF LAKE   
IN LATE TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. OUR CURRENT FORECAST  
MENTIONS ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST  
AMOUNTS NEAR THE LAKE IN SOUTHERN COOK AND FAR NORTHWESTERN IN.  
  
AS MENTIONED ABOVE, EXPECT THE FOCUS FOR LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS  
TO SHIFT EASTWARD INTO EASTERN LAKE IN AND PORTER WEDNESDAY  
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO  
BE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA. OTHERWISE THESE LAKE EFFECT SNOW  
SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END ALTOGETHER WEDNESDAY NIGHT.   
  

1-3 is safe bet/low end.  I wish we had delta T closer to 20C for this... there would be major dumpage somewhere in Lake IN and perhaps Cook given the likely wobbly/slow moving nature in that corridor.

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1 hour ago, MIstorm97 said:

Finally snowing again. Hoping to get to 3” total at this point. 

Nope. Defo zone really hit the bed and managed just half an inch. Likely done with snow. Total looks to be 2.3”, so we did get more on Sunday with that little wave than the main “storm” :yikes:

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Getting some aircraft effect snow in the western burbs now....they're fast-moving given the 25-30KT northerly steering flow. It'll be interesting to see if the Gary industrial complex plays a part in locally higher snowfall south of there overnight since the two usually occur under similar conditions. 

CODNEXLAB-NEXRAD-LOT-N0Q-20210126-2215-12-100.thumb.gif.2268bcc912fb78ebe4e7e5faeb40b6e6.gif

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It was absolutely ripping as it passed over me in the UIC area about an hour ago, with well-treated main streets getting covered almost instantly. I just got home (about 5 miles NW of the Loop) and it looks like we’ve picked up almost 6” so far—definitely frustrating to have the heavier synoptic stuff stay just north earlier and now the lake effect go just south, but it is what it is!

54 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

You can see better consolidation into a banded feature on the recent scans vs the more disorganized/showery appearance earlier.

 

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1 hour ago, MIstorm97 said:

Nope. Defo zone really hit the bed and managed just half an inch. Likely done with snow. Total looks to be 2.3”, so we did get more on Sunday with that little wave than the main “storm” :yikes:

Hopefully we get our mojo back in February lol. Finished with 1.3" of snow here with 0.16" liquid. Season to date 18.5" but just 4.7" in January. The mix of freezing rain & snow made it a popsicle/slurpee kind of day. The snow piles will be frozen glaciers by morning. 

FB_IMG_1611703325730.jpg

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Well this storm overperformed here. I was originally forecasted to have 2-4" but I ended up with about 7" with quite a bit of drifting and blowing. A fluffier snow too which was nice fo shoveling. This 7" means that our snowmobile trails will be able to open which will be nice. I say I probably have 9-10" OTG now. This pack should last at least to the end of the week.

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What a dog's breakfast of a storm here.  Even King Euro mishandled the placement of the defo band snows. 

Won't know for sure until the final number's out, but with today's coating YYZ up to around 30" on the season.  2020-21 could very well be like last year: end up with 55" but damned if you can remember how.

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