Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Rgem has a tendency to overamplify things.

I think given the depth of the cold and precip the coastal front will be further east. 

Will be keeping an eye on the dry slot though.

I usually start viewing these Jersey shore webcams to see if there is any mixing changeover

Beach Webcams in New Jersey - NJ Beach Cams

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Not that consistent IMO. RGEM has been more

Craig Allen now that I remember. Decent met though, no? He was mainly talking about runs since yesterday. Beyond that, I can't say. There's no model out to lunch saying it will be a less severe event. We're going to get slammed; anytime you get over a foot and a lot of wind, and top it off with some rain, you are going to have serious travel and cleanup issues.

[kat5hurricane]

6 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Not that consistent IMO. RGEM has been more

Agreed, the Nam had a NYC/L.I. jackpot with western NJ and Eastern PA getting much less just last night so it definitely hasn't been consistent.

In any event, this is arguing over semantics. The bottom line is that every model shows a major to possibly historic snowstorm for just about all of us. Where the banding sets up with the highest totals/dry slot etc. will come down to nowcast.

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Craig Allen now that I remember. Decent met though, no? He was mainly talking about runs since yesterday. Beyond that, I can't say. There's no model out to lunch saying it will be a less severe event. We're going to get slammed; anytime you get over a foot and a lot of wind, and top it off with some rain, you are going to have serious travel and cleanup issues.

This is almost November 2018 on steroids version 

[tim]

7 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I usually start viewing these Jersey shore webcams to see if there is any mixing changeover

Beach Webcams in New Jersey - NJ Beach Cams

..I'll be the first to tell you..

[ChineseFood4Snow]

I have reports from family in Lawrenceville NJ of flurries right now.

[Juturna]

12 minutes ago, Noteaster101 said:

Little worried about Bernie Raynos forecast of mixing issues and the dreaded dry slots in New York City and Long Island keeping snow totals down to 6 to 12 inches, even though I’m in the lower Hudson Valley and in a good place, I’m worried about mixing issues here also in Rockland County, any thoughts on Raynos forecast?

I just don't see the mixing being an issue until after the heaviest amounts have moved through. I expect some freezing drizzle to glaze the snow that fell. But what do I know 

[sferic]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

Got to accumulations and change to snow, zr etc and watch your end time, Lots of flex in the menu.

 

http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/forecast-systems.php?lang=en&map=na&mod=gemglb

 

Thank you !

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Juturna said:

I just don't see the mixing being an issue until after the heaviest amounts have moved through. I expect some freezing drizzle to glaze the snow that fell. But what do I know 

I agree that’s the most likely outcome although probably drizzle not freezing drizzle as surface will be above freezing 

[The Iceman]

4 minutes ago, ChineseFood4Snow said:

I have reports from family in Lawrenceville NJ of flurries right now.

Yup, 5-10 miles north up in Hopewell NJ and flurries just started here

[Snowlover11]

definitely arriving early but thats always the case.

[TheBigBlueBox]

The 12z gfs is a thing of beauty for Philly folks.

[mikem81]

24 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Rgem would actually flip nyc and especially LI to legit rain but I think it’s overamped

I think the "flip to rain" is just a matter of where the dry slot shows up/. At that point between 1 and 1.5 QPF is already fallen and we are talking about 2-3 inches of "wasted" snow

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

definitely arriving early but thats always the case.

this initial  batch is just some flurries and snow showers

Weather Radar | Weather Underground (wunderground.com)

 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, TheBigBlueBox said:

The 12z gfs is a thing of beauty for Philly folks.

Over a foot  for many

[SnoSki14]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Over a foot  for many

Quite a bit colder too.

Not surprised as temps will likely come below forecast. The cold air will be tough to shake and low will probably end up slightly east of models.

[Northof78]

GFS is really nice for almost everyone....1.5” to 2.2” all snow for almost everyone

[Ericjcrash]

Para is juiced and getting better up here. 

 

[Jt17]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Para is juiced and getting better up here. 

 

Near perfection!

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Para is juiced and getting better up here. 

 

What is the reason for that axis of heaviest snow from PA trending northeast on the models ? 

[Jt17]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

What is the reason for that axis of heaviest snow from PA trending northeast on the models ? 

It doesn't look like it just expands NE, it looks like it expands in all directions. 

[HeadInTheClouds]

35 minutes ago, Noteaster101 said:

Little worried about Bernie Raynos forecast of mixing issues and the dreaded dry slots in New York City and Long Island keeping snow totals down to 6 to 12 inches, even though I’m in the lower Hudson Valley and in a good place, I’m worried about mixing issues here also in Rockland County, any thoughts on Raynos forecast?

It will come down fast and furious before any dry slot. Storm is moving slowly so most locations should see a foot before dry slot but it is a concern especially if Euro verifies. 

[White Gorilla]

19 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

It doesn't look like it just expands NE, it looks like it expands in all directions. 

Can you imagine if our region now becomes the Binghamton region of Dec 17 where models completely underestimated snowfall ?  One can dream... 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Para is juiced and getting better up here. 

 

Pretty good alignment between this and regular GFS. Para going the colder route, which is interesting given the Gfs is always the colder one.

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, 72bundy said:

Lloyd Lindsay Young just gave a big hellooooo to Brooklyn and expects 12 inches on the ground when all is said and done and the frosted flakes stop.flying.

and lets not forget a relative of his

Major Winter Storm to Hit Massachusetts on Monday February 1, 2021 - YouTube

[wxman]

To state the obvious (but why not) this has the potential to be one for the ages around here in central and northern NJ.  Impossible to say until all is said and done but looking at the consensus of the models, which keep getting better (for most), this could be a GOAT.  

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Pretty good alignment between this and regular GFS. Para going the colder route, which is interesting given the Gfs is always the colder one.

Pretty good agreement now between gfs and rgem on jackpot zone 

[Jt17]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

Can you imagine if our region now becomes the Binghamton region of Dec 17 where models completely underestimated snowfall ?  One can dream... 

Hey, it could happen!
 

[TriPol]

What did the 06z EURO show?

[Greg g]

Just now, Jt17 said:

Hey, it could happen!
 

Nice angels in the outfield reference