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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

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25 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

that CCB rots all the way up near Binghamton or am I reading the map wrong? Models have shifted dramatically the last 24 hours, wow.

I would laugh with misery if Binghamton to Alb jackpots like 12/17 again.  Euro and other models show different qpf distribution this time, however. 

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3 minutes ago, Blizzardo said:

Likely 12+....

it’s still early for this but since snow maps went out last night
 

NYC/western LI and up to I84 12-18

Northern NJ 18-24 

Eastern LI 6-12 

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1 minute ago, White Gorilla said:

I would laugh with misery if Binghamton to Alb jackpots like 12/17 again.  Euro and other models show different qpf distribution this time, however. 

Was supposed to get 6-12" here until go time on 12/17....ended up with about 3'. Gotta see where banding sets up.

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3 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I would laugh with misery if Binghamton to Alb jackpots like 12/17 again.  Euro and other models show different qpf distribution this time, however. 

I believe mid level low is tracking further south this time which explains why the best rates are further SE?

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10 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

When I said days ago I would rather be in NYC than SNE I did not mean it for the reason it may transpire lol...the way the system tracks trying to make the appearance of an exit and then taking the north hook or turn like 3/2013 could allow warmer air to make enrodes there faster/more west.  My initial concerns were the jackpot of snow would simply be SW of them

Out of the big cities I think Philadelphia and NYC have the best chance of staying all snow 

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35 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

This solution looks very reasonable and high probability given all the guidance.  A nice 6-12er by me and 12-20 NYC immediate metro and west. 

That Euro map was 10:1 also. It should be at least 12:1 or higher by us for a good portion of storm. 8-10 with upside to 12 is what I am thinking right now for us. 

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20 minutes ago, HeadInTheClouds said:

That Euro map was 10:1 also. It should be at least 12:1 or higher by us for a good portion of storm. 8-10 with upside to 12 is what I am thinking right now for us. 

Sounds legit 

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18 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Ok I stand corrected euro is not a rain threat but it still looks like it ticked a bit NW

Don’t stand corrected. There are eastern posters who will flip to rain. Western posters will not. It’s ok to analyze the storm for eastern areas. 

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20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

When I said days ago I would rather be in NYC than SNE I did not mean it for the reason it may transpire lol...the way the system tracks trying to make the appearance of an exit and then taking the north hook or turn like 3/2013 could allow warmer air to make enrodes there faster/more west.  My initial concerns were the jackpot of snow would simply be SW of them

This. The storm has changed markedly in the past 48 hours. Happens 

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35 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Don’t stand corrected. There are eastern posters who will flip to rain. Western posters will not. It’s ok to analyze the storm for eastern areas. 

Yes to specify  its not a rain threat for nyc metro yet. Assuming no further trending.

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7 minutes ago, Greg g said:

What you guys thinking for Rockland county up by the Tappan zee bridge???

I would feel pretty good saying 10 plus there right now

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Hi!

Will post NWS collaborated snowfall for the PA/NYS/NJ area and hopefully by that time I have an updated NWS ensemble prob of >12" of snow for 72 hours and some SREF probs. It's going to be a nice front end thump for LI. I see models continue edging north and I think they will continue to do so into the 12z/31 cycle and then it's almost here.  It definitely begins mid -late Sunday afternoon central NJ, then to NYC-MPO ~ midnight and pummels Monday, probably mostly afternoon-eve. Then the dreaded dry slot LI eastward, tho could be overcome by new IR leafs of WAA which would help change rain back to snow on LI (if my read of rain is correct there on LI???which is debatable). 

My opinion from op NAM and EC (I don't have any confirmation date yet on the NAM being replaced by the FV3 based UFS and I don't see any SCN, so I presume its' going to be later than March 2021). Anyway from the NAM and EC OP IR and 12z/30 EPS 60 knot ene inflow stagnated over the ne corner of PA, and better snow ratios there, I could be VERY WRONG but I think the 20 to maybe low chance 25" bullseye (or one of?) will be ne NE PA Poconos where best lift.  

Here's the EC op IR that tells me somewhere upslope region in the Poconos to near BGM or Catskills, will be the eventual bullseye of 20-25" powder. Drifts to 3 or 4 feet. Pummel for 12-18 hours Monday afternoon-night there,  under or the east side of the edge of the IR from this 12z/30 operational EC IR projection  This lift and favored area is supported by 60KT of ene inflow at 850 MB over southern New England and temps in the Poconos mostly 20-27F. 

I think modeling currently favors a little to the se of my projected. Use your best judgement. 

Hopefully in sequence: EC IR 18z/1, 00z/2, 06z/2; dayshift WPC D1-3 qpf with 1.5" NYC area,  example EPS inflow at 850MB. Thats lot of moisture transport in weakening 700 MB flow-slower moving once it gets in there;  also the 12z/30 EPS snowfall (includes sleet/mix as 10 to 1 so am a little cautious se side of this, and can see boosting the nw side with higher drier fluffier wind blown snow ratios). Strongest wind gusts interior 30-40 MPH late Monday afternoon-evening, while 50+MPH in the probably warning for LI (snow to periods of rain/mix?). 

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