Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably our last chance at anything. Pattern turns hostile after this. 

Oh well at least we had 1 storm this season, better than nothing.

Last chance ? Not at all especially if the MJO goes into 8 which the EPS is forecasting. 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Last chance ? Not at all especially if the MJO goes into 7 and 8.

That's a big IF. 

Most keep it in 7 which is warm for us. 1st half of Feb looks like garbage. 

Maybe it gets to 8 mid Feb but who knows at this point. If we get screwed on this event I'm gonna throw in the towel. 

We got the blocking this year but everything else has been crap. The pacific has been awful, the blocking was too far south, it's a miracle we scored anything. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Probably our last chance at anything. Pattern turns hostile after this. 

Oh well at least we had 1 storm this season, better than nothing.

That's a a pretty bold statement for a forum that encompasses an area this large. For anyone 25 miles or more north, or west of NYC I doubt that.

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

That's a a pretty bold statement for a forum that encompasses an area this large. For anyone 25 miles or more north, or west of NYC I doubt that.

It is a bold statement anyway since it's only January.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

That's a a pretty bold statement for a forum that encompasses an area this large. For anyone 25 miles or more north, or west of NYC I doubt that.

You're right. I should clarify that anyone within the immediate NYC metro could be done. 

There might be a favorable period late Feb-early March but only if the MJO gets into 8. By then you're also working against the clock. 

[Isotherm]

The macro-scale physical forcing agents are conducive. After most of January +PNA/-NAO in the means and a few missed opportunities, favorability tends to reach a point of culmination during significant mass height field vicissitudes, e.g., as evidenced by the rapidly neutralizing NAO and PNA near the end of January. Meteorology being a probabilistically driven field, it always made/makes sense to emphasize that probabilities were/are heightened for snowfalls, but a deterministic guarantee that significant snowfall will occur is often imprudent beyond short range. Nonetheless, these lengthy wait times in conducive regimes are not uncommon (e.g., December 2010 wait time until very late month, near phase change). Here, we see the canonical jet retraction to off-west coast trough adjunctively with the decaying Hudson block/departing confluence, and amplifying Rockies longitude geopotential height rises. This should certainly yield a cyclogenesis event along the East Coast. The finer mesoscale details will be disambiguated, as everyone knows, in the coming days. But an energy transfer-primary-secondary appears fairly likely, with the potential for a z500 close off if the energies phase correctly. It's a legitimate threat within a legitimate, bonafide pattern, in fact the threat with the highest potential of success so far this January (verbatim, now, Jan 31-Feb 1). This still can imply a failure; that is certainly on the table. However, the macro-scale features in their phase changing capacities will almost guarantee an intensifying low on the coast, it's merely a matter of which region receives the brunt (on the east coast).

[nycwinter]

 

25 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It is a bold statement anyway since it's only January.

after the big snowstorms of this time of year in 2011 nyc had 1.6 snow  the rest of the winter

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

 

after the big snowstorms of this time of year in 2011 nyc had 1.6 snow  the rest of the winter

I remember that winter

We were on pace to break 1996 if the pattern continued. 

[MJO812]

20 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

The macro-scale physical forcing agents are conducive. After most of January +PNA/-NAO in the means and a few missed opportunities, favorability tends to reach a point of culmination during significant mass height field vicissitudes, e.g., as evidenced by the rapidly neutralizing NAO and PNA near the end of January. Meteorology being a probabilistically driven field, it always made/makes sense to emphasize that probabilities were/are heightened for snowfalls, but a deterministic guarantee that significant snowfall will occur is often imprudent beyond short range. Nonetheless, these lengthy wait times in conducive regimes are not uncommon (e.g., December 2010 wait time until very late month, near phase change). Here, we see the canonical jet retraction to off-west coast trough adjunctively with the decaying Hudson block/departing confluence, and amplifying Rockies longitude geopotential height rises. This should certainly yield a cyclogenesis event along the East Coast. The finer mesoscale details will be disambiguated, as everyone knows, in the coming days. But an energy transfer-primary-secondary appears fairly likely, with the potential for a z500 close off if the energies phase correctly. It's a legitimate threat within a legitimate, bonafide pattern, in fact the threat with the highest potential of success so far this January (verbatim, now, Jan 31-Feb 1). This still can imply a failure; that is certainly on the table. However, the macro-scale features in their phase changing capacities will almost guarantee an intensifying low on the coast, it's merely a matter of which region receives the brunt (on the east coast).

Wow

[HeadInTheClouds]

1 hour ago, eduggs said:

Yes, but they've mostly been weak primary lows trending north, typically with dampening upper levels. Not so much strengthening coastal lows or 2ndary lows hugging the coast.  Take today - primary low into Lake Ontario with a weak 2ndary 100s of miles offshore. Something very similar could play out with the next threat.

The early consensus from the models from those systems 6 days out was suppression also only to come farther north with time. The 16-17th storm was a developing secondary that models had coming north to southern Jersey and then shunted east. It came further north and hugged the coast and we know what the result was. I'm not saying that will happen this time, just that there is a long way to go for this one. 

[MJO812]

Icon

 

Very long duration  storm 

[romba]

GFS

 

Canadian

[MJO812]

Ukie 

[romba]

To my untrained eye the new CMC seems more strung out with less energy consolidation. NC gets some snow instead of it staying up around the NYC area.

 

0z

 

12z

[White Gorilla]

Many model cycles to go, but at least something to track for now.  

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

The 12Z GFS for The February 1 storm. This is only totals from that event.

Fun to dream.

[MJO812]

[MJO812]

Further south on the euro but close to monitor 

[NEG NAO]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Further south on the euro but close to monitor 

But fighting the block to try and move north

[MJO812]

Nice evolution

Stalling and slow moving

[NEG NAO]

Snow storm, December 19-20, 2009 - Storm Summary (raymondcmartinjr.com)

That storm also was a slow mover up the coast

and the EURO is stalled out and retrograding

[MJO812]

If this had a cleaner phase this would have been a monster storm with the stall and slow mover.

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

If this had a cleaner phase this would have been a monster storm with the stall and slow mover.

Still a work in progress - all options still on the table IMO

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If this had a cleaner phase this would have been a monster storm with the stall and slow mover.

40 inches in VA...LOL.   

[SnoSki14]

Isotherm's analysis was def reassuring. This is by far the best chance of snow since December. 

I wouldn't sweat on the details just yet.

[HVSnowLover]

Going to be too long of a week of model watching, I wish this thread wasn't opened yet lol (but totally understand why it was).   

[Snowlover11]

some long nights ahead, grab the monsters and red bull!  alcohol works too.

[SleetStormNJ]

Very bullish on this threat.  Lots of ingredients are there.  Feel confident in at least some kind of storm and significant weather impact.  Still time to go and of course the swings people feel with modelology, but the ULL/bowling ball look is promising.

[SnowGoose69]

One thing is for sure.  I would rather be here than Boston and it’s rare I’ll say that 5 days out of a Miller B type setup.  The fact everything this year has gone south from this range and the GFS has been too far north at this range probably means the end solution as far as northern/western extent would be at best the current middle ground of the GFS/Euro 

[HVSnowLover]

19 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

One thing is for sure.  I would rather be here than Boston and it’s rare I’ll say that 5 days out of a Miller B type setup.  The fact everything this year has gone south from this range and the GFS has been too far north at this range probably means the end solution as far as northern/western extent would be at best the current middle ground of the GFS/Euro 

Agree with a storm this massive I’m more worried about suppression than warm. Even if it did mix the coast you’re still doing way better than being too far north and missing out on the monster