Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[MANDA]

 

As of 7am:

Liquid total for the event = 2.25".

Snow total for the event = 26.5"

Ratio works out to be = Just shy of 12:1 on average.

[wdrag]

Looking back:  This was on the thread at least back to the 25th,  (not as a top 10 snowstorm).  EPS was initially steadfast for 4 days, then around Thursday, all the models for some reason dropped the primary threat axis considerably far south, so much so that I was wondering if this would be a prolific advance EPS bust. Thereafter, modeling started edging north, I think around Friday.  The results are attached.  (personally i was way to conservative NYC eastward and the snow was dry enough with enough wind going to prevent a massive wet snow related power outage situation) .   Moderate coastal flooding occurred for two successive high tide cycles Monday 2/1 and minor on Tuesday 2/2. 

 

Kuchera snowfall on the EC and GFSV16 (para) was helpful in focusing the potential for up to 30" amounts. The EPS was conservative when compared to Kuchera. 

 

[etudiant]

Now that this is in the books, did JB's expectation of 40"+ in the Poconos verify?

I've always respected his meteorological chops and he did get it right that this would be a big one, but he does get very enthusiastic when in the chase.

[Snowshack]

moderate snow shower, 34f.  Ground rewhitened in Miller Place. 

[jm1220]

On 1/31/2021 at 2:00 PM, jm1220 said:

Revised thoughts:

Central Park: 18" Actual: 17.2" unless any additional is measured from snow showers

JFK: 16" Actual: 12.6", other measurements nearby were higher and they've been conservative in the past

Newark: 20" Actual 17.7"

Middletown, NY: 20" Actual 20.4" but some more may have fallen today since report was at 930am? 

Morristown/Sussex, NJ: 22" Actual: Up to 35" possibly but well over 2 feet generally

Danbury: 20" Actual: 19"

Bridgeport: 18" Actual: 15.8"

White Plains: 21" Actual: Saw a 14" and 22" report so maybe I call it down the middle and say 18"? 

Asbury Park: 12" Actual: I saw a 5" and 6.5" report nearby so I obviously busted way too high there. Easterly flow FTL which ended up cooking the E MA coast too

Freehold: 18" Actual: Saw an 8.5 and 12.5" report. I'll call it down the middle and say 10.5". Again I busted way high here

Montauk: 8" Actual: Closest report was E Hampton with 7.2" so maybe not far off? I'll estimate 6" there

Riverhead: 12" Actual: 13" 

Long Beach: 14" Actual: No report too close by but generally 12-14" reports from Freeport, Malverne, JFK. My parents say it was an absolute mess in LB so I'd say they were in that range

Islip: 16" Actual: 11.5" I think that may be a little low but is what it is

Me/PSV88/NorthshoreWX: 17" Actual: PSV88 with 15" in Commack, NorthShoreWX probably with over 15" in Smithtown given 14.9 this AM and more snow today, my backyard tough to say due to blowing/drifting but I'll go with 14" which may be conservative due to 16.2" reported in Syosset 2 towns away and nearest reports were all 15"+. Just doesn't seem in my backyard it was more than this but who knows. The max depth I was able to measure was about 12" late yesterday afternoon though some more fell after and snow could have settled a little.

Best chance for 24"+ between I-80 and I-78 in NJ. Maybe north of I-80 also in the good ratios. Mixing does eventually happen for most near the coast but 95% of the precip will have fallen by then other than the twin forks where it really might cut into totals. Actual: Should have added west of I-287 in there for max totals? I also never would've thought 35" but I knew some places would go over 24". Also I suspected the max totals could extend north of I-80 which ended up happening in Sussex/Passaic. Everyone east of the city did mix but as suspected it was in the light precip and dryslot. 

 

Verification. Not too bad generally but Monmouth County worst bust it looks like-warmth and maybe not as much precip. In general I was a little too high for most except in the max zone in N NJ. Dryslot ended the really heavy snow a little earlier than I would've thought, bad 700mb low position for east of the city but insane front end made up for it.

[RU848789]

On 1/28/2021 at 2:56 PM, wdrag said:

WPC keeps stats as does NHC, in season...  I don't know the answer.  Think the general consensus is EC/EPS best and tends to be conservative on qpf.

GFS clearly a more convective model than the EC and a high bias on qpf, tho suspect if it flags big... need to take an extra look. Sometimes it's fantastic...many others... secondary to other models.

GGEM- I like it. Many do not. I do know this winter tells the truth on all these threads. IF the GGEM doesn't have it big, forget it! Time after time. Folks can look back.  Doesn't mean that the GGEM is more accurate areally & placement but does mean it garners, at least my respect. 

Models evolve and so results may not be valid 2 years from now.  If models were static as back in the 60s/70s... then your proposal would be more useful. There may be others that can provide more info... i do agree, 500MB does not do it for me.  I don;'t get a chance to view many WPC qpf/extended discussions but they may tuck some info in there.  Was good that someone posted the EFP discussion from WPC earlier this morning. Thank you. 

Thanks for the intel and insight.  Really good point about the models not being static, as they're upgraded fairly frequently (although some of the updates are minor from what I've read), so it probably gets difficult to get a large enough sample size of east coast snowstorms before the next change is made.  But if WPC keeps stats, it would be cool to see them.  

[NorthShoreWx]

39 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Verification. Not too bad generally but Monmouth County worst bust it looks like-warmth and maybe not as much precip. In general I was a little too high for most except in the max zone in N NJ. Dryslot ended the really heavy snow a little earlier than I would've thought, bad 700mb low position for east of the city but insane front end made up for it.

0.9" more this evening, so 15.8" since the storm began Sunday night.

[psv88]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Verification. Not too bad generally but Monmouth County worst bust it looks like-warmth and maybe not as much precip. In general I was a little too high for most except in the max zone in N NJ. Dryslot ended the really heavy snow a little earlier than I would've thought, bad 700mb low position for east of the city but insane front end made up for it.

Pretty good for sure. ISP was way low, Upton up north had 14", don't see why in this setup there would be such a big difference. Ended with around 16" also, due to the additional snow tonight, and my pre storm guess was 16", so it was exactly what i expected. Not bad at all

[doncat]

Some light snow here at midnight, so 4th straight calender day for this storm... 17.5" was total here.

[psv88]

And just like that, ripping snow again, band blew up from nowhere...

[BxSnowWx37]

Day 4 and its snowing once again here in the bronx. It seems the low is starting to consolidate and throw moisture back in to our area. The ccb band is taking shape right over us..

[Nibor]

Light snow in Astoria

[BxSnowWx37]

5 minutes ago, Nibor said:

Light snow in Astoria

I actually think this stuff enhances as the night progresses. The wraparound is already collapsing this way combined with the low still offshore throwing moisture back,basically a squeeze zone with some lift still around might give us a inch or 2.

[NorthShoreWx]

43 minutes ago, psv88 said:

And just like that, ripping snow again, band blew up from nowhere...

Snow showers in the area seem to be expanding coverage and consolidating.  Could get interesting for the overnight if this continues, but sometimes they fizzle just as fast as they flared.

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Snow showers in the area seem to be expanding coverage and consolidating.  Could get interesting for the overnight if this continues, but sometimes they fizzle just as fast as they flared.

it was nice for awhile, added another inch with roads covered again

[LibertyBell]

On 2/1/2021 at 9:07 PM, Rjay said:

I lived it too.  It's not #1 for me.  It was an amazing storm though.  Jan 2016 beat it in my (old) location. 

Jan 2016 was amazing for the wide west to east coverage of 30" that will never happen again in our lifetimes (maybe lol)

[wdrag]

7 hours ago, RU848789 said:

Thanks for the intel and insight.  Really good point about the models not being static, as they're upgraded fairly frequently (although some of the updates are minor from what I've read), so it probably gets difficult to get a large enough sample size of east coast snowstorms before the next change is made.  But if WPC keeps stats, it would be cool to see them.  

They might allude too these in their heavy snow discussions...  I just don't read those - no time.  Yes, it would be cool to see those stats. If they have them, they might be fluid (sorry, didn't mean it that way, maybe should have said,   snoid). In other words as sample sizes grow the stats change. 

[LibertyBell]

Still snowing here!

 

[jm1220]

About 0.9-1” total with the snow from yesterday and overnight here. Still light snow wow 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

About 0.9-1” total with the snow from yesterday and overnight here. Still light snow wow 

Yup another inch overnight. 17” storm total 

[Rjay]

On 1/25/2021 at 7:59 PM, MJO812 said:

Para gfs

 

On 1/25/2021 at 11:15 PM, NEG NAO said:

0Z GFS

 

On 1/25/2021 at 11:22 PM, NEG NAO said:

12Z GFS Continued

 

On 1/25/2021 at 11:36 PM, NEG NAO said:

0Z Canadian

 

On 1/25/2021 at 11:45 PM, NEG NAO said:

0Z Canadian Continued

 

On 1/25/2021 at 11:48 PM, MJO812 said:

Total on cmc

 

On 1/25/2021 at 11:58 PM, MJO812 said:

Ukie

 

On 1/26/2021 at 1:56 AM, RU848789 said:

Well, somebody had to do it.  Nice eye candy 6-8 days out (although this includes what falls tomorrow, so there's not actually that much N of 84 for this; it's also a 36+ hr event as per the model, which sounds fishy).  We can dream though.  Nice to also see the GFS/CMC with significant storms, even if the evolution/placement of precip is different.  And the UK is showing the start of the storm, too at 144.  I sense a lack of sleep coming soon.  

 

 

 

I'm a big fan of going back and reading old threads.  This is the first page of the thread from the big storm Feb 1st.   I can't see a single image except one that Forky posted.  Ridiculous.  

[crossbowftw3]

13 minutes ago, Rjay said:

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I'm a big fan of going back and reading old threads.  This is the first page of the thread from the big storm Feb 1st.   I can't see a single image except one that Forky posted.  Ridiculous.  

Considering this was buy and large the storm of the season (and biggest accumulations for NYC since ~2016/those of us N&W folks since Pi Day) for most of this forum that’s kind of a disgrace 

[donsutherland1]

5 hours ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Considering this was buy and large the storm of the season (and biggest accumulations for NYC since ~2016/those of us N&W folks since Pi Day) for most of this forum that’s kind of a disgrace 

I believe the issue lies with the sites from which the images were linked. They don’t archive their maps and old maps are removed after some period of time.

[wdrag]

On 4/17/2021 at 5:06 PM, crossbowftw3 said:

Considering this was buy and large the storm of the season (and biggest accumulations for NYC since ~2016/those of us N&W folks since Pi Day) for most of this forum that’s kind of a disgrace 

I wish we had room to store images for a year... I also think it valuable to go back and see the images and check threads.  However, in order for me to post further images, I need to ensure I am capable and haven't run out of storage.  Maybe we need to donate to AMWX to increase the image archive?  

Best I can do,  Walt 

[forkyfork]

On 1/26/2021 at 9:22 AM, SnoSki14 said:

Probably our last chance at anything. Pattern turns hostile after this. 

Oh well at least we had 1 storm this season, better than nothing.

lol

[MJO812]

Beautiful long duration storm 

[MJO812]

On 1/29/2021 at 12:40 PM, Mitchel Volk said:

Very odd 500 MB not a typical big storm set-up.  You want to see tighter pack hight lines and negative tilt.  We can still see some snow on the I-95 but with the southern weaker trend at 500 MB the chances for heavy snow odds in jeopardy.  It is still way to early to project totals and sometimes the models do bring back the big storms like the Boxing Day storm.

And it did

I miss this storm

Rant over