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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


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6 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

That’s from 7 am today through 7 am Wednesday, not including what has already fallen.

Storm totalimage.thumb.png.32b28cd7e2e79d97c56b05fca2fb4937.png

image.thumb.png.496347af10d2da9d23c525146f7d1055.pngimage.thumb.png.32b28cd7e2e79d97c56b05fca2fb4937.png

 

2 minutes ago, Jeff Grann said:

That is from 7am forward. Doesn't count what fell up to 7am

Thanks 

I deleted the original post 

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7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Rgem doesn't stop snowing until tomorrow night

Hrrr is an outlier along with the 3k Nam as of now.

Euro has 20 inches now for NYC 

We'll know in 2-3hrs.

If the Nam/Euro are correct then there should be an explosion of precip that encompasses most of NJ & NYC. 

If that doesn't happen then the HRRR/3K Nam will be correct.

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Good morning American Weather! Welcome to February! Dangerous storm today. Safety first.  DPW's and first responders need priority. Recovery begins tomorrow. Difficult for me to understand why no bans on travel today (10A-10P)in NNJ/ne PA.  

Sleet up to Allentown early today and so when precip lighter this morning, sleet could mix in to LI/NYC but you should be good for several hours of 1/4S+BS and 1"/hour snowfall rates as the temps rise into the 30s...already above freezing parts of e LI. Not ideal lift in the dendrite zone for LI but good enough. No matter, take what you can get there. Tonight I see little way that is snows on LI as max lift has shifted nw of I95 and the deep ice nuclei seeding from CI is gone (dry slot) with the only hope that salt nuclei might be able to keep a little snow going there. I won't predict NYC since you started with 2" at midnight and have no idea what's on the ground there now. My guess at 5am might be near 5"?  Total  12", maybe 18? I dunno.  

I've attached the WPC probs for 8+ and 18+ after 12z today.  It's guidance and may be subject to error but I think it's correct on the bullseyes of what I think will end up pockets of 30" snow nw NJ/nse PA/se NYS.  I expect 15-20 more inches between 6A and 10PM NNJ (especially Sussex/Passiac/Morris counties),  ne PA near KMPO and interior se NYS with another half foot 10P tonight-sunrise Wednesday. Drifts to at least 4 feet ridges. Totals: near 30" expected in parts of NNJ/ne PA and se NYS by sunrise Wednesday. 

Damaging wind and I think big power outages this afternoon-evening from combined wet snow load of 6"snow on trees/wires and gusts probably 55-70 MPH on LI (even NYC though I think the 70MPH is reserved for ISP east.) and 40-55 MPH elsewhere in our forum just n and w of NYC.  

Coastal flooding: looks like 3-4 successive high tide cycles beginning late this morning-midday with the first minor or moderate, the midnightish tonight high tide moderate to major ; and then followed by two minors tomorrows high tide cycles. 

Graphics:

1) NWS 09z/1 ensemble prob 8+ after 7A

2) NWS 09z/1 ensemble prob 18+ after 7A

3) NWS 09z/1 collaborated STORM total snowfall which goes into their products. 

4) NWS 09z/1 Winter Storm Severity Index (WSSI) which does not account for coastal flooding contribution.

 

Screen Shot 2021-02-01 at 5.00.09 AM.png

Screen_Shot_2021-02-01_at_5_00.39_AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-01 at 5.49.19 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-02-01 at 4.43.04 AM.png

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3 minutes ago, dburdnj said:

Weenie question, that’s dry slotting essentially right? Is the worst of it still supposed to come this morning into midday?

No he means we got 5+ inches area wide that wasn't even picked up by the models. 

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