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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


wdrag
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14 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

not at all, storm is just starting, the further north the longer it will take.  just started snowing here in lower westchester.

 

13 minutes ago, Torch said:

By 10 pm it will be snowing accordingly to the forecast issued 6.pm

Thank you for the info. I’ve been glued to my phone watching this site dissect this storm since Friday and I couldn’t remember if it was supposed to start tonight or earlier this afternoon. 

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Plan on broadcasting from Freehold tomorrow through early afternoon, may adjust north west to englishtown/monroe if needed.  Especially concerned About the 11 pm high tide by Manasquan to Sea Bright for moderate to potentially major flooding.  Also somewhat concerned about dryslotting for some sections especially Philly areas.  Radar trends will be key.  Banding and subsidence will be prominent.   Hope for the best.  Prepare for the low end and be grateful for you in the high end totals.  

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58 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi!  Been off line most of the day and back in full early tomorrow. Not much for me to argue... I've no changes to my earlier thinking. In the end it will do what it wants and hopefully I learn from this.  

 

I add two NWS ensemble probability graphics from late today which i think are telling.  Note the gradient near NYC on prob >8"  so Yes, an easy foot expected in my eyes,  but ensembles say don't go all in...  since it's on the gradient...30 miles may make a difference between 8 and 20"? 

Still the jackpot of 25-30" if it occurs, which i think it will, probably somewhere n of I78 in ne PA, northern NJ and se NYS-Catskills region. 

No changes on my concerns about wet snow damage near I95, and coastal flooding,  wind gusts 45-55 MPH tomorrow afternoon-eve I95  corridor to the coasts. 

Have a good night.

 

Screen_Shot_2021-01-31_at_6_50.13_PM.png

Screen_Shot_2021-01-31_at_6_50.33_PM.png

Hoping what Walt said about that 25-30 inch Jackpot in NE PA and Catskills ! @snywx @Ericjcrash @crossbowftw3

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7 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

The whole rain snow line is still a mystery 

based on the NWS current totals graphics it looks like they expect the rain snow line to get to the middle of Suffolk and southeast CT 

It'll get further than that but the precip will largely be gone by then. Thus we still get high totals. 

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8 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

What time do you estimate this to occur?

So not that big of an impact on snow totals?

The damage will have already been done.   Expect at least 12" by you and likely more.   We will likely dry slot/drizzle for a while before turning back over to light snow. 

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