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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


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54 minutes ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Agree to the criteria that’s defined below. They could be thinking that the sustainable winds won’t occur for another 24 hours.

Blizzard Warning

A Blizzard Warning means that the following conditions are occurring or expected within the next 12 to 18 hours.
1) Snow and/or blowing snow reducing visibility to 1/4 mile or less for 3 hours or longer
AND
2)  Sustained winds of 35 mph or greater or frequent gusts to 35 mph or greater.
There is no temperature requirement that must be met to achieve blizzard conditions.

Upton explaining why they didn't issue blizzard warnings:

For coastal areas, winds 20-40 mph with gusts 40-60 mph will help create near-blizzard to
blizzard conditions from roughly mid-morning into the
afternoon, possibly even into the evening. Working against this
however is that an elevated warm nose then likely pushes into
much of Long Island and SE CT, possibly even into the city as
well. This then introduces mixed precipitation for these
locations, with even a complete changeover to rain across the
Twin Forks and potentially even coastal SE CT with the help of
boundary layer temperatures and the warming aloft. Do not have
enough confidence of 3 hours of blizzard conditions to go with a
blizzard warning - whether it be due to uncertainty of PCPN
type or winds being consistently strong enough while it`s
snowing. There is still a potential that some areas get
converted to a blizzard warning if confidence increases. The
strongest frontogenesis is likely to the north of these areas in
the evening, so dynamic cooling won`t be much of a factor for
much of the forecast area at this point.

The city, especially LGA, probably has the best chance for blizzard conditions, being less likely to mix while still being close enough to the coast for the winds.

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19 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

That said it's the most amped of the models with it and other models like the NAM have the mid level features a bit to the east. However a fast dry slot is always a threat when the 700 low goes west of you. 

This isn’t a Suffolk special, this setup favors NJ. We will get over a foot for sure, especially your area. 

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Hi!  Been off line most of the day and back in full early tomorrow. Not much for me to argue... I've no changes to my earlier thinking. In the end it will do what it wants and hopefully I learn from this.  

 

I add two NWS ensemble probability graphics from late today which i think are telling.  Note the gradient near NYC on prob >8"  so Yes, an easy foot expected in my eyes,  but ensembles say don't go all in...  since it's on the gradient...30 miles may make a difference between 8 and 20"? 

Still the jackpot of 25-30" if it occurs, which i think it will, probably somewhere n of I78 in ne PA, northern NJ and se NYS-Catskills region. 

No changes on my concerns about wet snow damage near I95, and coastal flooding,  wind gusts 45-55 MPH tomorrow afternoon-eve I95  corridor to the coasts. 

Have a good night.

 

Screen_Shot_2021-01-31_at_6_50.13_PM.png

Screen_Shot_2021-01-31_at_6_50.33_PM.png

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5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yup, we should do very well. Not the jackpot but best event since possibly 3/21/18. I'd say 80-90% chance we at least get into double digits. 

100% chance we get into double digits. Model consensus for our area hasn’t wavered in days. It’s been a pretty boring lead up honestly, models always showed us in the game for 12”+. 
 

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4 minutes ago, dburdnj said:

I am in Stony Point NY, trying to figure out if work being called off was right. It hasn’t done anything here so far. Does that mean less total? We’re under 18-24 watch. 

not at all, storm is just starting, the further north the longer it will take.  just started snowing here in lower westchester.

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Just now, jm1220 said:

We probably mix over at some point but it would be as the heavy precip is leaving/gone anyway. It could just be a long period of drizzle. 

By the time most of the island mixes, we will have either cashed in or busted anyway. Anything at that point woulda been relatively marginal anyways.

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