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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


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3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep it was a little better. :snowman: 

If the 700 low can track east just a little more it would be ideal for everyone but regardless I'll take the 15" it gives me before any changeover that would likely just be drizzle anyway in the dryslot. 

If that H7 stays just South and East, the entire region is BURIED.

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13 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Here's what I mean-it would be best if that 700 low was a bit further east, like offshore NJ. It's really being nitpicky at this point but this is why the heaviest amounts are over N NJ/E PA. Like I said if it happens this way I'll definitely sign on that dotted line. 

700hv.us_ne (2).png

I'm right under the dark purple and blues...do you want to be directly under it or just to the northwest of it for the best stuff?

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15 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Here's what I mean-it would be best if that 700 low was a bit further east, like offshore NJ. It's really being nitpicky at this point but this is why the heaviest amounts are over N NJ/E PA. Like I said if it happens this way I'll definitely sign on that dotted line. 

700hv.us_ne (2).png

They always tick East like I said last night. @weatherpruf enjoy the 15-20 

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Just now, Poker2015 said:

I'm right under the dark purple and blues...do you want to be directly under it or just to the northwest of it for the best stuff?

Where you see the blues would be where the best lifting is so you'd want to be just NW of it I'd think. But before this there's an insane front end batch of heavy snow anyway which means that the overall difference may be just a few inches or so between NYC and west of town, and by this point on the map the low is starting to occlude which means the snow will become more spotty/banded. 

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Revised thoughts:

Central Park: 18"

JFK: 16"

Newark: 20"

Middletown, NY: 20"

Morristown/Sussex, NJ: 22"

Danbury: 20"

Bridgeport: 18"

White Plains: 21"

Asbury Park: 12"

Freehold: 18"

Montauk: 8"

Riverhead: 12"

Long Beach: 14"

Islip: 16"

Me/PSV88/NorthshoreWX: 17"

Best chance for 24"+ between I-80 and I-78 in NJ. Maybe north of I-80 also in the good ratios. Mixing does eventually happen for most near the coast but 95% of the precip will have fallen by then other than the twin forks where it really might cut into totals. 

 

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4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Revised thoughts:

Central Park: 18"

JFK: 16"

Newark: 20"

Middletown, NY: 20"

Morristown/Sussex, NJ: 22"

Danbury: 20"

Bridgeport: 18"

White Plains: 21"

Asbury Park: 12"

Freehold: 18"

Montauk: 8"

Riverhead: 12"

Long Beach: 14"

Islip: 16"

Me/PSV88/NorthshoreWX: 17"

Best chance for 24"+ between I-80 and I-78 in NJ. Maybe north of I-80 also in the good ratios. Mixing does eventually happen for most near the coast but 95% of the precip will have fallen by then other than the twin forks where it really might cut into totals. 

 

I'm predicting 24 at your place, just for the shoe eating.

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A major winter-storm is evolving across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, as signaled by the macro-scale proxies which suggest that a meteorological show will be displayed over the coming 12-36 hours. The appearance of this storm as much as two weeks ago was foreshadowed by the multi-standard deviation height field alterations over key domain spaces (specifically the PNA/NAO vicissitudes). As a result, this will likely be the largest, widespread winter storm since March 2018.

Estimated snowfall for various locations:

Atlantic City, NJ: < 2"

Point Pleasant, NJ: 5-10"

Trenton, NJ: 14-18"

Freehold: 14-18" - locally higher

New Brunswick: 14-18" - locally higher

New York City, NY: 14-18" - locally higher

Newark, NJ: 14-18" - locally higher

Philadelphia, PA: 6-12"

Sussex, NJ: 8-15"

"Jackpot" totals will occur via the juxtaposition of initial overrunning, maintenance of frozen p-type during the energy transfer, and the secondary redevelopment induced enhancement. This region will be approximately 1.5 degrees latitude north of the z850 low path, and N/W of the z700 low path -- NYC on the northeastern side, Morristown on the northern side, southwestward to near the Delaware River, then extending southeastward to Freehold on the southeastern side. I expect that there will likely be some 18"+ reports within the delineated zone.

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Just now, Isotherm said:

A major winter-storm is evolving across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, as signaled by the macro-scale proxies which suggest that a meteorological show will be displayed over the coming 12-36 hours. The appearance of this storm as much as two weeks ago was foreshadowed by the multi-standard deviation height field alterations over key domain spaces (specifically the PNA/NAO vicissitudes). As a result, this will likely be the largest, widespread winter storm since March 2018.

Estimated snowfall for various locations:

Atlantic City, NJ: < 2"

Point Pleasant, NJ: 5-10"

Trenton, NJ: 14-18"

Freehold: 14-18" - locally higher

New Brunswick: 14-18" - locally higher

New York City, NY: 14-18" - locally higher

Newark, NJ: 14-18" - locally higher

Philadelphia, PA: 6-12"

Sussex, NJ: 8-15"

"Jackpot" totals will occur via the juxtaposition of initial overrunning, maintenance of frozen p-type during the energy transfer, and the secondary redevelopment induced enhancement. This region will be approximately 1.5 degrees latitude north of the z850 low path, and N/W of the z700 low path -- NYC on the northeastern side, Morristown on the northern side, southwestward to near the Delaware River, then extending southeastward to Freehold on the southeastern side. I expect that there will likely be some 18"+ reports within the delineated zone.

:thumbsup: 

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26 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Euro looks similar to past runs. Maybe a touch colder but still has NYC up to 36 so imagine LI would be even warmer. Not complaining at all just stating facts that the model still shows warmth 

12z EURO brought down Sullivan County by a few inches

@Ericjcrash @crossbowftw3 @snywx how do you see Delaware, Orange and Sullivan Counties?

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