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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


wdrag
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21 minutes ago, wxman said:

To state the obvious (but why not) this has the potential to be one for the ages around here in central and northern NJ.  Impossible to say until all is said and done but looking at the consensus of the models, which keep getting better (for most), this could be a GOAT.  

Models keep increasing snow amounts even way up here in POU as well, in the 20 plus range now 

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Putting aside the snow maps for a moment.  All guidance has been consistent last 3-4 runs at least with very robust QPF.

Even allowing for it being a bit overdone where max qpf can sync up with best ratios and remain all snow that alone suggests some

spots see in excess of 20".    Final "jackpot totals" will depend on where banding sits and pivots.  Keep in mind...what goes up must come down

so you want to be in the band because the subsidence on either side will keep your totals lower.

Some favored spot can see 24-30" and I would not be surprised.  Best chance I think is north of 78 and west of 287.

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12 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Models keep increasing snow amounts even way up here in POU as well, in the 20 plus range now 

I'm supposed to work there in Hopewell Jct tomorrow and Tuesday...  definitely not going in tomorrow with a 42 mile commute from Rockland County.  Tuesday may be questionable too....   The chip making tools can wait!  :)

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19 minutes ago, DaveTinNY said:

I'm supposed to work there in Hopewell Jct tomorrow and Tuesday...  definitely not going in tomorrow with a 42 mile commute from Rockland County.  Tuesday may be questionable too....   The chip making tools can wait!  :)

Definitely don't travel.  It will be dangerous to be on the roads 

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18 minutes ago, wxman said:

To state the obvious (but why not) this has the potential to be one for the ages around here in central and northern NJ.  Impossible to say until all is said and done but looking at the consensus of the models, which keep getting better (for most), this could be a GOAT.  

Sounds sexy but what's GOAT?

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For NYC, this is what the NAM 3k showed. Even if the amounts aren't correct, it should give an idea for tracking progress. The bulk of the snow is between midnight tonight and 7 PM Monday. The snow falling after that is light.

Sun 7pm: .4"
Sun 10pm: 2.0"
Mon 1am: 3.8"
Mon 4am: 5.4"
Mon 7am: 7.1"
Mon 10am: 9.7"
Mon 1pm: 14.5"
Mon 4pm: 17"
Mon 7pm: 18.6"
Mon 10pm: 19.6"
Tue 1am: 20.2"
Tue 4am: 20.7"
Tue 7am: 20.9"
Tue 10am: 21.2"

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Just now, alexj7 said:

For NYC, this is what the NAM 3k showed. Even if the amounts aren't correct, it should give an idea for tracking progress. The bulk of the snow is between midnight tonight and 7 PM Monday. The snow falling after that is light.

Sun 7pm: .4"
Sun 10pm: 2.0"
Mon 1am: 3.8"
Mon 4am: 5.4"
Mon 7am: 7.1"
Mon 10am: 9.7"
Mon 1pm: 14.5"
Mon 4pm: 17"
Mon 7pm: 18.6"
Mon 10pm: 19.6"
Tue 1am: 20.2"
Tue 4am: 20.7"
Tue 7am: 20.9"
Tue 10am: 21.2"

Great illustration. Any model that has mid-levels going above 0 C happens after 7pm Monday so we are talking about 2-3 inches of wasted precip at most in NYC/LI (eastern LI obviously might be diffferent)

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15 minutes ago, mikem81 said:

Bottom line so far. Looks like heavist precip axis will be from NYC west but blizzard conditions and wind in the NYC and western LI area will make the snow hard to measure anyway so we can all just measure the drifts and get the same amounts.

Amped is winning out as expected but hopefully we can get a small shift east before start. NYC and LI will probably be warm enough for rain for a time but it will be when the heavy precip is over anyway, so most end up getting about the same amounts, but the highest would be NW where you also get the better ratios. 

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