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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

wdrag

By wdrag,
in New York City Metro

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
36 minutes ago, wdrag said:
Good Sunday morning everyone, Jan 31. Major near blizzard Nor'easter coming. I would not plan on driving anywhere on Monday in northern NJ, ne PA, se NYS and ditto CT Monday afternoon-night, MA Monday night.
 
NYC my guess is a foot, possibly more before mixed Monday night.
 
Otherwise,  amounts between 1-2 feet from I78 northward with lesser 8-18 inches CT and MA where rain/sleet invades later Monday night.
 
Isolated 30" possible nw NJ, or ne PA into the Catskills by the time this storm ends early Wednesday.. Drifts 3-4 feet. Power outages possible Monday afternoon and night from northern NJ northeastward to CT and Boston from a combination of heavy wetter (heart attack for the hear tcondition vulnerable) snow and northeast wind gusts of 40-55 MPH.
 
Snow starts central NJ around 3 PM, northern NJ-ne PA 6-10P, CT around dawn Monday. Worst of the storm NJ/PA sunrise Monday-midnight Monday night, CT Monday afternoon-night. 
 
Coastal flooding may be major near the midnight Monday high tide cycle? Follow NWS. 
 
1) SPC HREF snowfall ensemble 24 hours ending 7P Monday, may be conservative.
2) Winter Storm Severity Index   issued 4am
3) NWS forecast snowfall not updated yet beyond 3AM. I will replace the snow graphic by 7AM with their 5AM updated version. 6A/31.
144735932_3309949465777045_8563962286331
 
 
143656123_3309949492443709_3238862381219
 
 
143341906_3309949472443711_2316470321591
 
NWS Ensemble prob for 8+ and 18+ issued at 430AM

Screen_Shot_2021-01-31_at_6_12.54_AM.png

Screen_Shot_2021-01-31_at_6_13.24_AM.png

you seem to think it's going to mix at the coast, Walt, however to me it looks like besides the twin forks and south of Toms River, this isn't going to mix, seems like OKX is leaning the same way?

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
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16 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

you seem to think it's going to mix at the coast, Walt, however to me it looks like besides the twin forks and south of Toms River, this isn't going to mix, seems like OKX is leaning the same way?

It is almost definitely going to mix for many but it’s inconsequential mixing because the mixing occurs during the dry slot. 

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Brian5671

Brian5671

Posted
Posted

upton: 

High winds will also impact the area with the storm. The peak
will be Mon and Mon eve. Gusts to around 60 mph still seem
likely, especially across the ern LI. Blizzard like conditions
can be expected with this storm, especially those areas near the
coast that remain all snow. An upgrade to a blizzard warning is
not out of the question for portions of the area. Those areas
most likely to go blizzard would be cstl CT, NYC, and wrn LI.
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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It is almost definitely going to mix for many but it’s inconsequential mixing because the mixing occurs during the dry slot. 

right thats happened quite often where over a foot can fall even so, so it just becomes academic.  also the coast needs to be defined better, big difference between say montauk and lynbrook.

 

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

NYC is iffy with the mixing. Heaviest amounts will likely be just N&W of the city. 

Regardless they should easily get up to a foot or more. 

I can give you a list of storms where JFK beat NYC even though JFK had some mixing and NYC did not.....Feb 1961 and Feb 1994 (second storm) are two examples, and March 1993 is also on that list.

 

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wdrag

wdrag

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Posted
40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

you seem to think it's going to mix at the coast, Walt, however to me it looks like besides the twin forks and south of Toms River, this isn't going to mix, seems like OKX is leaning the same way?

Please go with what you think. 06z/31 EC  still has it going to rain between 00z-03z/2 but by that time the damage done on LI/NYC.  Will be close for NYC but the dry slot is not good for continuous snow at marginal ice nuclei temps aloft   (need -7-8C in the > 70% RH column to allow for snow). This is for LI, so without cirrus seeding it looks difficult for me to see all snow NYC. This may change, but, as a forecaster, I need to take into account probabilistic forecasts... There's only an updated 60-70% chance of 8+ in NYC.  I can see a foot in NYC by 7P Monday, maybe a touch more.  Then whatever happens NYC after 7P, I've no answer tho I think mostly mixed or rain till it goes back to snow late Tuesday.  Go with what you think is best.  Hope that helps understand my considerations. 

Latest 06z/31 GGEM snowfall. Impressive! 06z/31 EC  10 to 1 snow ratio snowfall for NYC attached as well. Just enjoy whatever.  

 

Screen Shot 2021-01-31 at 7.25.49 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-31 at 7.42.09 AM.png

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HVSnowLover

HVSnowLover

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Please go with what you think. 06z/31 EC  still has it going to rain between 00z-03z/2 but by that time the damage done on LI/NYC.  Will be close for NYC but the dry slot is not good for continuous snow at marginal ice nuclei temps aloft   (need -7-8C in the > 70% RH column to allow for snow). This is for LI, so without cirrus seeding it looks difficult for me to see all snow NYC. This may change, but, as a forecaster, I need to take into account probabilistic forecasts... There's only an updated 60-70% chance of 8+ in NYC.  I can see a foot in NYC by 7P Monday, maybe a touch more.  Then whatever happens NYC after 7P, I've no answer tho I think mostly mixed or rain till it goes back to snow late Tuesday.  Go with what you think is best.  Hope that helps understand my considerations. 

Latest06z GGEM snowfall. Impressive! 06z 10 to 1 snow ratio snowfall for NYC attached as well. Just enjoy whatever.  

 

Screen Shot 2021-01-31 at 7.25.49 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-31 at 7.42.09 AM.png

Agree it’s hard to see LI not mixing on a prolonged east wind, euro even has mixing NW of the city during the dry slot. It’s possible as many are saying the models shift back east a bit today which would then move the mix line further east. Again it’s inconsequential because you wouldn’t be accumulating much in a dry slot anyway. 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Please go with what you think. 06z/31 EC  still has it going to rain between 00z-03z/2 but by that time the damage done on LI/NYC.  Will be close for NYC but the dry slot is not good for continuous snow at marginal ice nuclei temps aloft   (need -7-8C in the > 70% RH column to allow for snow). This is for LI, so without cirrus seeding it looks difficult for me to see all snow NYC. This may change, but, as a forecaster, I need to take into account probabilistic forecasts... There's only an updated 60-70% chance of 8+ in NYC.  I can see a foot in NYC by 7P Monday, maybe a touch more.  Then whatever happens NYC after 7P, I've no answer tho I think mostly mixed or rain till it goes back to snow late Tuesday.  Go with what you think is best.  Hope that helps understand my considerations. 

Latest 06z/31 GGEM snowfall. Impressive! 06z/31 EC  10 to 1 snow ratio snowfall for NYC attached as well. Just enjoy whatever.  

 

Screen Shot 2021-01-31 at 7.25.49 AM.png

Screen Shot 2021-01-31 at 7.42.09 AM.png

I saw the text description and the model maps, Walt, I think there should be a greater separation made between the eastern half of Suffolk County vs western Nassau County (whether south or north) in terms of the forecasts being put out just based on the maps.  I like the map you posted here, with 13-15 from SW Nassau to NYC, and lower totals (possibly half of that) on the twin forks.  They're about 100 miles east of here so that would make a huge difference of course.

 

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LibertyBell

LibertyBell

Posted
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2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Agree it’s hard to see LI not mixing on a prolonged east wind, euro even has mixing NW of the city during the dry slot. It’s possible as many are saying the models shift back east a bit today which would then move the mix line further east. Again it’s inconsequential because you wouldn’t be accumulating much in a dry slot anyway. 

the issue I have is treating long island like a conglomerate, eastern LI is 100 miles east of here lol, a big difference when it comes to a storm like this.  It may still mix this far west but it wont matter in terms of accumulations.  I also included a list of 3 storms where JFK mixed some and still beat NYC in accumulations.  I should also include the Millenium storm which didn't mix here but did just to our east on a further west track than this so that would make it 4 storms.

 

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