Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[jm1220]

Just now, USCG RS said:

Think that shifts East? 

I can't think of a storm this type that maxes out over E PA. A miller A certainly can like Jan 2016 or Jan 1996 but miller Bs typically are the best closer to the coast around here and into New England. Maybe this one will be a little different though due to the earlier development and maturing? I can think of plenty of Miller Bs though that ended up developing later than expected and ultimately trended east especially Juno in Jan 2015 and that storm of which we never speak Mar 2001. 

[USCG RS]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I can't think of a storm this type that maxes out over E PA. A miller A certainly can like Jan 2016 or Jan 1996 but miller Bs typically are the best closer to the coast around here and into New England. Maybe this one will be a little different though due to the earlier development and maturing? I can think of plenty of Miller Bs though that ended up developing later than expected and ultimately trended east especially Juno in Jan 2015 and that storm of which we never speak Mar 2001. 

Yeah... I remember both of those were pretty good for LI.  

[lordsnot]

13 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Still can't believe it'll be snowing tomorrow evening into Wednesday possibly. 

That is model vomit and rarely if ever comes to fruition.  I can only think of one, during the winter of 1996 maybe when it just kept snowing and snowing and snowing.

[SnoSki14]

Just now, jm1220 said:

I can't think of a storm this type that maxes out over E PA. A miller A certainly can like Jan 2016 or Jan 1996 but miller Bs typically are the best closer to the coast around here and into New England. Maybe this one will be a little different though due to the earlier development and maturing? I can think of plenty of Miller Bs though that ended up developing later than expected and ultimately trended east especially Juno in Jan 2015 and that storm of which we never speak Mar 2001. 

The more southern displacement of Atlantic blocking and strong ridging east of New England this year is partly why coastals, even Miller Bs may be closer to the coast. 

The ridge out west being further east than typical for big coastals probably helps us avoid a hugger.

[hudsonvalley21]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I can't think of a storm this type that maxes out over E PA. A miller A certainly can like Jan 2016 or Jan 1996 but miller Bs typically are the best closer to the coast around here and into New England. Maybe this one will be a little different though due to the earlier development and maturing? I can think of plenty of Miller Bs though that ended up developing later than expected and ultimately trended east especially Juno in Jan 2015 and that storm of which we never speak Mar 2001. 

Another thing that could be a factor is what Wdrag mentioned the other day in reference to the above normal SST’s off the NJ/DE coasts.

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The more southern displacement of Atlantic blocking and strong ridging east of New England this year is partly why coastals, even Miller Bs may be closer to the coast. 

The ridge out west being further east than typical for big coastals probably helps us avoid a hugger.

Yes and the fast Pacific pattern may be helping us for a change here. If this had time to sit around and dig/deepen it really would've been a snow event inland and mostly rain near the coast. 

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, hudsonvalley21 said:

Another thing that could be a factor is what Wdrag mentioned the other day in reference to the above normal SST’s off the NJ/DE coasts.

Absolutely-there'll be a ton of water being lifted on that 850mb jet on Monday. No doubt there will be some insane snow rates when the front end comes through. And it won't be booking either due to the fairly slow nature of the low. It'll essentially be a mini atmospheric river. 

[MJO812]

Blizzard warnings or Winter Storm Warnings by morning ?

[USCG RS]

5 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yes and the fast Pacific pattern may be helping us for a change here. If this had time to sit around and dig/deepen it really would've been a snow event inland and mostly rain near the coast. 

Yes. I was expecting the Pacific to pump the heights, flood the warmth and allow for several inches of rain into the Metro Area. Instead, we may end of with several inches of LEquiv snow. 

[Sn0waddict]

I thought they got rid of blizzard warnings?

[David-LI]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Blizzard warnings or Winter Storm Warnings by morning ?

WSW. Don't think we are expecting the sustained wind to meet Blizzard criteria.

[Snowlover11]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

I thought they got rid of blizzard warnings?

thhey only got rid of watches

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said:

I thought they got rid of blizzard warnings?

They got rid of Blizzard watches 

[David-LI]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

I thought they got rid of blizzard warnings?

Not that I'm aware. 

[jm1220]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

I thought they got rid of blizzard warnings?

No they still have them. They got rid of heavy snow warnings and blizzard watches. I could see it being a possibility (blizzard) especially south shore and eastern areas. You also need the 3 hour or longer duration and it's hard to say still how much mixing makes it to places that would get the strongest winds. 

[MJO812]

Ukie isn't bad

Not as strong as the other models 

[USCG RS]

1 minute ago, Sn0waddict said:

I thought they got rid of blizzard warnings?

They did. 

Edit: I thought they did. They only purged the watches. 

[Rjay]

Just now, USCG RS said:

They did. 

They got rid of blizzard watches

[Rjay]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Blizzard warnings or Winter Storm Warnings by morning ?

Blizzard warnings for at least nyc and LI

[USCG RS]

Just now, Rjay said:

They got rid of blizzard watches

Yeah - Just did some research to double check myself. Turned out I was wrong. I remember when they got rid of the watches, they were contemplating losing the warings as well. Guess they overruled. 

[SnoSki14]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie isn't bad

Not as strong as the other models 

Ukie has been all over the place with this one.

Unless the Euro agrees it's a clear outlier.

[jm1220]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Ukie has been all over the place with this one.

Unless the Euro agrees it's a clear outlier.

Not sure what it's doing here honestly. It looked slightly better than 12z FWIW

[HVSnowLover]

3 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Ukie has been all over the place with this one.

Unless the Euro agrees it's a clear outlier.

Just looks weird all around. Ukie has not been good with this storm so to me it’s a toss

[SACRUS]

[Greg g]

Monster storm 

[MJO812]

[Sn0waddict]

28 minutes ago, Greg g said:

Monster storm 

And that’s what it looks like before any sort of transfer. 

[Franklin0529]

She's juicy for sure

[jm1220]

32 minutes ago, Greg g said:

Monster storm 

:I remember the incredibly heavy snow band that formed like a fist (again I was living in TX then  )  as Jonas came in in Jan 2016, something similar probably happens this time as the mid level moist easterly jet cranks up. Let's hope anyway. 

[Noteaster101]

Euro running?