Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[sferic]

Just now, Rjay said:

16-24"

Liberty NY? 

[HVSnowLover]

17 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said:

That makes sense for LI but it seems like the city proper should be able to stay snow under the CCB with any change over occurring as precip lightens and the dry slot approaches.

Yes LI is long as someone mentioned earlier today. Montaulk is way further from Manhattan than Poughkeepsie is so lumping nyc/LI together in this set up may not happen. Honestly nyc best chance of heaviest snowfall is probably a little mixing on eastern LI as the best snows are usually  near the mix line 

[jm1220]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Going low

Para and Euro disagrees =)

It's essentially consensus at this point. NAM/GFSv16 are awesome but those amounts aren't happening here. Amped/warm usually wins out in the end. And it's hard to forecast big time amounts when you're relying on a huge burst at the beginning. Ratios won't be ideal and oftentimes the dryslot comes in earlier than expected like 12/17. That could've been a foot here if the front end hung on for longer but it shredded up and warm air took over. Hopefully this will be colder than that one was but I'd say 80-90% chance there's at least some rain east of the city. Hopefully that happens when the dryslot is overhead and little would be falling anyway. 

[Rjay]

Just now, sferic said:

Liberty NY? 

14-20"

[Rjay]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's essentially consensus at this point. NAM/GFSv16 are awesome but those amounts aren't happening here. Amped/warm usually wins out in the end. And it's hard to forecast big time amounts when you're relying on a huge burst at the beginning. Ratios won't be ideal and oftentimes the dryslot comes in earlier than expected like 12/17. That could've been a foot here if the front end hung on for longer but it shredded up and warm air took over. Hopefully this will be colder than that one was but I'd say 80-90% chance there's at least some rain east of the city. Hopefully that happens when the dryslot is overhead and little would be falling anyway. 

I would go 8-14" for LI and less for the twin forks.  

[HVSnowLover]

14 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

My call for now:

Central Park: 11"

White Plains: 14"

Danbury: 15"

JFK: 9"

Newark: 12"

Middletown, NY: 17"

Morristown, NJ: 16"

Bridgeport: 12"

Long Beach: 8"

Islip: 9"

Montauk: 4"

Asbury Park: 4"

Me/PSV88/NorthShoreWX: 11"

 

 

I’d go a little lower in Middletown but agree with the rest good forecast 

[Noteaster101]

Here in the southeast part of Rockland County New York in Pearl River, hoping for a solid 12 to 18 here

[White Gorilla]

Checked local temps forecast for Monday and Tuesday here in POU and it is borderline cold for snow (32F, 33F respectively) 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

It's essentially consensus at this point. NAM/GFSv16 are awesome but those amounts aren't happening here. Amped/warm usually wins out in the end. And it's hard to forecast big time amounts when you're relying on a huge burst at the beginning. Ratios won't be ideal and oftentimes the dryslot comes in earlier than expected like 12/17. That could've been a foot here if the front end hung on for longer but it shredded up and warm air took over. Hopefully this will be colder than that one was but I'd say 80-90% chance there's at least some rain east of the city. Hopefully that happens when the dryslot is overhead and little would be falling anyway. 

I'm with you on the amounts. I think 8-12 is a good call for NYC unless banding sets up like the Para.

[jm1220]

4 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I would go 8-14" for LI and less for the twin forks.  

Twin forks could be higher than I have (4-7") if the front end overproduces but later on it looks pretty crappy there with the east flow/warm air that takes a good while longer to get close to the city.

[Jt17]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

I'm with you on the amounts. I think 8-12 is a good call for NYC unless banding sets up like the Para.

Euro, NAM and Para are all 15+ for nyc bud, seems like you're just keeping out excitement in check lol!

[SnoSki14]

43 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yep, this has 0.3" or so as rain east of the city. Very nice outcome anyway but we don't want this getting more amped. Hopefully 0z shifts it back SE a little.

Models tend to tick NW until the very end but often the low actually ends up slightly east of projections as the storm is ongoing. 

However given what happened in December it's best to be cautious. Fingers crossed.

[jm1220]

I'm at about 9" for the season now, if this can get me to over 20" I'd be thrilled. 

[HVSnowLover]

6 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Euro, NAM and Para are all 15+ for nyc bud, seems like you're just keeping out excitement in check lol!

Models often overdo it a bit outside of banding zones so the conservative forecast for nyc right now is 8-12 but yes it could be more 

[mob1]

Great front end thump for everyone but with the storm so close to the coast on models now, these dry slots almost always penetrate deeper inland than modelled. 8-12 is a very realistic call. 

[friedmators]

Great front end thump for everyone but with the storm so close to the coast on models now, these dry slots almost always penetrate deeper inland than modelled. 8-12 is a very realistic call. 

The NAM always has a tendency to show snow instead of sleet with tucked lows. I’d love to not be a 850 line jockey for once.


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[friedmators]

HRRR trying to start the party early tomorrow.


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[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, mob1 said:

Great front end thump for everyone but with the storm so close to the coast on models now, these dry slots almost always penetrate deeper inland than modelled. 8-12 is a very realistic call. 

Lets hope for a nice band over our area

[HVSnowLover]

2 minutes ago, friedmators said:

The NAM always has a tendency to show snow instead of sleet with tucked lows. I’d love to not be a 850 line jockey for once.


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The NAM sniffed out the mid level warning and sleet the best with the December storm 

[Nibor]

18z Euro Ensembles didn't change much, very slightly west. Increased snow totals for the area.

[jm1220]

3 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The NAM sniffed out the mid level warning and sleet the best with the December storm 

NAM did very well with the Dec event. Euro and GFS (old version) were too cold. 

[jdj5211]

0z NAM running....have a gut this is going to be a monster run!

[Allsnow]

Nyc and Phl might do better then Boston on a Miller b crazy 

[Allsnow]

This will tick East tomorrow. Miller B always slip East inside 24 hours. Either way you slice it this is the biggest storm for the metro since 2016

[jm1220]

33 minutes ago, friedmators said:

HRRR trying to start the party early tomorrow.


.

Usually the snow begins sooner than expected with these. Probably won't start for most of us until tomorrow overnight. 

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Going low

Para and Euro disagrees =)

Ballsy going 15" for Danbury

And ~1 ft  City wide isn't exactly going low.

[jm1220]

5 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Nyc and Phl might do better then Boston on a Miller b crazy 

The strong east flow's a blessing and curse. Longitude west actually helps us this time. But we don't want a low stalling out just off Atlantic City or it's our turn sooner or later too. 

[jm1220]

Just now, eduggs said:

Ballsy going 15" for Danbury

And ~1 ft  City wide isn't exactly going low.

For the City I'd say 9-12" with 9" in the Rockaways/JFK and 12" in the Bronx. That's about what consensus is. These insane model outputs aren't happening. I'd be thrilled but I'll eat my shoe if I get the 24" the new GFS shows. 

[eduggs]

Just now, jm1220 said:

For the City I'd say 9-12" with 9" in the Rockaways/JFK and 12" in the Bronx. That's about what consensus is. These insane model outputs aren't happening. I'd be thrilled but I'll eat my shoe if I get the 24" the new GFS shows. 

I think the big totals are possible somewhere. We have the right ingredients. The problem is the jackpot zones aren't usually forecastable in advance of nowcasting time.

[Nibor]

Just now, jm1220 said:

For the City I'd say 9-12" with 9" in the Rockaways/JFK and 12" in the Bronx. That's about what consensus is. These insane model outputs aren't happening. I'd be thrilled but I'll eat my shoe if I get the 24" the new GFS shows. 

Does one season a shoe with rock salt?