Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[Cerinthe Major]

1 hour ago, dave0176 said:

I work for PSE&G on the gas and appliance side, they called forced OT for everyone already.

Glad to hear it (though sorry for anyone who has to work but doesn’t want the OT)! Lost our power in the December storm for more than 24 hours and still trying to get warm. I’m a little paranoid!

[wxallannj]

2 minutes ago, dave0176 said:

We get 12-18” of snow it’s gonna be interesting driving to customers houses for gas leaks and no heats lol Lotta OT coming, already told the wife expecting 16s........

Dave I put a leak in your queue

[Blizzardo]

Just now, jm1220 said:

 

Yessir!  I'll take the jackpot of 24+ right over my house for 2000, Ken....

[Sn0waddict]

1 hour ago, BlizzardNYC said:

I work for con Edison same here

I work at United illuminating and they are in storm mode as well.

[weatherpruf]

8 minutes ago, dave0176 said:

We get 12-18” of snow it’s gonna be interesting driving to customers houses for gas leaks and no heats lol Lotta OT coming, already told the wife expecting 16s........

Stay safe. For fun, you can check out the seals down at Sewaren; a friend was watching them near Smith creek the other day. A snow plow almost hit one a few years back right in Port Reading. He called me and said hey, there are some otters out there LOL...

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

 

These maps are always way overdone right? Otherwise people will be in for a shock. 

[sussexcountyobs]

8 minutes ago, dave0176 said:

We get 12-18” of snow it’s gonna be interesting driving to customers houses for gas leaks and no heats lol Lotta OT coming, already told the wife expecting 16s........

Been there 33 years. I'm done with the standby's and 16 hr days. Been there done with that. Just remember, where your ice grabbers on your feet. If u slip and get hurt, not wearing them, they will discipline you.

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, Cerinthe Major said:

Glad to hear it (though sorry for anyone who has to work but doesn’t want the OT)! Lost our power in the December storm for more than 24 hours and still trying to get warm. I’m a little paranoid!

Yeah reminds me to fire up the generator tomorrow though I'm usually ok in snow. It's wind and downed trees here that get us. 

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

These maps are always way overdone right? Otherwise people will be in for a shock. 

I highly doubt we get 25" of snow but its the new GFS version and hopefully onto something.

[Jt17]

2 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

These maps are always way overdone right? Otherwise people will be in for a shock. 

This isn't even a kuchera map with ratios. I'm sure that would look even more nuts!

[sussexcountyobs]

13 minutes ago, wxallannj said:

Dave I put a leak in your queue

Only 1? Easy night!!

[weatherpruf]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Been there 33 years. I'm done with the standby's and 16 hr days. Been there done with that. Just remember, where your ice grabbers on your feet. If u slip and get hurt, not wearing them, they will discipline you.

Where does the time go right? I just retired from a school system after 31 years ( not all in the same district, and not the same job ) and it went by in a flash. Don't miss sitting up all night working on IEP's and student reports you can't get done during the day because, well, you have kids to see. But I'd normally be psyched about a snow day as much as the kids; we'd be following online together. Alas, they are on remote now anyway. Such a changed world. 

[sussexcountyobs]

Just now, weatherpruf said:

Where does the time go right? I just retired from a school system after 31 years ( not all in the same district, and not the same job ) and it went by in a flash. Don't miss sitting up all night working on IEP's and student reports you can't get done during the day because, well, you have kids to see. But I'd normally be psyched about a snow day as much as the kids; we'd be following online together. Alas, they are on remote now anyway. Such a changed world. 

Yup. You can't stop father time. We are old now.

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

It's been extremely consistent the last 4 runs or so. Hope it and the NAM are onto it.

I think the GFS v16 is about the best look for the entire area, with the possible exception of far far NW areas. It's 18+ everywhere with highest ratios in areas with lowest QPF, widespread 2' totals, and a solid 40+ hours of precipitation ending as lingering scattered snow showers. It doesn't really get much better than that. In reality bands will likely setup that screw some and bury others.  And there will probably be mixing in some places (to I-95?) for a time.

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Yup. You can't stop father time. We are old now.

No regrets. I had a great career. It was an honor to serve the public.

[eduggs]

14 minutes ago, weatherpruf said:

These maps are always way overdone right? Otherwise people will be in for a shock. 

Yes usually overdone, especially near the mix line. But in this case I think it's pretty reasonable based on widespread 1.5" liquid falling in a mostly snow column. However there is some mixing on ELI and coastal NJ and I think the para is overdoing frontside QPF. If the synoptics evolve like that, there should be widespread 1' plus totals for sure.

[kat5hurricane]

Lock in that GFSv16, lock it in now. That would make 90% of us in this forum more than happy.

[weatherpruf]

4 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think the GFS v16 is about the best look for the entire area, with the possible exception of far far NW areas. It's 18+ everywhere with highest ratios in areas with lowest QPF, widespread 2' totals, and a solid 40+ hours of precipitation ending as lingering scattered snow showers. It doesn't really get much better than that. In reality bands will likely setup that screw some and bury others.  And there will probably be mixing in some places (to I-95?) for a time.

Sounds like the chances for a miss are getting slim....bout time.

[nycwinter]

both channel 4 and 7 showed  at some point monday afternoon the mix line making it to the city.

[coastalplainsnowman]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

I think the GFS v16 is about the best look for the entire area, with the possible exception of far far NW areas. It's 18+ everywhere with highest ratios in areas with lowest QPF, widespread 2' totals, and a solid 40+ hours of precipitation ending as lingering scattered snow showers. It doesn't really get much better than that. In reality bands will likely setup that screw some and bury others.  And there will probably be mixing in some places (to I-95?) for a time.

It's funny how most of us think on here.  When I say something like what you said above to my family, they respond to the effect of "I don't understand.  The people who get buried are the ones who get screwed."

[DaveTinNY]

WABC showing 12-18" just west of Rockland County....  the bull's eye has shifted NW...  I'm calling in on Monday as a Rockland to Dutchess County normal commuter.   As it looks this moment.  

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, weatherpruf said:

Sounds like the chances for a miss are getting slim....bout time.

Sure seems that way! And the radar to our west looks juicy!

[HVSnowLover]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Yes usually overdone, especially near the mix line. But in this case I think it's pretty reasonable based on widespread 1.5" liquid falling in a mostly snow column. However there is some mixing on ELI and coastal NJ and I think the para is overdoing frontside QPF. If the synoptics evolve like that, there should be widespread 1' plus totals for sure.

I see no reason why there won’t be widespread 1 foot totals. 18+ will be more isolated 

[wdrag]

Hi: Delayed Interesting guidance herein. 

1) 18z GGEM op... snowfall.   Max near ABE. in MM.  Looks like 20"

2) 00z GGEM op... snowfall.  Max near ABE. in MM    Looks like 20"

3) Prob of 8" our the next 72 hrs. NYC sitting on about 70% chance.  See legend for probs your area.

4) Prob of 18"...bullseye west of Harrisburg so my thinking of Poconos could be very much too far north? I'm still going with that but use your best judgement. 

5) NWS 4PM collaborated snowfall only through 7PM Tuesday, 

6) NWS 4PM Storm Severity index which takes into account snow load, wind, snowfall etc. 

7) Potential Allentown top 20  two - day snow storm? XMACIS evaluation attached. If this is wrong, please let me know. Thanks!

I śaw the GFSv16 holding onto 10-24" I78 through LI.  Could be right but I am trusting the NWS probs and thinking that eventually  modeling will shift a little more north but, jury out.

This not only could be power outage snow but also heart attack snow, especially in areas where snow is mostly 31-33F and water equiv over 1.5"  

I don't think traveling I80-I78 PA/NJ into w LI is a good idea and anticipate many cancels. 

Check back tomorrow and will begin the OBS thread at that time with baselined snow depth to start. 

Have a good night. 

[eduggs]

Just now, coastalplainsnowman said:

It's funny how most of us think on here.  When I say something like what you said above to my family, they respond to the effect of "I don't understand.  The people who get buried are the ones who get screwed."

 Same in my family and I'm sure many others on here. But it's nice to know we're not the only crazies out there.

[eduggs]

1 minute ago, HVSnowLover said:

I see no reason why there won’t be widespread 1 foot totals. 18+ will be more isolated 

I agree it sure looks like that. But 1' snowstorms are rare outside the mountains. A lot has to go right - almost perfectly.  Even in the short term, ensemble averages are rarely over that threshold. There's always a lot of uncertainty that can spoil a setup. So I think it's usually prudent to stay relatively conservative until it's basically nowcast time. The impact usually isn't so different between 12" and 20" unless we're talking about a heavy wet snow. So holding something back I think is fine from a forecasting perspective.

[crossbowftw3]

5 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Hi: Delayed Interesting guidance herein. 

1) 18z GGEM op... snowfall.   Max near ABE. in MM.  Looks like 20"

2) 00z GGEM op... snowfall.  Max near ABE. in MM    Looks like 20"

3) Prob of 8" our the next 72 hrs. NYC sitting on about 70% chance.  See legend for probs your area.

4) Prob of 18"...bullseye west of Harrisburg so my thinking of Poconos could be very much too far north? I'm still going with that but use your best judgement. 

5) NWS 4PM collaborated snowfall only through 7PM Tuesday, 

6) NWS 4PM Storm Severity index which takes into account snow load, wind, snowfall etc. 

7) Potential Allentown top 20  two - day snow storm? XMACIS evaluation attached. If this is wrong, please let me know. Thanks!

I śaw the GFSv16 holding onto 10-24" I78 through LI.  Could be right but I am trusting the NWS probs and thinking that eventually  modeling will shift a little more north but, jury out.

This not only could be power outage snow but also heart attack snow, especially in areas where snow is mostly 31-33F and water equiv over 1.5"  

I don't think traveling I80-I78 PA/NJ into w LI is a good idea and anticipate many cancels. 

Check back tomorrow and will begin the OBS thread at that time with baselined snow depth to start. 

Have a good night. 

Walt,

Any idea on ratios for inland folks? I'd think similar in stature to 12/17--guessing 10-13/14:1 again with temps not getting much above 27-29 during daytime Monday and falling back between 23-26

[Cerinthe Major]

15 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

It's funny how most of us think on here.  When I say something like what you said above to my family, they respond to the effect of "I don't understand.  The people who get buried are the ones who get screwed."

I first got interested in following weather because I couldn’t believe I had found other adults who also wanted lots of snow and thunderstorms! (Kids were always on my side.)

[BlizzLuv]

13 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said:

It's funny how most of us think on here.  When I say something like what you said above to my family, they respond to the effect of "I don't understand.  The people who get buried are the ones who get screwed."

I grew up in the Buffalo Niagara Falls area. I get excited whenever a snow event like this is brewing. After 37 years of marriage my wife still does not understand my excitement and how a storm missing us or underperforming is a bad thing. 

[Snowlover11]

18z euro running anyone have access?