Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, Cerinthe Major said:

I worry that power companies won’t be prepared

We are prepared.  Extra crews are on standby.

[lee59]

Just now, Snowlover11 said:

for weather eye sites look at what the rgem does southwest of us, good lord!

 

Yea the rgem seems to keep the coastal more tucked in and the nam more offshore

[justinj]

26 minutes ago, TriPol said:

Channel 7 says 6-10" for the city. What a joke.

Still possible

[psv88]

1 minute ago, justinj said:

The weather channel forecast has Islip airport turning to complete rain lol

It might at the end 

[495weatherguy]

1 minute ago, justinj said:

The weather channel forecast has Islip airport turning to complete rain lol

Still possible

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, justinj said:

The weather channel forecast has Islip airport turning to complete rain lol

Why is that impossible? At least for a time?

[nycwinter]

4 minutes ago, mannylovessnow said:

For reference Channel 2 is saying 6-12" and Channel 4 is saying 8-12" for the city

last night channel 4 was 5-8 for the city..

[David-LI]

5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

It’ll be completely different in 6 hours

What are you seeing that the models aren't? Enlighten us.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, justinj said:

Still possible

I would go with 6-12 to be conservative 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, lee59 said:

Yea the rgem seems to keep the coastal more tucked in and the nam more offshore

A compromise would be nice. 

I have a feeling north central NJ extending into eastern PA could jackpot here. 

Under WSW for 11-15" which is pretty good given where we stand.

I think we are more likely to see higher amounts than lower with this storm given the extended duration and intense easterly moisture flow.

[jm1220]

The RGEM deepens the trough more and strengthens the low early which causes it to be more of a coast hugger for a time and also bring in warm air around from the east. It backed away from this a little this run from 12z but hopefully that continues and the trough can be more progressive. 

[Heisy]

6 minutes ago, David-LI said:

What are you seeing that the models aren't? Enlighten us.

20 years of following the eta and NAM model. Run after run during big snowstorms. I’m not saying nyc region isn’t doing awesome in this storm at all, what it did for pa and nw sections is a joke that’s all

[SnowGoose69]

The RGEM amounts make no sense even if its features ended up correct.  Bigger amounts would occur in NE PA and NW NJ.  Some of those areas with those insane totals on that snow map would downslope

[HVSnowLover]

21 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

oh of course not but just to see that is crazy lol

It’s a sign the run is probably wrong when it’s producing such unrealistic totals in one location

[dave0176]

23 minutes ago, Cerinthe Major said:

I worry that power companies won’t be prepared

I work for PSE&G on the gas and appliance side, they called forced OT for everyone already.

[Brian5671]

25 minutes ago, mannylovessnow said:

For reference Channel 2 is saying 6-12" and Channel 4 is saying 8-12" for the city

vendor thread pls -who cares what they say?

[HVSnowLover]

19 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Still possible

Honestly kind of likely. I’d trust Ukmet/ecm/cmc combo at this range the most

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Just now, dave0176 said:

I work for PSE&G on the gas and appliance side, they called forced OT for everyone already.

I work for con Edison same here

[coastalplainsnowman]

For the long islanders, I know there a lot of folks here who like Joe Cioffi, myself included.  I think he was posting here at one point (maybe is still posting here?)

He's got LI at "at least 6-12" to the west, "at least 4-6" east.

https://www.meteorologistjoecioffi.com/winter-storm-watch-long-island-sunday-night-into-tuesday-at-least-6-to-12-inches-forecast/

[sussexcountyobs]

1 minute ago, dave0176 said:

I work for PSE&G on the gas and appliance side, they called forced OT for everyone already.

What's up PS brother. I knew this storm was coming, and called in a vacation day for Monday this past Wednesday. 

[uncle W]

there will probably be coastal flooding in the usual spots with this storm...maybe the unusual spots if it stalls long enough...

[HVSnowLover]

Ignore gfs qpf because it’s garbage but the look of the storm is much more in line with the global than the NAM 

[495weatherguy]

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Honestly kind of likely. I’d trust Ukmet/ecm/cmc combo at this range the most

I agree-don’t have the background or knowledge base to support my theory.  Just practical experience tells me that rain will somehow get into the forecast for Long Island.

[nightknights]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

This would be 2-4"/hr under this band. 

 

Be nice extended inland another 10 miles dont want to be too picky

[MJO812]

[Snowlover11]

gfs is torchy, at the coast.

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, 495weatherguy said:

I agree-don’t have the background or knowledge base to support my theory.  Just practical experience tells me that rain will somehow get into the forecast for Long Island.

You can add gfs to that list. Doesn’t mean they can’t tick back east a bit but right now NAM is on its own with the evolution of the storm 

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, Snowlover11 said:

gfs is torchy, at the coast.

Upper 30s eastern LI. NYC maxes at 35

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

gfs is torchy, at the coast.

Uh?

[HVSnowLover]

This will be congrats PA/NJ or congrats NYC/LI depending on track but either way everyone is getting a good storm