Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[HVSnowLover]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Uhh? No it didnt

Yea I was focused on nyc changing to rain at the end but yes it’s quite a thump first 

[White Gorilla]

21 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

This solution looks very reasonable and high probability given all the guidance.  A nice 6-12er by me and 12-20 NYC immediate metro and west. 

[HVSnowLover]

This has gone from long duration light to moderate snow to some light snow to extremely heavy snow to light mix or drizzle

[jm1220]

The Euro did dig more and has the stalled/tucked kind of solution where warm air can wrap around from the east. So we don't want that continuing especially east of NYC. 

[friedmators]

I expect Blizzard Warnings between 195 and 80 for sure.


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[HVSnowLover]

Just now, jm1220 said:

The Euro did dig more and has the stalled/tucked kind of solution where warm air can wrap around from the east. So we don't want that continuing especially east of NYC. 

I’d could see possible flooding for eastern LI if it’s like 6-12 inches of snow and then a period of heavy rain. From NYC west any flip to rain I would think is light and at the tail end 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, jm1220 said:

The Euro did dig more and has the stalled/tucked kind of solution where warm air can wrap around from the east. So we don't want that continuing especially east of NYC. 

Yeah, which is why at first it appeared to be coming in south but in the end it ticked a bit north

[NJsnow89]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

I’d could see possible flooding for eastern LI if it’s like 6-12 inches of snow and then a period of heavy rain. From NYC west any flip to rain I would think is light and at the tail end 

There is NO rain anywhere NYC west. Not sure why you keep saying that. 

[sferic]

@Ericjcrash@crossbowftw3  @snywx Not bad for ALL of us 6-12 looks likely

[SnoSki14]

Just now, jm1220 said:

The Euro did dig more and has the stalled/tucked kind of solution where warm air can wrap around from the east. So we don't want that continuing especially east of NYC. 

Regardless we should still get 6-12" from the overrunning and initial dump. We may also get some backside snows as the low pulls east. 

There's no need to panic. 

[winterwarlock]

36 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I like 12-15” for NYC. 6-12” for LI and Central Jersey. 12-18” for LHV and 18-24” for Eastern PA and NW NJ.

 

 

why only 6-12 for central jersey?

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, NJsnow89 said:

There is NO rain anywhere NYC west. Not sure why you keep saying that. 

Euro and cmc show rain making it to nyc, not sure about ukie? 
 

No rain for northern NJ 

[SnowGoose69]

You can see at 60-66 the Euro picks up on the fact there will be an insane mega band near or just north of NYC

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, sferic said:

@Ericjcrash@crossbowftw3  @snywx Not bad for ALL of us 6-12 looks likely

I'm up in Amsterdam now and Euro shafts me, but yeah 6-12" looks good 

[SnoSki14]

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

Euro and cmc show rain making it to nyc, not sure about ukie? 

That wouldn't be rain it would be a dry slot. Probably freezing drizzle.

[friedmators]

You can see at 60-66 the Euro picks up on the fact there will be an insane mega band near or just north of NYC

Do you have access to Omega? Are we in the DGZ?


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[SnowGoose69]

That east inflow is up there with February 83.  Dec 09 was a similar evolution to Feb 83 but the best inflow and dynamics occurred south over NJ and again over SNE.  This time its gonna be the real deal in this area

[nflwxman]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That wouldn't be rain it would be a dry slot. Probably freezing drizzle.

Yeah all the frames with "rain" are essentially <0.01" of QPF on the Euro. That's the typical frizzle you get after big storms, and I do expect it to happen here. Could it compress the pack? Sure. Another reason to make sure you measure frequently with this storm, as it's a long drawn out event.

[NJsnow89]

2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

Euro and cmc show rain making it to nyc, not sure about ukie? 
 

No rain for northern NJ 

Dude, it’s not rain! There’s a dry slot but no rain. 

[snywx]

Just now, sferic said:

@Ericjcrash@crossbowftw3  @snywx Not bad for ALL of us 6-12 looks likely

Every piece of guidance outside of the GFS has now trended in our favor. 8”+ looks likely now with the potential for much much more. 

[SnoSki14]

This will likely be one of the more gustier storms we see. Good chance of 40-55mph gusts near the coast.

It should be a fun event. Don't sweat every model run.

[nesussxwx]

that CCB rots all the way up near Binghamton or am I reading the map wrong? Models have shifted dramatically the last 24 hours, wow.

[mannynyc]

Just now, snywx said:

Every piece of guidance outside of the GFS has now trended in our favor. 8”+ looks likely now with the potential for much much more. 

8-12” throughout the metro feels pretty likely right now. 

[snywx]

Just now, mannylovessnow said:

8-12” throughout the metro feels pretty likely right now. 

My focus is more along the I84 corridor. Sorry for the confusion

[Blizzardo]

1 minute ago, mannylovessnow said:

8-12” throughout the metro feels pretty likely right now. 

Likely 12+....

[SnowGoose69]

When I said days ago I would rather be in NYC than SNE I did not mean it for the reason it may transpire lol...the way the system tracks trying to make the appearance of an exit and then taking the north hook or turn like 3/2013 could allow warmer air to make enrodes there faster/more west.  My initial concerns were the jackpot of snow would simply be SW of them

[HVSnowLover]

Ok I stand corrected euro is not a rain threat but it still looks like it ticked a bit NW

[sferic]

10 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

I'm up in Amsterdam now and Euro shafts me, but yeah 6-12" looks good 

Go home !

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

6 minutes ago, snywx said:

Every piece of guidance outside of the GFS has now trended in our favor. 8”+ looks likely now with the potential for much much more. 

I'd also like to see other than a 10:1 snow map. From 30 miles north of NYC I'm thinking ratios will be more like 12 to 14:1.

[White Gorilla]

25 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

that CCB rots all the way up near Binghamton or am I reading the map wrong? Models have shifted dramatically the last 24 hours, wow.

I would laugh with misery if Binghamton to Alb jackpots like 12/17 again.  Euro and other models show different qpf distribution this time, however.