Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[495weatherguy]

48 minutes ago, justinj said:

Is anyone really that concerned with mixing for Li?

Here

 

never seems to fail

[eduggs]

Judging from the model charts (EC, CMC, NAM), I think the area of strongest mid-level frontogenesis associated with the deformation zone/comma head could move pretty far NW as the SLP matures. The pivot point could also end up pretty far NW. I could see intense bands move through our area before stalling a bit west of us. Maybe even a dryslot moving in from the southeast. Where the heaviest precipitation sets up and where it pivots will largely determine the heaviest snow axis. Of course the long duration makes big totals possible in a lot of places. We probably really won't know the likely distribution far in advance. 

Remember the 20+ inch totals for Dec. 17th were not expected so far NW even at the start of the event.

[White Gorilla]

Is the system being fully sampled yet?  How about the confluence parameters?  Any forecast changes? 

[snowman19]

10 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

How much closer do we see these goalposts narrow today do you think? I’m still discounting bigger totals this far north in Sullivan but as I’ve said all morning marginal warning level snows seems to be growing ever plausible here. 

I think this corrects even further south tonight. The models were too far west and north at 0Z IMO, we just saw the correction from the NAM, I think this continues

[NEG NAO]

4 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

How much closer do we see these goalposts narrow today do you think? I’m still discounting bigger totals this far north in Sullivan but as I’ve said all morning marginal warning level snows seems to be growing ever plausible here. 

I am discounting those over the top models showing 20 something inches of snow in North Central NJ the NWS has the right idea staying conservative with the totals with still around 30 + hours to go before the event even begins.........

[White Gorilla]

I will be happy with 6-12 here in Central /Southern Dutchess. Highly doubt 20 like the NAM shows.  Bullseye in NYC, N NJ, happy for you guys. 

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I think this corrects even further south tonight. The models were too far west and north at 0Z IMO, we just saw the correction from the NAM, I think this continues

There is a tendency with most big storms to see a movement in the 48-90 range which then reverses back.  I still think QPF will be underestimated with this due to that crazy easterly flow

[eduggs]

1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Likely 7pm-1am Sunday night but the first few hours of this event will probably be pretty meaningless light snow 

Light yes, but I'm not so sure meaningless with temps below freezing.  It doesn't take much to coat roads and transform everything to winter.

[SnoSki14]

31 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There is a good snowstorm coming for NYC, no doubt. Twitter is ridiculous though, I’m seeing people comparing this storm to February, 2006, January, 2016, December, 2010, February, 2010, January, 1996. Ludicrous comparisons, completely different setups, totally. Some people go with the most historic snowstorms ever in NYC every time a storm is coming and say they are great analogs and identical setups and run with it for hype and clickbait. It’s like everytime there’s a storm off the east coast, those historic storms become “great analogs” and “identical setups” to some, every winter.....

That's because any 12"+ storm is historic for us and this one looks to nail everyone from DC to Boston, which is even rarer...from a Miller B no less. 

Given the amount of moisture fed into this and the lengthy period of snow I could see why Jan 2016 could be mentioned. 

Don't see why we can't see 20"+ amounts honestly.

[MJO812]

8-12 inches is a good call for NYC with higher amounts in banding

[White Gorilla]

22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That's because any 12"+ storm is historic for us and this one looks to nail everyone from DC to Boston, which is even rarer...from a Miller B no less. 

Given the amount of moisture fed into this and the lengthy period of snow I could see why Jan 2016 could be mentioned. 

Don't see why we can't see 20"+ amounts honestly.

Yes, with a nice easterly fetch, I can see some places approaching 20 near the coast 

[friedmators]

RGEM and 3K are worlds apart with timing.

[Blizzardo]

In a long duration storm of this caliber... 12-18 is rather easy with lollies to 24+ under the death bands.. IF it pans out ......

[friedmators]

RGEM is tucked. dry slot n rain after 5-10

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, friedmators said:

RGEM is tucked. dry slot n rain after 5-10

I’m pretty confident this will NOT to be tucked....

[jm1220]

Just now, allgame830 said:

I’m pretty confident this will NOT to be tucked....

Hopefully not tucked like this at least. The elongated nature of this can help it really dump somewhere but it also brings in warm air just as much on the easterly flow. Just have to hope those mid level low tracks stay SE of us. 

[LVblizzard]

The RGEM is just weird. DC and Baltimore get a blizzard while NYC and Boston mix with rain.

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, LVblizzard said:

The RGEM is just weird. DC and Baltimore get a blizzard while NYC and Boston mix with rain.

Picking up on a weakening confluence?  I don't think this RGEM solution will verify.  

[SnowGoose69]

The RGEM beyond 36 has often had a tendency to overamp and go crazy.  It does it less often since I believe they upgraded it in 2018 but you'll still see it, especially with these dynamic east coast storms

[allgame830]

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

Hopefully not tucked like this at least. The elongated nature of this can help it really dump somewhere but it also brings in warm air just as much on the easterly flow. Just have to hope those mid level low tracks stay SE of us. 

Agreed I just hope the whole area averages 12”... I got 14” from the Dec storm so I am hoping the whole area takes advantage of that and not just NW of I95..

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The RGEM beyond 36 has often had a tendency to overamp and go crazy.  It does it less often since I believe they upgraded it in 2018 but you'll still see it, especially with these dynamic east coast storms

Good to keep in mind model biases 

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, White Gorilla said:

Good to keep in mind model biases 

Basically the RGEM and NAM are pretty unreliable past 48...especially when they're doing something way different than other models or waffling around from run to run.  Even the NAM right now I would not trust entirely past 36-48 with this since its been bouncing around quite a bit

[jm1220]

The GFS v16 went even more berserk at 6z for everyone except the far northern areas and even they would have a nice event in the end. Has over 2" liquid as snow for NYC and Long Island, 1" up to about I-84. 

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

The GFS v16 went even more berserk at 6z for everyone except the far northern areas and even they would have a nice event in the end. Has over 2" liquid as snow for NYC and Long Island, 1" up to about I-84. 

It did much better with the December storm than the v15.

 

[White Gorilla]

Remember that scientific article about warmer ocean temps leading to higher moisture feed that lead to insane snow amounts near Binghamton in Dec that no model predicted?  Keep that in mind even with a different setup this time. . 

[jm1220]

23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The  12z NAM would be  a widespread 12”+ event across the region. The areas that get the best banding will probably go 18”+. Nice banding signal from the NAM with steep midlevel lapse rates through the event.

 

NAM supports a crazy snow band that would drop much of our snow here over a 6-8 hour period or so on Mon afternoon. This is for 18z Mon 

 

Inland gets there in the end but it's lighter snow over a longer duration. 

[jm1220]

Wow.... 

[crossbowftw3]

That’s a legit death band if I’ve ever seen one. Surely >3” an hour would be going on in that 

[Monmouth_County_Jacpot]

Who doing the pbp for gfs

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

Remember that scientific article about warmer ocean temps leading to higher moisture feed that lead to insane snow amounts near Binghamton in Dec that no model predicted?  Keep that in mind even with a different setup this time. . 

Yeah, the December 2020 storm was more tucked in than the January 2016 event. So the heaviest snowfall zones were different. But both storms had the record SST warmth to work with.