Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[Ericjcrash]

Wow

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

14 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I want to move to Oswego. 

I have several friends that went to college there. A snow lovers paradise. Over 200 inches a year in their average seasons. 

[sferic]

1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

Wow

What is your guestimate for our counties if Euro is correct, and duration?

[Ericjcrash]

3 minutes ago, sferic said:

What is your guestimate for our counties if Euro is correct, and duration?

You're in better shape than me at the moment, Sullivan should get crushed. Too much model volatility right now to have any confidence.

[jm1220]

Crazy 850mb easterly jet into our region by 21z Monday. Seems like it strengthened from last run. This would be a hellacious 6-8 hour or so period of snow I-80 in NJ to LI. 

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Crazy 850mb easterly jet into our region by 21z Monday. Seems like it strengthened from last run. This would be a hellacious 6-8 hour or so period of snow I-80 in NJ to LI. 

Yeah, can easily get a foot in a 6 hour span.

[sferic]

2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

You're in better shape than me at the moment, Sullivan should get crushed. 

It could switch too, are we  good in your opinion for a long duration 18-24 hours?

[Rjay]

3 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Crazy 850mb easterly jet into our region by 21z Monday. Seems like it strengthened from last run. This would be a hellacious 6-8 hour or so period of snow I-80 in NJ to LI. 

 

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, sferic said:

It could switch too, are good in your opinion for a long duration 18-24 hours?

Yeah, but someone is going to get dryslotted and CCb will sit and rot. Whoever stays under it is going to get crushed. City should get that initial pounding which this euro run was impressive. 

[andyhb]

Things you probably want to see if you're wanting a big hit out of this thing in this sub-forum.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, Rjay said:

Even @Juliancolton who's just south of Plattsburgh or something.  

he's in a great place for the April 2024 total solar eclipse and he's offered to house and feed all of us who are going eclipse hunting

[sferic]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

Yeah, but someone is going to get dryslotted and CCb will sit and rot. Whoever stays under it is going to get crushed. City should get that initial pounding which this euro run was impressive. 

And models can't narrow that in advance, right, so the day of the event we see. Looking good though, especialy since we're adding to a solid base

[jm1220]

1 minute ago, Rjay said:

 

Yup, that will be insane. If this warm intrusion/dryslot idea stays hopefully that rocks us first. 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, uncle W said:

this is one of those storms when my back yard should get more than Manhattan and the Bronx...since I moved here I'v been on the low side of most storms...

looks like the south shore of nassau should do well too....

what do you think of the Dec 2009 analog that neg nao brought up

[Ericjcrash]

Just now, sferic said:

And models can't narrow that in advance, right, so the day of the event we see. Looking good though, especialy since we're adding to a solid base

We'd like to see some consistency first, wild wild swings run to run across the board tonight. 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

I don’t remember the last time there’s been an all snow event in a major storm anywhere south of I287. Even December storm mixed. Maybe March 2018? 

lol wasnt that long ago

[sferic]

Just now, Ericjcrash said:

We'd like to see some consistency first, wild wild swings run to run across the board tonight. 

True,

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’ve been going 6-10 so far for NYC, less north and west more east haha but not more specific 

why not 10+ if its going to be all snow?  If this is like Dec 2009, NYC got 10 inches and JFK got 15 inches if I remember correctly- do you see something like that?

[LibertyBell]

6 hours ago, HVSnowLover said:

It’s unfortunately almost impossible for eastern LI to stay all snow and I84 corridor to get good snow but hopefully everyone gets in on this. 

Feb 2003? how did you do in that one?

[jm1220]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

lol wasnt that long ago

Mar 21, 2018, Jan 3 2018, etc etc from before then. The idea that "the big ones always mix on the coast" is wrong. I wasn't here for these but I assume 1/25/15 and 1/27/16 didn't mix on the coast? PDII had maybe a few sleet pellets in Long Beach but was otherwise all snow. 12/30/00 was all snow for me. 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, sferic said:

True,

how come you cant visit Lynbrook for the storm?

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Mar 21, 2018, Jan 3 2018, etc etc from before then. The idea that "the big ones always mix on the coast" is wrong. I wasn't here for these but I assume 1/25/15 and 1/27/16 didn't mix on the coast? PDII had maybe a few sleet pellets in Long Beach but was otherwise all snow. 12/30/00 was all snow for me. 

I blame the dolts in the media who seem to have "north and west" plastered to their foreheads and then get surprised when eastern or northern Long Island jackpots.  I wonder if anyone has ever done a statistical analysis to figure out what percentage jackpots in our region on an average yearly basis.  I'd guess Long Island jackpots on average about one third of the time.

Now if you want to talk about a region that rarely jackpots on Long Island it'd be the south shore.  Probably even less than the Jersey Coast does.  I'd guess the south shore of Long Island jackpots 10% of the time in big storms and those are in mostly storms that occur in moderate or strong el ninos (examples:  Feb 1983, PD2, Jan 2016).  and yup none of the ones you listed mixed here.

 

 

[sferic]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

how come you cant visit Lynbrook for the storm?

Don't want to leave my family alone in case I get stuck in Lynbrook ; everyone is doing the remote thing here so Liberty it is. First time ever I spent a winter up here. Love it and heading north when my wife retires; Trying to find the absolute best location for most snow

[LibertyBell]

Just now, sferic said:

Don't want to leave my family alone in case I get stuck in Lynbrook ; everyone is doing the remote thing here so Liberty it is. First time ever I spent a winter up here. Love it and heading north when my wife retires; Trying to find the absolute best location for most snow

I know what you mean- I have a second home in the Poconos.  Being far away from everything does make things boring so I'm going to keep both places for now.

[sferic]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

I know what you mean- I have a second home in the Poconos.  Being far away from everything does make things boring so I'm going to keep both places for now.

Lets pray SALT is returned for our property taxes. In the meantime exciting 96 hours coming up

[Sn0waddict]

11 minutes ago, andyhb said:

Things you probably want to see if you're wanting a big hit out of this thing in this sub-forum.

Damn remember him from the eastern days. The WAA would definitely prevent that for the DC folks but I would gladly take Boxing Day 2.0 lol.  One of my favorite storms ever to track.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Sn0waddict said:

Damn remember him from the eastern days. The WAA would definitely prevent that for the DC folks but I would gladly take Boxing Day 2.0 lol.  One of my favorite storms ever to track.

the winds in that one were some of the strongest I've ever witnessed in a snowstorm

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I blame the dolts in the media who seem to have "north and west" plastered to their foreheads and then get surprised when eastern or northern Long Island jackpots.  I wonder if anyone has ever done a statistical analysis to figure out what percentage jackpots in our region on an average yearly basis.  I'd guess Long Island jackpots on average about one third of the time.

Now if you want to talk about a region that rarely jackpots on Long Island it'd be the south shore.  Probably even less than the Jersey Coast does.  I'd guess the south shore of Long Island jackpots 10% of the time in big storms and those are in mostly storms that occur in moderate or strong el ninos (examples:  Feb 1983, PD2, Jan 2016).  and yup none of the ones you listed mixed here.

 

 

I totally agree, Nemo from Feb 2013 could have been 24" in Long Beach but we wasted 3 hours to sleet when northern Nassau/Suffolk was pounding so it definitely happens, but there's no "the big ones mix" rule anywhere. 1/3/18 was all snow down to Ocean City MD. It's about the low tracks and cold air availability. 

[Ericjcrash]

EPS is lovely. 

[sferic]

My favorites 2.9.69 ( Lindsey storm)

Blizzard Feb 1975 ( yes sleet mixed in while I was in Brooklyn)

February 1983 was a memorable one too

 

In the early 2000.s Blizzards became so commonm place