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Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.


wdrag
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Just now, jm1220 said:

Yeah, that’s about as good as it gets. Far NW is still fringed but that’s a crusher for 90-95% of us. 

I think it’s fair to say the “graze” solutions are less likely now. The north trend is real and the ridging out west is robust. 

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Just now, Neblizzard said:

I think it’s fair to say the “graze” solutions are less likely now. The north trend is real and the ridging out west is robust. 

I don't think we can be too sure of anything at this point. The overrunning still barely makes it to our latitude, and the wraparound could easily end up weaker or further southeast.  This is definitely a tenuous setup. Small upper level changes will lead to hugely different local weather outcomes.

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1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

That's about as far north as I want the NAM for my backyard. The mid level low tracks are still good for coastal areas but there's a dryslot and mild 850mb air that makes it to SE areas. Hellacious front end thump though before anything like that which the 12"+ amounts come from. 

The NAM is really cold too, nyc is upper 20s most of the storm 

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42 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

NAM probably gonna be way north although I don’t bother taking it seriously after 60 hours 

What it shows up to 48hrs is likely legit and by then it has a wall of snow from the overrunning coming in. 

The Nam's crazy totals are possible given the very slow movement and moisture feed. It's gonna snow for a while. 

However I'd rather play it safe for now. Let's see what the others show.

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  • wdrag changed the title to Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.
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