Major Nor'easter near blizzard (6"+ most of our area-best chance 20-30" north of I78 in ne PA, nw NJ, se NYS)-ice-rain-power outage NYC subforum late Sunday Jan 31-early Tue Feb 2.

[USCG RS]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

The flow becomes more NNE by the time the better snows get north of the city which is why I think the max benefits of that 850 easterly flow probably happen from around the city south 

Any forecast for the area? Or still too early?  

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, USCG RS said:

Any forecast for the area? Or still too early?  

I’ve been going 6-10 so far for NYC, less north and west more east haha but not more specific 

[HVSnowLover]

7 minutes ago, Lawnguyland said:

I can't remember last time we had an all snow event on l.i.  And I am in the snow removal business! Every storm in last bunch of years, aside from 1 to 2 inch storms, seem to be snow, rain and sleet. A foot of plain snow would be great! Especially if it takes 30 hrs to fall, easier to keep up with. 

Really appreciate all the thought you all put into making this such a great resource for forecasts, knowledge and sometimes humor!

I don’t remember the last time there’s been an all snow event in a major storm anywhere south of I287. Even December storm mixed. Maybe March 2018? 

[Nibor]

18z EPS bumped NW.

[uncle W]

this is one of those storms when my back yard should get more than Manhattan and the Bronx...since I moved here I'v been on the low side of most storms...

[HVSnowLover]

34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I’ve been going 6-10 so far for NYC, less north and west more east haha but not more specific 

Seems like a good call right now. Hope the 0z runs tick a bit nw won’t take much to get nyc into the 10+ zone 

[sferic]

@crossbowftw3 I am hearing and seeing nw tick; see that too on srefs?

[crossbowftw3]

1 minute ago, sferic said:

@crossbowftw3 I am hearing and seeing nw tick; see that too on srefs?

Still need more than a few extra ticks to get much more than 3-6/4-8 north of 84, looking like somewhere between 84-95 and points SW of there should be the definites for 8+.

[sferic]

9 minutes ago, crossbowftw3 said:

Still need more than a few extra ticks to get much more than 3-6/4-8 north of 84, looking like somewhere between 84-95 and points SW of there should be the definites for 8+.

We certainly will be monitoring this !

[Rjay]

6 minutes ago, sferic said:

We certainly will be monitoring this !

And if it doesn't look to pan out up there you can always stay in Lynbrook.   I do think the entire subforum sees accumulating snow though. 

[Rjay]

Even @Juliancolton who's just south of Plattsburgh or something.  

[sferic]

5 minutes ago, Rjay said:

And if it doesn't look to pan out up there you can always stay in Lynbrook.   I do think the entire subforum sees accumulating snow though. 

I can't even if I wanted to; but I can see it via several webcams

[Northof78]

Nam well north...

[HVSnowLover]

NAM probably gonna be way north although I don’t bother taking it seriously after 60 hours 

[Northof78]

[SI Mailman]

[Northof78]

Crush job...

[friedmators]

NAM is a bomb.

[HVSnowLover]

The air north of nyc is so dry with this but enough of an east wind will eventually overcome it I think south of I84 

[SI Mailman]

We getting NAM'd good on this run.  

[Northof78]

Prob 1-2’ per the NAM, widespread 1.5” to 2” QPF 

[sferic]

@crossbowftw3Might have to go back afterall to Lynbrook since here in Liberty will not be the sweet spot

[HVSnowLover]

Yep the NAM gets it’s done L

4 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

The air north of nyc is so dry with this but enough of an east wind will eventually overcome it I think south of I84 

yep NAM gets it done what a bomb 

[SI Mailman]

Clown map and it's still snowing at hr 84

[TriPol]

3 minutes ago, SI Mailman said:

We getting NAM'd good on this run.  

So two nights ago, the NAM was just coming into range and it was trustworthy. Last night, it wasn't trustworthy. Is the NAM trustworthy tonight?

[kat5hurricane]

There's that trend north again, seen it so many times in setups like this.  Don't want it trending too far north for us coasties but it's just the NAM so...

[L.I.Pete]

Had a strong feeling we were going to see one of those crazy-ass NAM runs tonight.


.

[White Gorilla]

20 minutes ago, TriPol said:

So two nights ago, the NAM was just coming into range and it was trustworthy. Last night, it wasn't trustworthy. Is the NAM trustworthy tonight?

Depends on what the other models look like.  

[HVSnowLover]

1 minute ago, TriPol said:

So two nights ago, the NAM was just coming into range and it was trustworthy. Last night, it wasn't trustworthy. Is the NAM trustworthy tonight?

Not yet 

[eduggs]

1.4 - 2.2" liquid across the entire area on the NAM through 84 hours and still snowing at the end. Ratios above 10:1 for at least part of the event. Gorgeous run.